$BTC The interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan since the end of negative rates have been followed by significant corrections in BTC:
BOJ Event
Approximate BTC movement afterwards
March/2024
-20% to -25%
July/2024 (0.10% → 0.25%)
-18% to -30% depending on the analyzed period
January/2025
-20% to -30%
December/2025
-20% to -30%
The most famous case was the increase in July 2024. BTC dropped from about $62,000 to $49,500 in just a few days, a decline of around 18% to 20%, while some measurements approached 30% in the following period.
dollarliquidity.com · 2
If the BOJ raises to 1% tomorrow, could BTC drop?
Yes, it could create a negative impact.
But there are two possibilities:
Scenario 1 — Already priced in (less impact)
If the market already expects the hike to 1%, part of the movement might already be baked into the prices. In this case, BTC could even rally after the announcement.
Scenario 2 — Aggressive BOJ tone (more dangerous)
If the BOJ:
raises to 1%;
indicates further hikes;
or significantly strengthens the yen;
then we could see another round of carry trade position closures, reducing global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets like BTC and altcoins.
Reuters · 1
What I would watch for tomorrow
USD/JPY
If it drops sharply (yen strengthening), it’s a warning sign for BTC.
Nikkei Futures
Sharp declines in Japan usually contaminate global markets.
BTC Open Interest
If there’s an increase in OI while the price drops, it may indicate upcoming liquidations.
Funding Rate
Positive funding and many longs open increase the risk of a cleanup.
BOJ Event
Approximate BTC movement afterwards
March/2024
-20% to -25%
July/2024 (0.10% → 0.25%)
-18% to -30% depending on the analyzed period
January/2025
-20% to -30%
December/2025
-20% to -30%
The most famous case was the increase in July 2024. BTC dropped from about $62,000 to $49,500 in just a few days, a decline of around 18% to 20%, while some measurements approached 30% in the following period.
dollarliquidity.com · 2
If the BOJ raises to 1% tomorrow, could BTC drop?
Yes, it could create a negative impact.
But there are two possibilities:
Scenario 1 — Already priced in (less impact)
If the market already expects the hike to 1%, part of the movement might already be baked into the prices. In this case, BTC could even rally after the announcement.
Scenario 2 — Aggressive BOJ tone (more dangerous)
If the BOJ:
raises to 1%;
indicates further hikes;
or significantly strengthens the yen;
then we could see another round of carry trade position closures, reducing global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets like BTC and altcoins.
Reuters · 1
What I would watch for tomorrow
USD/JPY
If it drops sharply (yen strengthening), it’s a warning sign for BTC.
Nikkei Futures
Sharp declines in Japan usually contaminate global markets.
BTC Open Interest
If there’s an increase in OI while the price drops, it may indicate upcoming liquidations.
Funding Rate
Positive funding and many longs open increase the risk of a cleanup.