# The day the Fear Index dropped to 9, I actually went long
Fear Index at 9.
The last time I saw this number was the week after the FTX blowup in November 2022. At that time, BTC dipped just above 15k, and everyone was screaming “it’s going to zero, it’s going to zero.”
I have a buddy who liquidated everything at 16k. He sold all the BTC he had hoarded for three years, swearing he’d never touch crypto again.
He’s still watching the charts.
Not trading—just checking the charts daily. If it pumps, he’s annoyed; if it dumps, he’s relieved; if it goes sideways, he’s anxious. “If I hadn’t sold back then...” he must have said that to me fifty times. It’s a regular topic whenever we drink.
Honestly, in the crypto world, losing money isn’t the worst part. The worst part is thinking, “I could have avoided this loss.”
So today, with BTC hitting 61k, I chose to go long.
Not blindly, though. Position management is a cliché, but few actually execute it. My rules are simple and straightforward:
1. Total position never exceeds 50% of investable assets. 2. Each time I add to my position, it’s no more than 10% of the total position. 3. No more than 25% of total position in the same asset.
And one crucial rule: never touch contracts.
Back in 2021, I thought I was clever, “Isn’t 5x leverage conservative?” What happened? During that waterfall at 69,200, 5x leverage got wrecked too. I lost nearly 200k overnight. Money is one thing, but the self-loathing of thinking “how could I make such a mistake” kept me awake for three days straight.
Since then, I’ve avoided leverage like the plague. If spot drops 50%, you can still play dead; with contracts, a 10% drop and you’re out cold.
Now back to the present: Fear Index at 9. Statistically, whenever the Fear Index has been below 15 in the past five years, the average return six months later is over 80%. History doesn’t guarantee the future, but with those odds, I think it’s time to place a bet.
In short: now isn’t the time to liquidate, but it’s not an all-in moment either. Control your position, accumulate slowly, and leave some dry powder.
Buy a bit when it’s panic time, sell a bit when it’s euphoric. That statement sounds simple, almost like a cliché, but less than 1% actually do it.
What’s your mindset right now? Let’s chat in the comments.
#交易策略 #加密货币 #BTC #心态 #PositionManagement
Fear Index at 9.
The last time I saw this number was the week after the FTX blowup in November 2022. At that time, BTC dipped just above 15k, and everyone was screaming “it’s going to zero, it’s going to zero.”
I have a buddy who liquidated everything at 16k. He sold all the BTC he had hoarded for three years, swearing he’d never touch crypto again.
He’s still watching the charts.
Not trading—just checking the charts daily. If it pumps, he’s annoyed; if it dumps, he’s relieved; if it goes sideways, he’s anxious. “If I hadn’t sold back then...” he must have said that to me fifty times. It’s a regular topic whenever we drink.
Honestly, in the crypto world, losing money isn’t the worst part. The worst part is thinking, “I could have avoided this loss.”
So today, with BTC hitting 61k, I chose to go long.
Not blindly, though. Position management is a cliché, but few actually execute it. My rules are simple and straightforward:
1. Total position never exceeds 50% of investable assets. 2. Each time I add to my position, it’s no more than 10% of the total position. 3. No more than 25% of total position in the same asset.
And one crucial rule: never touch contracts.
Back in 2021, I thought I was clever, “Isn’t 5x leverage conservative?” What happened? During that waterfall at 69,200, 5x leverage got wrecked too. I lost nearly 200k overnight. Money is one thing, but the self-loathing of thinking “how could I make such a mistake” kept me awake for three days straight.
Since then, I’ve avoided leverage like the plague. If spot drops 50%, you can still play dead; with contracts, a 10% drop and you’re out cold.
Now back to the present: Fear Index at 9. Statistically, whenever the Fear Index has been below 15 in the past five years, the average return six months later is over 80%. History doesn’t guarantee the future, but with those odds, I think it’s time to place a bet.
In short: now isn’t the time to liquidate, but it’s not an all-in moment either. Control your position, accumulate slowly, and leave some dry powder.
Buy a bit when it’s panic time, sell a bit when it’s euphoric. That statement sounds simple, almost like a cliché, but less than 1% actually do it.
What’s your mindset right now? Let’s chat in the comments.
#交易策略 #加密货币 #BTC #心态 #PositionManagement