# BTC broke below 61k, fear index at 9, I can smell 2018 all over again
BTC is currently at 60960, down over 2 points in the last 24 hours. The fear and greed index is sitting at 9—9, guys, what does that even mean? It hasn't been this fearful since the FTX collapse in 2022.
ETFs have seen net outflows for the fourth straight day, with 240 million running away today alone. BlackRock's IBIT pulled out 89.4 million, Fidelity's FBTC withdrew 54.2 million, and Grayscale's GBTC took out 38.7 million. Institutions are exiting, retail investors are getting wrecked, and leveraged positions are being stomped out—4.1 billion in long positions got liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Honestly, I'm way too familiar with this scenario.
Back in 2018, I was fully loaded near the peak, and it was the same rhythm—drop, bounce back a little, drop again, bounce again. Each bounce had me thinking, "Is this the bottom?" only to get wrecked again. At my worst, my account shrank by 80%, and every morning I had to mentally prepare myself when I opened the app. That feeling still makes my heart race when I think back on it.
But looking back, the end of 2018 was the best buying opportunity in the last five years. Not just one of the best, but the best.
I’m not saying we’ve definitely hit the bottom now. Below 61000, there’s still 58000, and below that, 54000—on-chain data shows the realized price is around these levels, which is a strong support. But if you decide to cut losses now, you’re making the same mistake as those who chased the highs at 120k last year—totally driven by emotion.
A few thoughts:
The ETF outflows are indeed scary, but ETF funds are essentially trend chasers; they are lagging indicators, not leading ones. By the time ETFs start flowing back in, BTC will likely have bounced back by over 10%. Don’t expect the ETF to give you the bottom signal.
The perpetual contract funding rate is at -0.012, with shorts dominating. The more people short, the more conditions are building for a short squeeze. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment often leads to rapid and fierce bounces.
BTC is below the 50-day moving average (67800) and the 200-day moving average (72400), with RSI at 32. Technically, it’s a mess. But extreme fear + oversold conditions + negative funding rates, when combined, have historically shown a much higher probability of a bounce rather than a further crash.
What am I doing? I’m holding my spot positions steady and placing some buy orders below 61000 in batches. Not going all in, just slowly accumulating. If I’m wrong, it’s not catastrophic; if I’m right, I could make a big profit.
Are you panicking to the point of wanting to clear out, or have you already reached a Zen state and are just chilling?
#BTC #比特币 #加密货币 #行情分析 #ETF
BTC is currently at 60960, down over 2 points in the last 24 hours. The fear and greed index is sitting at 9—9, guys, what does that even mean? It hasn't been this fearful since the FTX collapse in 2022.
ETFs have seen net outflows for the fourth straight day, with 240 million running away today alone. BlackRock's IBIT pulled out 89.4 million, Fidelity's FBTC withdrew 54.2 million, and Grayscale's GBTC took out 38.7 million. Institutions are exiting, retail investors are getting wrecked, and leveraged positions are being stomped out—4.1 billion in long positions got liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Honestly, I'm way too familiar with this scenario.
Back in 2018, I was fully loaded near the peak, and it was the same rhythm—drop, bounce back a little, drop again, bounce again. Each bounce had me thinking, "Is this the bottom?" only to get wrecked again. At my worst, my account shrank by 80%, and every morning I had to mentally prepare myself when I opened the app. That feeling still makes my heart race when I think back on it.
But looking back, the end of 2018 was the best buying opportunity in the last five years. Not just one of the best, but the best.
I’m not saying we’ve definitely hit the bottom now. Below 61000, there’s still 58000, and below that, 54000—on-chain data shows the realized price is around these levels, which is a strong support. But if you decide to cut losses now, you’re making the same mistake as those who chased the highs at 120k last year—totally driven by emotion.
A few thoughts:
The ETF outflows are indeed scary, but ETF funds are essentially trend chasers; they are lagging indicators, not leading ones. By the time ETFs start flowing back in, BTC will likely have bounced back by over 10%. Don’t expect the ETF to give you the bottom signal.
The perpetual contract funding rate is at -0.012, with shorts dominating. The more people short, the more conditions are building for a short squeeze. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment often leads to rapid and fierce bounces.
BTC is below the 50-day moving average (67800) and the 200-day moving average (72400), with RSI at 32. Technically, it’s a mess. But extreme fear + oversold conditions + negative funding rates, when combined, have historically shown a much higher probability of a bounce rather than a further crash.
What am I doing? I’m holding my spot positions steady and placing some buy orders below 61000 in batches. Not going all in, just slowly accumulating. If I’m wrong, it’s not catastrophic; if I’m right, I could make a big profit.
Are you panicking to the point of wanting to clear out, or have you already reached a Zen state and are just chilling?
#BTC #比特币 #加密货币 #行情分析 #ETF