#以太坊从6月低点反弹22% Join the Golden Peak Club chat room $1507 → $1848, whales scooped up $950 million in a week, and ETF funds have turned positive for the first time in five weeks. However, leverage in the futures market is also climbing—are we witnessing a trend reversal, or is it another 'wolf is coming' scenario?
In June, the crypto market's sentiment flipped faster than expected.
At the beginning of the month, Ethereum hit a year-to-date low of $1507 amidst a wave of pessimism. It had plummeted over 22% in just a few days from above $2000 at the end of May. The positive mentions of Ethereum on social media dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the market was thick with a sense of 'surrender.'
However, as of June 16, ETH has rebounded to around $1,771, up about 22% from the lows, and on June 14, it stood above the monthly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price, around $1,705). In just one week, nearly $1 billion in whale capital surged into the market.
The rebound is real, but the word 'bottom' still needs a question mark.
1. Key technical signals: VWAP recovery and ETF capital inflow.
The most noteworthy technical signal in this rebound is that Ethereum has once again stood above the monthly VWAP.
VWAP is a core indicator used by many institutional trading desks to determine the boundary between 'accumulation' and 'distribution.' On June 14, ETH's closing price returned above this line—this isn't an isolated signal. Looking back at April 6 and May 1, ETH broke through the monthly VWAP twice, triggering short-term gains of about 19% and 7%, respectively.
What’s even more interesting is the pattern of repetition: every time after breaking the VWAP, the spot ETF capital flow tends to turn positive within a few days.
This time is no exception. On June 15, Ethereum's spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $22.5 million, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day net inflow of $17.6189 million, leading the pack. This positive capital flow ended nearly a month-long trend of net outflows from ETFs from May 11 to June 12.
Meanwhile, Fidelity's Ethereum ETF recorded a client capital inflow of $29 million in the week ending June 10, marking the highest weekly total since April 2026. The institutional 'vanguard' seems to have already made their moves.
2. On-chain data support: whales are 'quietly accumulating.'
If ETF capital flow represents the 'clear signal' of institutional sentiment, then on-chain data reveals the moves of another group of players in the shadows.
According to data tracked by Santiment, the holdings of whale addresses surged from about 124.85 million ETH on June 10 to approximately 125.4 million ETH now. In just one week, they increased their holdings by about $950 million—this is the fastest accumulation rate since 2026.
What's more noteworthy is the timing: whales aren’t chasing after the rebound; they’ve been buying throughout the price decline. Around June 7, the on-chain selling pressure visibly weakened, and the net position indicator for exchanges shifted from net inflow to net outflow—this means holders are more inclined to transfer ETH to cold wallets for long-term storage rather than sell.
Research firm Swissblock pointed out in its Altcoin Vector report that ETH is trapped in a 'long-term surrender phase'—this persistent pressure typically only forms market bottoms once sellers are exhausted. The continuous accumulation by whales and outflows from exchanges precisely indicate that selling power is waning.
3. Risks that cannot be ignored: leverage is rising alongside the rebound.
However, the most concerning signal in this rebound lies within the derivatives market.
Open interest in ETH futures has surged from about $8.86 billion at the beginning of June to roughly $9.96 billion, peaking at $10.27 billion at one point. Meanwhile, the open interest in ETH perpetual contracts on Binance steadily climbed in June, reaching 3.67 million ETH by June 11, just 0.8% below the exchange's historical peak.
A healthy bottom usually forms after the clearance of leverage. But the current situation is quite the opposite—prices are rebounding, and leverage is simultaneously being re-accumulated. These crowded long positions appear quite fragile in severe volatility.
BeInCrypto's analysis bluntly states that the rise in open interest in futures indicates "this is a leverage-driven rebound, and the bottom has not been confirmed yet." If the market turns down again, these leveraged longs will face massive liquidation pressure, which could accelerate the decline.
In conclusion: the rebound is real, but don't rush to shout 'bull's back.'
Ethereum rebounded 22% from $1,507 to $1,771, with technicals recovering VWAP, ETF capital inflows, and whales continuously accumulating—these are indeed positive signals. From an on-chain perspective, sellers are weakening; from a capital flow perspective, institutions are returning.
But the rising leverage in the futures market casts a shadow over this rebound. History repeatedly tells us that true bottoms often emerge from the silence after leverage is cleared, not from the noisy surge of leverage and prices.
Currently, the support levels are seen at $1,624 and $1,507, while the confirmation signal above requires a daily closing price to break through $1,851. Until $1,851 is effectively breached, this 22% rebound is more likely a breather in a downtrend rather than a signal of trend reversal.
For investors, rather than getting tangled up between 'bull's back' and 'baiting the longs,' it’s better to focus on two indicators: whether ETF capital inflows can continue and whether futures leverage begins to cool off. The former determines institutional sentiment, while the latter determines the quality of the rebound.
The rebound can happen quickly, but confirming the bottom always takes time.
