$ETH Just now! U.S. employment data has collapsed: interest rate cut trades are fully revived, is there a chance for BTC to hit previous highs?
The U.S. non-farm payroll data released early this morning has poured cold water on the market—only 128,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.2%, both weaker than expected.
The market exploded instantly: expectations for interest rate cuts soared to over 80% probability for March next year, U.S. stock futures fell and then rose, and $BTC quickly returned to the $68,000 level after a spike.
The data behind this is not simple:
1. Cracks in the labor market have emerged—weakness in the service sector + contraction in manufacturing, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to be "tough";
2. Interest rate cut trades are fully revived—U.S. Treasury yields plummeted, the U.S. dollar index fell below 104, and liquidity expectations are being reassessed;
3. Hidden logic in the cryptocurrency circle: expectations for interest rate cuts → weakening dollar → institutions hedging inflation demand → strengthening of the capital attraction effect of crypto assets.
Especially recently, BlackRock's spot ETF has seen a net inflow for 17 consecutive days, and the increase in on-chain whale addresses has reached a new high for October; smart money has already quietly positioned itself.
Key deductions:
- In the short term, if U.S. stocks surge due to expectations for interest rate cuts, it may divert funds, but in the medium term, the easing of U.S. dollar liquidity is the "rocket fuel" for the cryptocurrency circle.
- Beware of spike market conditions: the maximum pain point for December options is at $65,000; data volatility can be amplified, but once a trend is formed, a pullback is an opportunity.
Deep insights:
The current market has shifted from "whether to cut interest rates" to "how long to cut interest rates". Once the Federal Reserve loosens its stance, the narrative of altcoin season may explode earlier.
Remember: before the liquidity turning point, position size is more important than timing.
What do you think?
