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⚠️THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE $200B MARKET DUMP

Most people saw the crash... BUT nobody saw what caused it.

So we explain the part the market is missing!🔥

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The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-yr yield below 4%. They've now cut 150 bps and the 30-yr is at 4.8%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed. If long yields keep rising, they won’t admit a policy mistake - they’ll just bring back QE. In the end, all roads lead to easing. $BTC

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How I see the market right now: 1) 75% probability: we’re about to finish crossing the chasm and enter the early-majority phase next year. If that happens, the classic 4-year cycles are dead. The market will have matured and will increasingly correlate with macro cycles and industry fundamentals rather than self-fulfilling narratives. 2) 20% probability: we’re still in the early-adopter phase and only now beginning to cross the chasm. Meaning we would likely enter a 1-3 year bear market while the industry finds itself and pushes toward early-majority adoption. In this case, the 4-year cycles could still be intact. 3) 5% probability: we get stuck in the chasm and never find true mainstream pmf, crypto is turning into a zero sum game and we will just PvP trade money from one to the other. Regulatory tailwinds, institutional adoption, and the accelerating fundamentals of our industry scream, in my opinion, that we’re in scenario 1), standing right in front of the biggest adoption wave crypto has ever seen, and likely ever will see. The 4 year cycles and simple narrative chasing are dead. And while the onchain online casino will always be part of our identity, it will shrink into a niche. It’s time for the industry to mature and start playing the serious game. An incredible decade lies ahead for those willing to evolve, and I’m betting basically all my money on the idea that this is only just getting started.

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📉 The selling activity from old Bitcoin holders (OGs) has clearly cooled down over the past few weeks. 💥 While the 90-day daily average was previously around 2 350 BTC, the spent UTXOs from these OGs have now returned to a more normal level, averaging roughly 1 000 BTC. In this chart, I only accounted for UTXOs older than 5 years. That corresponds to BTC originally bought at a maximum of around $30 000. 💡 Tracking spent UTXOs gives us insight into the selling pressure coming from these long-term holders. Whenever BTC that old starts moving, it is usually to be sold. When a UTXO sees its BTC move, we call it “spent”, and those movements are what we track here. 👉 As a result, this data suggests that selling pressure from OGs is easing, which gives the market a bit more breathing room. It worth noting that their selling pressure appears to be decreasing as the cycle progresses, with the STXO peaks (90-dma) from these OGs becoming lower and lower. $BTC

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Time to DCA Altcoins ! It’s that time again. This cycle has been tough for altcoin traders. Many didn’t perform as expected, which forces anyone who wants exposure to altcoins to be much more selective. For those who still want to get exposure, we’re now entering an interesting period to do so, if we look at overall altcoin trading volumes. 📊 This chart compares the aggregated 30-day altcoin trading volume for stablecoin quote pairs to its annual average. 👉🏼 We’ve entered again a buying zone, defined by 30-day volumes falling below the yearly average. 💡 This is a period that encourages DCA if you’re betting on a continuation of the bullish trend. — It’s a phase that can last for weeks or even months, giving enough time to optimize a DCA strategy with well-targeted entry points — ⚠️ However, we need to proceed with caution. The market context is difficult to read, and it’s essential to also prepare an invalidation strategy in order to protect capital if the market were to drop further.

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🗣️According to social data, crypto's top trending topics Friday are:

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