Behind the 7 million contracts of explosive orders is the main force's perfect plan to precisely clean up market noise.
Brothers, isn't the recent trend of SOL making your heart race? Watching the account balance shrink, the group is in a state of lament, and many people have started to doubt life. But please calm down and observe carefully: after the plunge, SOL has shown an abnormal stability, without continuous decline, without panic selling, but instead seems to be firmly supported by an invisible hand.
This stability is not weakness, but a clear signal that the main force's washout has ended. As an old player who has experienced multiple bull and bear transitions, I dare say that SOL is brewing the second wave of the main rise, and this wave is the real opportunity for significant gains.
1 Market Appearance: The Truth Behind the Panic Sell-off
The recent decline does indeed appear to be panic-inducing on the surface. Both bulls and bears are suffering, and the contract market is in chaos. But peeling back the emotional layers, you will find that this decline has obvious characteristics of precise strikes.
It is not a deterioration of the fundamentals, nor is it an issue with the project, but purely market behavior. This decline has only one purpose: to clear the market.
From a technical perspective, SOL has formed strong support around $125, with each dip being quickly pulled back up. Notably, even in the most pessimistic market sentiment, SOL has not experienced sustained capital outflows.
On the contrary, on December 3, the net inflow of funds reached $29.6 million in a single day, which is an important turning signal.
This precise decline is essentially aimed at clearing out high-leverage speculators and uncertain holders in the market. Why do the main forces do this? Because only by clearing out these "fence-sitters" can the subsequent rise be smooth and easy.
2 On-chain Evidence: Traces of Large Funds Quietly Positioning
The true market trends are often hidden in on-chain data. The recent on-chain data tells us a story that is completely different from the surface phenomena.
In the past 72 hours, despite weak price performance, large addresses are increasing their holdings against the trend. A noticeable example is on November 19, when a giant whale wallet withdrew a total of 100,791 SOL from major exchanges, worth about $14 million.
This is not an isolated event, but part of an overall trend.
The number of open futures contracts increased by 8.95% to $7.37 billion, while the number of open options contracts grew by over 150%. What do these numbers mean? They mean that large funds are quietly building positions amid market panic, rather than exiting.
A more critical indicator is that the proportion of long-term holders of SOL has recently increased rather than decreased. Floating chips have been cleaned up, and steadfast chips are more concentrated. This change in holding structure lays a solid foundation for the main rising wave.
3 Technical Formation: The Calm Before the Storm
From a technical analysis perspective, SOL is currently in a typical "convergence-breakout" pattern. This pattern usually appears before significant volatility, and according to current indications, the probability of an upward breakout is continuously increasing.
The key resistance level is around $155. Once effectively broken, it is likely to open up space towards $180 and even $214. The support below is concentrated in the $135-125 range, which is a multi-layered defense structure.
Currently, SOL's short-term moving average system is starting to curve upwards, which is a positive signal. The RSI indicator is around 48, in a neutral zone, meaning that if momentum strengthens, there is still ample room for upward movement.
The construction of this technical formation requires time and patience. The main forces are using sideways consolidation to exhaust the remaining selling pressure in the market while accumulating sufficient momentum. Once ready, the breakout will be swift and fierce.
4 Catalysts: Waiting for the Ignition Signal
With the end of the wash and the market stabilizing, only one last element is missing: the ignition signal. This signal may come from multiple dimensions.
The most direct catalyst is the progress of ETFs. The Grayscale Solana Trust ETF has been approved by the SEC, which will open the door for institutional funds into Solana. Franklin Templeton also plans to include SOL in its cryptocurrency index ETF, further strengthening institutional recognition of SOL.
Ecological development is also an important driving force. The market value of Solana's stablecoin has exceeded $5 billion, setting a new high for 2024. The total locked value (TVL) has reached $55 billion, also setting an annual high. These fundamental factors provide solid support for the price.
The macro environment should not be overlooked either. With the trend of cryptocurrency-friendly policies taking shape, the overall environment of the industry is improving. SOL, as a representative of high-performance public chains, will be one of the major beneficiaries.
Looking back at history, before each significant surge, the market experiences a thorough cleansing. The current SOL has completed the first wave of emotional chasing and high volatility and is entering a phase of strong control, deep washing, and acceleration of the main rising wave.
Those who were washed out during the plunge may have missed the best opportunity to build positions. As the main forces finish washing and the ignition signal approaches, SOL's second wave of the main rising wave is about to start, with the initial target looking at $185, then $210, and finally challenging the $250 main area.
The market always rewards those who understand the intentions of the main forces and dare to layout inversely. This time, how will you choose? Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and cryptocurrency knowledge, precise points, and become your navigation in the crypto world. Learning is your greatest wealth!
