🔹 Key figures
Core PCE Price Index (core PCE, MoM): 0.2% — matched the forecast and repeats the previous figure.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (previous level of consumer sentiment): 53.3 against 52.0 expected.
Inflation expectations (UoM): 4.1% — decreased from the previous 4.5%.
This data is neutrally moderately positive: core inflation did not spike, consumer confidence increased, and inflation expectations decreased. This creates conditions for easing pressure on the risk asset market, which may support interest in crypto, particularly BTC.
🔎 Why specifically PCE and consumer expectations are key for the market
Core PCE is one of the main tools that the Federal Reserve (Fed) relies on for monetary policy.
Stable or moderate core inflation retains the possibility of rate cuts or freezes. In turn, this reduces the attractiveness of the dollar and makes risk assets (stocks, crypto) more appealing.
Consumer confidence and inflation expectation indicators often react to shifts in public sentiment and future trends — these are forward indicators capable of preceding movements in active markets. Some studies indicate a link between lower expected inflation and increased demand for crypto as a potential hedge.
⚠️ But — it's not that simple
Although Core PCE is currently at the target level, it is a monthly indicator. Any future jump (due to energy prices, politics, or supply shocks) could change the picture.
From history: the reaction of cryptocurrencies to macro indicators is not always direct and stable. There are studies showing that BTC volatility reacts more to news about regulation, hacking incidents, or the behavior of large players than to simple macro: inflation or unemployment data.
The correlation between crypto and traditional assets (stocks, risk investments) has increased. This means that crypto today more often reacts not to fundamental 'value' or 'scarcity' of currency, but to global capital flows and market sentiment.
🔭 My forecast (within #MoonManMacro)
If in the coming months Core PCE remains at ~0.2–0.3% (i.e., deflationary pressure is minimal), and consumer sentiment holds, the chance for a smooth return of investment appetite for risk assets is high. This could push BTC and leading altcoins into growth territory.
Even if the Fed decides not to lower the rate immediately, the risk market may receive a 'permit' from the relative stability of inflation and the feeling that the bottom has been passed. In this case, Bitcoin looks like an attractive 'safe haven' with moderate risk.
But the risks are real. Deteriorating geopolitics, energy shocks, new regulatory waves, or large liquidations can easily negate the positives from macro. Crypto is extremely sensitive to external shocks, even when macro is stable.
The best strategy right now is risk control + gradual entry. If you are buying, do it in parts, considering the potential for volatility.
✅ Conclusion Moon Man 567
Today's data is a small but important argument for the idea that the window for cryptocurrencies may open again. The Fed has less reason for new hikes, investors are getting a green light for risk assets — and BTC could become a coded player this season.
However, remember: the crypto market is not a macro indicator. It is a living ecosystem with its own irrationality. Therefore — keep your hands on the wheel, maintain a cool head, and enter wisely.
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