On December 4th, at the Binance Blockchain Week, Wall Street renowned analyst and BitMine Chairman Tom Lee delivered a keynote speech titled (The Cryptocurrency Supercycle Still Exists). He pointed out that the true era of crypto gold has just begun, providing a target price of $300,000 for Bitcoin and $20,000 for Ethereum by 2026, and elaborated on why Ethereum's value is severely underestimated, as well as why the traditional Bitcoin 'four-year cycle' no longer applies.
Article Author: Yuliya
Source: PANews
The era of crypto gold has not yet ended, and tokenization is the core narrative this year.
At the beginning of the speech, Tom Lee reviewed the investment returns of the past decade, emphasizing the astonishing growth potential of cryptocurrency.
He pointed out that if you had invested in the S&P 500 index in December 2016, your funds would have grown about three times; investing in gold might have yielded four times; if you had been wise enough to invest in NVIDIA, the return could have reached 65 times. But if you invested in Bitcoin ten years ago, the return rate would be an astonishing 112 times. The asset that outperformed Bitcoin is Ethereum, with a ten-year return close to 500 times.
Despite the poor price trend in the crypto market from 2025 to now, we have witnessed many significant fundamental positive events this year:
The shift in government attitude: the US government has shown a pro-crypto stance, setting a new standard for the Western world.
Strategic Bitcoin reserves: Several states and the federal government in the US have planned or executed strategic Bitcoin reserves, which is a significant progress.
ETF success: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has become one of its five highest-fee income products, which is unprecedented for a product that has only been launched for a year and a half.
Traditional finance entry: JPMorgan, as a long-time critic of cryptocurrency, is now launching JPM Coin on Ethereum. Tokenization has become a priority for all mainstream financial institutions.
Breakthrough of native products: The crypto market has seen two or three native products that change the way traditional financial decisions are made. For example, the prediction market PolyMarket provides almost 'crystal ball'-like information; Tether has proven itself to be one of the top ten most profitable banks globally.
At the same time, Tom Lee believes that the core narrative for 2025 is tokenization. It all started with stablecoins, which is Ethereum's 'ChatGPT moment,' where Wall Street suddenly realized that simply tokenizing US dollars could yield huge profits. Now, financial institutions generally believe that tokenization will change the entire financial industry, with BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink even calling it 'the greatest and most exciting invention since self-reconciling accounting methods.'
He further pointed out that what Larry Fink called 'the beginning of tokenization of all assets' unlocks far more value than people imagine. Tokenization has five major advantages: fractional ownership, cost reduction, 24/7 global trading, higher transparency, and theoretically better liquidity.
This is merely the basic element. Most people's understanding of tokenization is just a simple asset division, but the real revolution lies in the second method: 'factoring' the future value of the business.
Taking Tesla as an example. We can split and tokenize it in multiple dimensions:
Time tokenization: purchasing the net present value of Tesla's profits in specific years (e.g., 2036).
Product tokenization: purchasing the future value of specific product lines (e.g., electric vehicles, autonomous driving, Optimus Prime robots).
Geographic tokenization: purchasing the future profits of specific regions such as its Chinese market.
Financial statement tokenization: purchasing the tokenized portion of its subscription income.
Founder value tokenization: it can even strip away the market valuation of Elon Musk himself and trade it.
This method will create significant value release, and BitMine is actively seeking and promoting projects that develop in this area.
Tom Lee firmly believes that the golden age of cryptocurrency has not passed, and the potential for future growth is immense. He explained that currently, there are only 4.4 million Bitcoin wallets holding over $10,000 globally. In comparison, there are nearly 900 million retirement accounts globally that have over $10,000. If all these accounts allocate Bitcoin, it would imply a 200-fold increase in adoption rate. A Bank of America survey shows that 67% of fund managers still have zero allocation to Bitcoin. Wall Street hopes to tokenize all financial products, and when real estate is included, this is a market approaching tens of trillions of dollars. Therefore, the best era for cryptocurrency is still ahead.
The Bitcoin four-year cycle has failed, and it will reach a new high in January next year.
Despite being optimistic about the long-term prospects of cryptocurrency, Tom Lee candidly stated that the current performance of the crypto market is akin to a 'winter,' in stark contrast to traditional assets. Gold has risen 61% so far this year, and the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 20%, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have negative returns. Arca's Jeff Dorman wrote a great article titled: 'The Unexplained Sell-Off.'
He further pointed out that the turning point for Bitcoin occurred on October 10. Before that, Bitcoin had risen 36% within the year, and then it fell all the way down. There are many explanations in the market: quantum computing risks, four-year cycle theory, the historic liquidation event on October 10, AI stocks diverting attention, rumors that Strategy might sell Bitcoin, MSCI possibly excluding digital asset treasury companies from the index, and Tether's rating downgrade, etc.
But Tom Lee believes this is closely related to deleveraging. After the collapse of FTX, the market took eight weeks to restore price discovery. And from the liquidation event on October 10 until now, it has been seven and a half weeks, close to the price recovery period.
To more accurately assess the market, Tom Lee revealed that Fundstrat hired legendary market-timing expert Tom DeMark and, based on his advice, significantly slowed down the purchasing speed of Ethereum, reducing the weekly purchase amount by half to 50,000 coins. But recently, BitMine has resumed increasing its holdings, purchasing nearly 100,000 ETH last week, double that of the previous two weeks. This week's purchase volume is even more because they believe Ethereum's price has hit bottom.
Additionally, Tom Lee also discussed the 'Bitcoin four-year cycle' that troubles everyone. He pointed out that it has accurately predicted the tops and bottoms three times in history. Mainstream explanations are usually related to halving cycles, monetary policies, etc. However, the Fundstrat team found that the 'copper-to-gold ratio' and the 'ISM manufacturing index' (i.e., traditional economic cycles) have even stronger correlations with Bitcoin cycles.
According to Tom Lee, the past copper-to-gold ratio (measuring the ratio of industrial activity to the monetary base) and the ISM index have shown a highly correlated four-year cycle with Bitcoin's price. However, this time, neither of these indicators has followed the four-year cycle. The copper-to-gold ratio should have peaked this year but did not; the ISM index has stayed below 50 for nearly three and a half years without peaking.
Therefore, he believes that since both the industrial cycle and the copper-to-gold ratio cycle driving Bitcoin have failed, we have no reason to believe Bitcoin itself should still follow a four-year cycle. However, he does not believe the price of Bitcoin has peaked and dares to bet that Bitcoin will reach a new high in January next year.
Ethereum is experiencing a '1971 moment,' the severely undervalued core logic
'Ethereum in 2025 is experiencing its own '1971 moment.' Tom Lee pointed out in his speech that just as Wall Street created countless financial products to maintain the reserve status of the dollar back then, today, in the face of the wave of tokenization of all assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, Ethereum has become Wall Street's preferred platform.
Tom Lee quoted the views of Bitcoin's early developer Eric Voorhees, stating that 'Ethereum has won the smart contract war.' He pointed out that almost all mainstream financial institutions are building products on Ethereum, and the vast majority of RWA tokenization products have appeared on Ethereum. Under the narrative of tokenization, Ethereum's utility value is rapidly increasing. At the same time, Ethereum itself is also continuously upgrading, including the recent completion of the Fusaka upgrade. From the price chart, Ethereum has begun to break out after consolidating for five years, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is also set to break out...
Moreover, as a PoS blockchain, Tom Lee believes that Ethereum treasury companies are gradually changing the traditional roles on Wall Street. These companies are essentially crypto infrastructure businesses that provide security to the network by staking Ethereum while earning staking rewards as a source of income. At the same time, treasury companies act as a bridge between traditional finance and DeFi, promoting the integration and development of both. The key to measuring the success of such companies is their stock liquidity.
Strategy is currently ranked 17th in trading volume in the US stock market, with a daily trading volume of nearly $4 billion, surpassing JPMorgan.
BitMine was established only three to four months ago and has become the 39th ranked stock in US trading volume, with a daily trading volume reaching $1.5 billion. Its trading volume has surpassed that of General Electric (GE), which is 30 times its market value, and is close to Salesforce, which is 20 times its market value.
Currently, Strategy and BitMine account for 92% of the total trading volume of all crypto treasury companies. Among them, Strategy's strategy is to become a 'digital credit tool,' while BitMine's strategy is to connect Wall Street, Ethereum, and DeFi.
Based on this, Tom Lee provided the following judgment through a price prediction model:
Assuming Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in the coming months.
If the ETH/BTC exchange rate returns to its eight-year average level, the price of Ethereum would be $12,000.
If it returns to the peak of 2021, the price will be $22,000.
And if Ethereum really becomes the financial payment track of the future, with an exchange rate of 0.25, then the price of Ethereum could reach as high as $62,000.
Therefore, he believes that Ethereum's price of $3,000 is severely undervalued.
Community Q&A
During the community Q&A session, Tom Lee discussed the decisive impact of the macro environment on cryptocurrency, the fundamental value of Ethereum in the tokenization era, and the role of BitMine in it, giving his bold price prediction for the end of 2026.
Host: How do macro factors such as monetary policy or regulation, besides affecting prices, truly influence the long-term adoption and popularity of cryptocurrency?
Tom Lee: Macro factors are absolutely crucial. Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller once said that 80% of the success of an investment depends on macro factors. This means that even if you study a project thoroughly and your judgment is accurate, it only determines 20% of the success or failure.
Why do I say this? Because cryptocurrency does not exist in a vacuum; it is greatly affected by the macro environment. For example:
Regulatory risk: This is the most direct; a policy could determine the life or death of a project or sector.
Monetary policy: Whether the Federal Reserve is easing or tightening directly affects global liquidity. When liquidity is abundant, assets like gold and Bitcoin naturally find it easier to rise.
Market sentiment: Price itself drives sentiment. The price drop after October 10 caused the entire market sentiment to collapse rapidly, with pessimism even comparable to the deep bear level of 2018.
Therefore, not understanding the macro environment makes it nearly impossible to succeed in the crypto world.
Host: There is a common question in the community: when financial institutions use Ethereum in the future, will they really need to hold ETH? Or will they only utilize Ethereum's technology, just like we use the Linux system but do not need to hold shares of the Linux company?
Tom Lee: This is a great question and directly touches on a core debate about Ethereum's future. Many people indeed believe that Wall Street will only treat Ethereum as a free, useful technical layer (L2) without caring about the ETH token itself.
But I believe this view overlooks a fundamental logic in the crypto world, which is 'fat protocols.' In simple terms, more value is captured at the protocol layer (like Ethereum) rather than the application layer.
I'll give a more relatable example: gamers and NVIDIA.
Assuming you are a top gaming expert, proficient in all popular games. You find that all these cool games rely on NVIDIA's graphics card support. At this point, you have two choices:
Spend money on games, buying various skins and items.
Buy NVIDIA stock while continuing to play games.
The outcome is obvious; those who choose the latter will become very wealthy because they are investing in the cornerstone of the entire gaming ecosystem.
The future perspective of banks regarding Ethereum is similar. When they tokenize and place trillions of assets on Ethereum, they are essentially betting their entire existence on this neutral blockchain. What they care about most is whether this cornerstone is 100% safe, stable, and reliable.
Historically, only Ethereum has achieved long-term 100% stable operation among mainstream public chains and is continuously upgrading. Therefore, to ensure its interests and have a voice in network development, it will necessarily participate deeply—whether by staking ETH or holding a large amount of ETH directly. It's like multinational banks must hold US dollars. If someone says, 'My business settles in US dollars, but I don't care about the value of the dollar,' doesn't that sound ridiculous? Similarly, when everything runs on Ethereum, everyone will care about the performance of ETH.
Host: If financial institutions really start to adopt Ethereum on a large scale as a financial track, what changes can we expect in Ethereum's price in the long run? Aside from the obvious answer of 'price increase,' could you analyze it from a deeper perspective?
Tom Lee: To predict Ethereum's future price, I believe the simplest and most effective way is to benchmark it against Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the value anchor of the crypto world, and if Bitcoin falls, no project can stand alone.
Therefore, the value of Ethereum ultimately depends on its value ratio relative to Bitcoin. As Ethereum plays an increasingly core role in the financial tokenization process, its total network value should continuously align more closely with Bitcoin. If one day, the network value of Ethereum can match Bitcoin's, then we would be discussing Ethereum at $200,000 each.
Host: Since you are so optimistic about Ethereum's long-term value and believe it will become a financial cornerstone, what kind of role do companies like BitMine plan to play in the grand future? What are its long-term business goals?
Tom Lee: We firmly believe that Ethereum will usher in an unprecedented 'super cycle.' The success of Bitcoin lies in its winning the title of 'digital gold,' becoming a recognized means of storing value. However, the story of the next decade will center around 'Wall Street asset tokenization.'
And there is a key point in this story that is often overlooked: liquidity. If you tokenize an asset but no one trades it, and there is no liquidity, then it is a failed asset. Therefore, Wall Street urgently needs to find partners in the crypto world that can provide liquidity and understand both languages. The Ethereum community is technically strong but not good at serving Wall Street; Wall Street is large but lacks an understanding of crypto natives. What BitMine aims to do is to become the bridge connecting Wall Street and the Ethereum world.
We not only hold a large amount of Ethereum, but more importantly, leverage our macro vision and financial resources to build communication and value channels between traditional finance and DeFi. With the exponential growth of the Ethereum ecosystem, as deep participants and builders, we will also reap tremendous rewards.
Host: You mentioned 'translators' and 'bridges,' and you yourself are one of Wall Street's earliest and most steadfast advocates of cryptocurrency. We are all very curious about how you initially entered this field. What was the opportunity that led you to have such firm beliefs about it?
Tom Lee: This goes back to 2017. At that time, I founded the independent research company Fundstrat. One day, I happened to see on TV that the price of Bitcoin had risen to $1,000. I immediately recalled 2013 when it was only $70, and I had discussed it with my colleagues at JPMorgan, but at that time, the mainstream view was that it was merely a tool for black market transactions.
My intuition tells me that nothing rises from $70 to $1,000 for no reason. So we spent an entire summer studying it. I found that although I didn't understand all the technical details, 97% of the price increase could be explained by the 'network effect,' which is the growth of wallet addresses and activity. I instantly understood: this is a network value asset!
When I first suggested to clients to allocate Bitcoin, I faced tremendous resistance and even lost a few important hedge fund clients. They thought I was crazy for recommending something 'without intrinsic value.' During that time, I was filled with passion, but the business suffered greatly, which was very torturous.
Until I remembered my early experiences. Before becoming a strategist, I researched wireless communications. In the early 1990s, mobile phones were considered 'toys for the rich,' and no one thought they would become mainstream; the prevailing view was that they were merely a supplement to landlines. But at that time, in my twenties, I genuinely felt how much convenience mobile phones brought to my social life.
At that moment, I realized a truth: only young people truly understand new technologies. The older generation tends to judge new things with their already fixed lifestyles. Therefore, our ability to understand cryptocurrency is not because we are particularly smart, but because we haven’t looked at it with outdated perspectives; instead, we tried to think from the viewpoint of young people.
So, if you have been in the crypto world for many years, congratulations, your persistence is remarkable. But at the same time, be cautious not to let your thinking become rigid. What really matters is what the young people in their twenties are doing now, what they care about. They might be more concerned about the social impact of a certain project; they may want to invest not in the entire Tesla company but in a specific future like the 'Optimus Prime Robot.' This is the future full of infinite possibilities that cryptocurrency will unlock for us.
Host: Tom, you are known for your bold predictions about the market. Please give us a price prediction for Bitcoin and Ethereum! Let's set the time for the end of 2026, how about that?
Tom Lee: My core judgment is that Bitcoin's four-year cycle will be broken. I believe it will reach a historic high as early as the beginning of 2026. If this judgment holds, Bitcoin's trend will resemble that of the US stock market. I predict that the US stock market will really take off in the second half of next year.
So, my prediction is that by the end of 2026, the price of Bitcoin will be about $300,000.
And if Bitcoin can reach this price, then Ethereum's performance will be phenomenal. I believe that by the end of next year, Ethereum may exceed $20,000.
Host: $300,000 for Bitcoin and $20,000 for Ethereum! We heard this first! Tom, we must invite you back next year to see if the prophecy comes true!
Tom Lee: If my prediction is wrong, I probably won't come back, haha.