Foresight News reports that André Dragosch, the research head at Bitwise Europe, stated at the BTC Prague conference that Bitcoin currently has up to 20% more downside potential, with the long-term holder cost basis pegged at around $48,000 being the "max pain" bottom scenario. He pointed out that there are several structural support levels below Bitcoin, including the 200-week moving average around $61,000, the realized price around $56,000, and the long-term holder cost basis around $48,000. Dragosch mentioned that Bitwise's "cycle bottom probability model" began to trend upwards last week, although on-chain indicators remain below the extreme levels seen at previous cycle bottoms. He attributed the recent selling pressure mainly to a net outflow of about $2 billion in ETPs weekly, equivalent to approximately 50,000 BTC being offloaded in the short term.

Galaxy Research's head of research, Alex Thorn, also stated that Bitcoin hasn't hit rock bottom yet. Out of 13 historical bottom indicators, only 4 have triggered so far. Galaxy's baseline scenario anticipates that Bitcoin's bottom will be between $40,000 and $46,000, with a timeframe extending to Q4 2026. On the altcoin front, Dragosch mentioned that the Bitwise altcoin sentiment index is currently showing no signals. Whether we kick off an alt season depends on the passage of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Polymarket is currently pricing the odds of this bill passing within the year at about 60%.