Here is an additional basis that I believe indicates we are currently in the early stage of a bear market. If your viewpoint aligns with mine, it can be taken as a reference; if our opinions differ, please ignore my perspective:

Through retrospect, from a God’s-eye view, we can see that the distribution period of the last bull market was from February 2021 to November 2021, lasting about 280 days;

The specific process began in February 2021 when it first approached 60,000, then consolidated at a high for 3 months, followed by the super news on May 19 that caused the price to drop to 28,000. Later, there was news about Tesla purchasing Bitcoin, which led to a rebound back to the previous high and slightly above it. The entire process of this rise took 3 months, and then it consolidated at a high for one and a half months before entering the bear market after November, lasting a total of more than 9 months;

The distribution period of the current bull market can temporarily be understood as from December 2024 to October 2025, lasting about 300 days. We are currently witnessing this unfold, and without a God’s-eye view, we can only hypothesize;

The specific process is that in December 2024, it first approached 100,000, then consolidated at a high for more than 2 months. Following that, there was news about a self-directed trade war between China and the U.S. by Trump, causing the price to drop back to 75,000. Afterward, as the trade war eased, the price rebounded to near the previous high and broke through to 126,000. The entire process of this rise also took 3 months, but the difference is that it consolidated at a high for 3 months during the second phase, ultimately entering a downward trend in October, lasting a total of 11 months;

Currently, it seems that the distribution cycle of the last bull market above 55,000 and the distribution cycle of this bull market above 100,000 are extremely similar. The behavior of the main force in the short term may be quite biased, but in terms of the larger cycle, the actions of the main force can be traced.