Recent blockchain data analysis reveals a significant increase in the whale ratio on Bitcoin exchanges, a metric that serves as a potential warning signal for the market. This indicator measures the ratio of the top 10 BTC inflows to exchanges relative to total inflows. An increasing ratio suggests that large players (whales) are depositing their assets on trading platforms more frequently.
Key analytical points:
1. Increase at the macro level (all exchanges):
According to the charts, the 14-day exponential moving average (EMA-14) of the whales' ratio on exchanges for all exchanges has reached 0.512. This is the second-highest value recorded since mid-September 2024. Values above 0.5 are usually considered a caution zone, as they indicate that a significant portion of inflows to exchanges is caused by whales, often with the intent to sell. This potential increase in selling pressure may hinder further price increases or even trigger a market correction.
2. A pronounced upward trend on Binance:
This upward trend is even more pronounced on the Binance exchange. The 14-day EMA for the ratio on Binance has risen to 0.427, the highest level since April 2025. Since Binance is the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, the increased activity of whales on this platform is particularly significant. It shows that major players are actively moving their assets to the market with the highest liquidity.
Conclusion:
The simultaneous increase in the whales' ratio on exchanges across the market, particularly on Binance, indicates that whales are transferring Bitcoin to exchanges, likely with the intent to sell and realize profits. This behavior usually increases selling pressure and can act as a strong resistance to further price increases.
As seen from the charts, this spike in the whales' ratio coincided with a recent price increase that halted, leading into a corrective phase. Therefore, traders should exercise caution!
