$VELVET couldn't hold the bounce after the crash; I'm still shorting below 0.46371.
In the last 24 hours, we saw a drop of 75.3%, which can easily lead to the illusion that a rebound is due. However, what really matters in this market is not whether the 'drop is big enough' but whether the bounce can reclaim the structure. Currently, the price is still hovering around 0.43515. Although the 15m MACD has briefly flipped green, the MACD bars on the 1h and 4h timeframes are still on the bear side, indicating that this bounce feels more like a breather after a drop rather than a trend reversal.
I'm particularly concerned that the 4h structure hasn't been repaired. The price remains below the 4h MA25 and also under the middle band of the BOLL; the 1h timeframe is similarly below the MA25, with an RSI of only 32.7. It's normal for some traders to try and catch the bounce, but as long as it can't reclaim 0.46371, the bearish mainline remains intact.
In terms of trading, I'm not chasing the deepest wick; I'm first looking to see if 0.40491 can be breached again. If that level fails, I'll be watching the intraday low at 0.35286. Conversely, if the price reclaims 0.46371, I'll halt this bearish outlook and won't force a 'weakness' narrative anymore.
A rebound after a crash isn't impossible, but until it takes back key levels, it's just noise in the bearish trend.
In the last 24 hours, we saw a drop of 75.3%, which can easily lead to the illusion that a rebound is due. However, what really matters in this market is not whether the 'drop is big enough' but whether the bounce can reclaim the structure. Currently, the price is still hovering around 0.43515. Although the 15m MACD has briefly flipped green, the MACD bars on the 1h and 4h timeframes are still on the bear side, indicating that this bounce feels more like a breather after a drop rather than a trend reversal.
I'm particularly concerned that the 4h structure hasn't been repaired. The price remains below the 4h MA25 and also under the middle band of the BOLL; the 1h timeframe is similarly below the MA25, with an RSI of only 32.7. It's normal for some traders to try and catch the bounce, but as long as it can't reclaim 0.46371, the bearish mainline remains intact.
In terms of trading, I'm not chasing the deepest wick; I'm first looking to see if 0.40491 can be breached again. If that level fails, I'll be watching the intraday low at 0.35286. Conversely, if the price reclaims 0.46371, I'll halt this bearish outlook and won't force a 'weakness' narrative anymore.
A rebound after a crash isn't impossible, but until it takes back key levels, it's just noise in the bearish trend.