爱生活的晴
--
The wind has changed!
Recently, the wind has changed.
On one side, French President Macron visited China, shaking hands and emphasizing the vow of 'Sino-French friendship.'
On the other side, UK Prime Minister Starmer, who has always been 'ambiguous,' suddenly changed his tone, publicly delivering a speech to show goodwill towards China, acknowledging China's superpower status, clearly stating the need to strengthen trade relations with China, and mentioning that he plans to visit China soon.
The UK is different from France.
France is the kind of player who often comes to visit us, only to go back and regret it, cursing and complaining, while the UK is more straightforward; after visiting China in 2018, they haven't come back, neither visiting nor stopping the criticism.
Thus, in terms of geopolitical relations, Sino-British ties are worse.
Then, how did Europe, which once followed the US in shouting about 'de-risking,' suddenly line up to cozy up to us?
Did they suddenly fall in love with China?
No, it's just interests.
Europe is now clearly feeling a huge crisis.
First, the once big brother (the US) completely excludes the EU from the table.
A few days ago, Trump announced 28 proposals, directly ignoring Europe and planning to sign contracts with Russia to halt the Russia-Ukraine war.
In reality, Trump has always looked down on these old gentlemen (younger brothers) in Europe; after so many years of the Russia-Ukraine war, the result is that Russia has gained the upper hand.
So the best outcome is that the interests belong to the US, the land belongs to Russia, and the debts belong to Europe.
This aligns with Trump's business thinking.
But from Europe's perspective, the Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for nearly three years, their own blood is about to be drained, energy prices have skyrocketed, manufacturing has flowed out, and inflation is soaring. They thought that by following the big brother in the US and jointly attacking Russia, they would enjoy the benefits.
What happened?
The US took the lion's share of the benefits. In recent years, through the Inflation Reduction Act, they have been heavily subsidizing and forcibly drawing European manufacturing to the US, and the natural gas sold to Europe is several times the local price.
What’s even more terrifying is that Trump has defined 'America First' as an irreversible top strategy.
In Trump's logic, the EU is not just an ally, but also a delinquent tenant and a competitive opportunist. The tariff stick could strike Germany's cars, France's wine, or the UK's finance at any moment.
So the European talent finally woke up; it turns out that at the big brother’s table, they are not diners but rather a dish on the menu...
At this time, showing goodwill to China has become the only bargaining chip in Europe’s hands.
They need to use this huge market and supply chain in China to balance the pressure from the US, telling Trump: 'Don’t push me too hard; I still have Plan B.' This includes South Korea frequently showing goodwill to China recently, which follows the same logic.
But Trump currently doesn’t care about the EU's choices; whether it's A or B doesn't matter; he can cut them off whenever he likes. In the face of absolute strength, Europe feels like a discarded child of an era, very confused, so they still need to talk to China.
Because stripping away geopolitics and looking at the economic account, Europe really has no choice.
The current European economy has already slipped into the ICU. As Europe’s locomotive, Germany's GDP has been shrinking continuously, and the UK has fallen into the mire of 'stagflation' with ongoing strikes.
Their once-proud automotive industry has already entered a state of collapse in the face of electrification. The green transformation they need, such as photovoltaic panels, lithium batteries, and raw materials, is all in China's hands.
Europeans are very clear: want to solve inflation? It cannot be separated from high-cost-effective products from the East. Want to go green? It cannot do without the technology and capacity from the East. Want to sell luxury cars and high-end goods? It cannot do without the huge purchasing power of the East.
In the past, when life was good, Europe could talk about 'human rights,' discuss 'values,' and casually criticize competitors like the East, but now they can't even afford to eat, so what face do they have left?
The goodwill from the UK Prime Minister is the most typical return to British pragmatic realism:
On the surface, it’s all about ideology, but in their hearts, it’s all about business.
So, how should we view Europe’s frequent goodwill gestures?
First, don’t get too excited.
I think a line from the official response is very good. China does not need any country to prove its status.
Other countries showing goodwill and treating themselves as close brothers should also be on guard. Because this is just a transaction of interests. Once the US gives them a little sweetener or applies greater pressure, they may change their tune at any time. This is the nature of 'fence-sitters.'
Second, make full use of it.
Since they want to use China to hedge against the US, we can also use Europe to completely break the US's encirclement. As long as Sino-European relations do not break down, it will be very difficult for the US to create a 'global anti-China alliance.'
Instead of deepening cooperation, we can use production capacity to alleviate European inflation, using European technology, capital, and markets to buy time for our industrial upgrades. Once interests are bound and a dependency relationship is formed, Europe will completely lose its combat effectiveness.
Third, maintain composure.
No matter how they change, we only need to grasp one core, cultivate our internal strength. As long as China’s industrial chain is irreplaceable and China’s market size is the largest in the world, they will have to come, have to talk, and have to show goodwill.
Overall, Europe’s collective 'defection' this time is not due to a sudden awakening of conscience, but due to the pressure of the situation. At the same time, this may be a profound reorganization of the global geopolitical landscape.
Last night, Trump released the latest national security report at the White House, summarized in one sentence:
I’m withdrawing first, focusing on closing the door to work on the economy, solving domestic problems, reshaping the Americas, and reorganizing the supply chain. As for China, you’d better hold on, and as for funding, find a way yourself.
One is more debt-ridden than the other; relying on monkeys to pay to contain China’s development is, of course, unrealistic.
So we see that countries in Europe, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are lining up to come under our 'tree' to seek common development, while another category is pretending to be strong, like Japan, actually to achieve the self-interest of the military-industrial complex.
If the US really, as Trump said, wants to enter a stage of global strategic contraction, then its absolute dominance over the old order in East Asia will rapidly dissolve, and a new order will soon form.
For us, peripheral geopolitical friction will phase out.
Being able to reach today tells us a truth: only strong strength is the only reason for opponents to sit down and listen to you calmly.
This is a good thing.
Next, we will ramp up efforts, pushing all domestic production capacity outwards, with trade covering the globe, and foreign trade imports and exports will correspondingly enter a prosperous phase.
Using foreign demand to drive the economic engine will accelerate the exit from deflation, and of course, it will also nurture countless wealth opportunities. Especially many industries in coastal cities will become the upper part of the K-shaped differentiation.
Recently, the wind has changed.
On one side, French President Macron visited China, shaking hands and emphasizing the vow of 'Sino-French friendship.'
On the other side, UK Prime Minister Starmer, who has always been 'ambiguous,' suddenly changed his tone, publicly delivering a speech to show goodwill towards China, acknowledging China's superpower status, clearly stating the need to strengthen trade relations with China, and mentioning that he plans to visit China soon.
The UK is different from France.
France is the kind of player who often comes to visit us, only to go back and regret it, cursing and complaining, while the UK is more straightforward; after visiting China in 2018, they haven't come back, neither visiting nor stopping the criticism.
Thus, in terms of geopolitical relations, Sino-British ties are worse.
Then, how did Europe, which once followed the US in shouting about 'de-risking,' suddenly line up to cozy up to us?
Did they suddenly fall in love with China?
No, it's just interests.
Europe is now clearly feeling a huge crisis.
First, the once big brother (the US) completely excludes the EU from the table.
A few days ago, Trump announced 28 proposals, directly ignoring Europe and planning to sign contracts with Russia to halt the Russia-Ukraine war.
In reality, Trump has always looked down on these old gentlemen (younger brothers) in Europe; after so many years of the Russia-Ukraine war, the result is that Russia has gained the upper hand.
So the best outcome is that the interests belong to the US, the land belongs to Russia, and the debts belong to Europe.
This aligns with Trump's business thinking.
But from Europe's perspective, the Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for nearly three years, their own blood is about to be drained, energy prices have skyrocketed, manufacturing has flowed out, and inflation is soaring. They thought that by following the big brother in the US and jointly attacking Russia, they would enjoy the benefits.
What happened?
The US took the lion's share of the benefits. In recent years, through the Inflation Reduction Act, they have been heavily subsidizing and forcibly drawing European manufacturing to the US, and the natural gas sold to Europe is several times the local price.
What’s even more terrifying is that Trump has defined 'America First' as an irreversible top strategy.
In Trump's logic, the EU is not just an ally, but also a delinquent tenant and a competitive opportunist. The tariff stick could strike Germany's cars, France's wine, or the UK's finance at any moment.
So the European talent finally woke up; it turns out that at the big brother’s table, they are not diners but rather a dish on the menu...
At this time, showing goodwill to China has become the only bargaining chip in Europe’s hands.
They need to use this huge market and supply chain in China to balance the pressure from the US, telling Trump: 'Don’t push me too hard; I still have Plan B.' This includes South Korea frequently showing goodwill to China recently, which follows the same logic.
But Trump currently doesn’t care about the EU's choices; whether it's A or B doesn't matter; he can cut them off whenever he likes. In the face of absolute strength, Europe feels like a discarded child of an era, very confused, so they still need to talk to China.
Because stripping away geopolitics and looking at the economic account, Europe really has no choice.
The current European economy has already slipped into the ICU. As Europe’s locomotive, Germany's GDP has been shrinking continuously, and the UK has fallen into the mire of 'stagflation' with ongoing strikes.
Their once-proud automotive industry has already entered a state of collapse in the face of electrification. The green transformation they need, such as photovoltaic panels, lithium batteries, and raw materials, is all in China's hands.
Europeans are very clear: want to solve inflation? It cannot be separated from high-cost-effective products from the East. Want to go green? It cannot do without the technology and capacity from the East. Want to sell luxury cars and high-end goods? It cannot do without the huge purchasing power of the East.
In the past, when life was good, Europe could talk about 'human rights,' discuss 'values,' and casually criticize competitors like the East, but now they can't even afford to eat, so what face do they have left?
The goodwill from the UK Prime Minister is the most typical return to British pragmatic realism:
On the surface, it’s all about ideology, but in their hearts, it’s all about business.
So, how should we view Europe’s frequent goodwill gestures?
First, don’t get too excited.
I think a line from the official response is very good. China does not need any country to prove its status.
Other countries showing goodwill and treating themselves as close brothers should also be on guard. Because this is just a transaction of interests. Once the US gives them a little sweetener or applies greater pressure, they may change their tune at any time. This is the nature of 'fence-sitters.'
Second, make full use of it.
Since they want to use China to hedge against the US, we can also use Europe to completely break the US's encirclement. As long as Sino-European relations do not break down, it will be very difficult for the US to create a 'global anti-China alliance.'
Instead of deepening cooperation, we can use production capacity to alleviate European inflation, using European technology, capital, and markets to buy time for our industrial upgrades. Once interests are bound and a dependency relationship is formed, Europe will completely lose its combat effectiveness.
Third, maintain composure.
No matter how they change, we only need to grasp one core, cultivate our internal strength. As long as China’s industrial chain is irreplaceable and China’s market size is the largest in the world, they will have to come, have to talk, and have to show goodwill.
Overall, Europe’s collective 'defection' this time is not due to a sudden awakening of conscience, but due to the pressure of the situation. At the same time, this may be a profound reorganization of the global geopolitical landscape.
Last night, Trump released the latest national security report at the White House, summarized in one sentence:
I’m withdrawing first, focusing on closing the door to work on the economy, solving domestic problems, reshaping the Americas, and reorganizing the supply chain. As for China, you’d better hold on, and as for funding, find a way yourself.
One is more debt-ridden than the other; relying on monkeys to pay to contain China’s development is, of course, unrealistic.
So we see that countries in Europe, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are lining up to come under our 'tree' to seek common development, while another category is pretending to be strong, like Japan, actually to achieve the self-interest of the military-industrial complex.
If the US really, as Trump said, wants to enter a stage of global strategic contraction, then its absolute dominance over the old order in East Asia will rapidly dissolve, and a new order will soon form.
For us, peripheral geopolitical friction will phase out.
Being able to reach today tells us a truth: only strong strength is the only reason for opponents to sit down and listen to you calmly.
This is a good thing.
Next, we will ramp up efforts, pushing all domestic production capacity outwards, with trade covering the globe, and foreign trade imports and exports will correspondingly enter a prosperous phase.
Using foreign demand to drive the economic engine will accelerate the exit from deflation, and of course, it will also nurture countless wealth opportunities. Especially many industries in coastal cities will become the upper part of the K-shaped differentiation.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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