Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says that quantum threats to blockchain are overstated today. He argues that the industry already knows how to build quantum-resistant systems, but lacks the efficiency and hardware compatibility to make the transition.
In a recent podcast discussion, he described quantum as a "big red flag," adding that the real urgency will only come when military quantum standards show reliable progress.
Quantum technology is not a real issue for digital currencies
Hoskinson explained that blockchains could migrate to quantum-resistant encryption, but the trade-off in performance is significant.
Hoskinson said that "the protocols to do this are about 10 times slower and about 10 times more expensive to run."
He pointed out that no network wants to sacrifice traffic to secure the future, clarifying,
"I have a thousand transactions per second. Now I will do a hundred transactions per second, but I am quantum-resistant. No one wants to be that person."
Standards remain the gateway to entry
The founder of Cardano linked delays in quantum security to standardization. Until early government guidance came down, the sector risked adopting algorithms that would become obsolete or unsupported by that time.
He said we had to wait until the U.S. government wrote the standards, referencing FIPS 203–206 under the post-quantum encryption program at NIST.
Now hardware vendors have guidance to build silicon accelerated for post-quantum algorithms.
Hoskinson highlighted why this matters for blockchain performance: "If you choose a non-standard protocol... you will be 100 times slower than things accelerated by hardware."
It was noted that compliance with NIST ensures speed and security without locking networks into ineffective encryption for a decade.
This represents a turning point. Standards post-quantum are now available, and the U.S. government has begun adopting them.
Major players in infrastructure like Cloudflare have already integrated PQ key exchange into public traffic. It indicates that the pressure for migration is slowly increasing across internet security layers.
The quantum risk for digital currencies is time-bound, not immediate
Hoskinson's viewpoint reflects the broader sentiment in cryptographic research. Quantum threats to blockchain signatures are real, but they are not current.
Researchers and financial security analysts still view CRQC-level systems as a 2030 event rather than an immediate threat. The risks stem from when to transition, not whether to transition.
Now this timeline has a reference clock. Hoskinson stated that "DARPA has a program called QBI, a quantum blockchain-based initiative."
According to him, the program evaluates 11 companies to determine whether practical quantum computers could exist widely by 2033.
Describing QBI as the clearest general standard for journalists following the progress, he added,
"The military needs to know — when do we upgrade our encryption and how do we do it?"
Recent studies support his caution. While quantum research continues — from topological qubit work like Microsoft’s Majorana devices to large-scale deployments in communication infrastructure — there is no evidence indicating an imminent collapse in encryption.
The transition post-quantum continues, but cost, latency, and ecosystem fragmentation represent obstacles for blockchains.
Why it matters
Hoskinson's comments often clarify the debate driven more by speculation than by engineering data. The design of quantum-secure blockchain exists, but activating it too early slows networks, raises transaction costs, and alienates developer tools.
With the completion of NIST standards and the formation of roadmaps for devices, networks are moving towards planning, not panic.
Most experts believe that the transition will happen in the next decade. Hoskinson supported this view:
"Most smart people believe there is a strong chance we will have something in the 2030s."
Until then, efficiency, competition, and hardware acceleration support will determine when blockchains transition to quantum-resistant encryption.