Your ATH Price Target Is Mathematically Impossible

The common retail panic during a token unlock misses the main point. Unlocks rarely kill a solid project outright. What they do is far more insidious: they inflate the circulating supply, making a return to the old All-Time High price a mathematical impossibility without a massive, disproportionate increase in demand.

Your market cap may look healthy, but remember that the Market Cap ($MC) includes all the newly circulating tokens. Price does not. Every large unlock pushes the "new ATH" goalpost further away.

If you are waiting for $BTC to retrace its 2021 top, the supply dynamics are relatively predictable. If you are waiting for an altcoin with a high Fully Diluted Valuation ($FDV) and aggressive vesting schedules, you need to understand the supply wall ahead.

Smart money focuses obsessively on the ratio of FDV to MC, the team and investor cliffs, and the pace of future issuance. Narratives drive the initial pump, but supply dynamics determine the realistic ceiling.

Projects employing sophisticated measures, like $TAO halving mechanisms or significant buybacks, are attempting to nullify this supply surge. But the long-term winners are projects with controlled, low-emission pressure and verifiable demand. Everything else needs 3x to 5x the fundamental effort just to reach parity with its former glory.

This is not financial advice.

#Tokenomics #SupplyShock #CryptoAnalysis #FDV

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