I do not agree with the view that market cycles are only four years long. I believe this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, and may last until 2026.
Edited & Compiled: Shen
Guest: Murad
Podcast Source: MustStopMurad
Original Title: 116 Reasons why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER
Broadcast Date: November 27, 2025
Key Points Summary
Do you remember Murad, the king of calls from the last cycle? The one who proposed the Meme Super Cycle theory.
Now he is back again.
In this podcast, Murad shared 116 bullish reasons, data analysis, and on-chain signals, all indicating that the cryptocurrency market's bull market may continue until 2026.
Murad believes that this market cycle may break the past pattern of occurring every four years and last longer.
Wonderful insights summary
Bitcoin may experience parabolic growth in the future, reaching highs of $150,000 to $200,000.
ETF holders have very strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bull market has not ended and will continue until 2026.
The stablecoin market is in a super cycle.
Most of the recent selling has come from traders and short-term holders.
I disagree with the view that the market cycle is only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years and could last until 2026.
The liquidation volume on the upside (short direction) is significantly greater than on the downside (long direction), with more short positions than long positions.
None of the 30 signals indicating that the traditional Bitcoin cycle has reached its top have been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached the top area.
The market trend in 2025, including current price fluctuations, may just be a range-bound stage, laying the foundation for the next rise.
The maximum pain prices for Bitcoin options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, respectively, far above the current market price.
Bitcoin prices are bottoming out near the ETF cost basis range (approximately $79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with the realized price of the ETF.
Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered the true market average price for Bitcoin. Multiple price indicators overlap in the range of $79,000 to $83,000, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This kind of price overlap is often seen as a support area.
If we further analyze Bitcoin's realized price distribution, we can find that the range of $83,000 to $85,000 is also a critical area for support and resistance conversion.
Podcast content
Analysis of the recent reasons for BTC's sharp decline
The first question to answer is: why did Bitcoin (BTC) crash from $125,000 to $80,000?
First, some investors who believe in the four-year cycle theory have engaged in significant selling, exacerbating downward pressure on the market. At the same time, the U.S. government's prolonged shutdown exceeded market expectations, further intensifying macroeconomic uncertainty. Due to the government shutdown, the repurchase market has seen financing pressure, and the slight decline in the stock market has also negatively impacted BTC prices.
Additionally, some smaller digital reserve companies and early Bitcoin holders have also engaged in selling due to market contagion effects. To a lesser extent, some so-called BTC whales expressed dissatisfaction with the latest BTC core updates and engaged in 'protest selling'. These factors combined led to the atypical rapid decline in Bitcoin prices over the past six weeks, from $125,000 to $80,000.
Nevertheless, I will prove with 116 reasons and charts that the Bitcoin bull market has not yet ended and is expected to continue until 2026.
116 reasons supporting the continuation of the BTC bull market until 2026
Technical analysis and price structure (TA)
The recent 36% drop we have seen is not something we have never encountered. If you look at all the retracements in this cycle, this is the fastest, most urgent, and largest one. However, we have seen a 32% retracement in early 2025 and a 33% retracement in mid-2024. These retracements are roughly equivalent to the current 36% drop we are seeing. Therefore, relative to what has happened so far in this cycle, this is not an unusual occurrence.
The 3-day line has formed a bullish hammer, which is typically a reversal pattern. We need to wait and see if we can establish a bottom here in the next two to three weeks, but this specific 3-day candlestick pattern is bullish.
We are still in a pattern of continuously higher lows. From the perspective of higher time frames, assuming this low of 80,005 is a local low, BTC is technically still creating higher lows.
BTC has just tested a two-week demand zone, and we are essentially at a support level.
On the monthly time frame, we are in a long-term ascending parallel channel. This channel began in 2023, and we are still at a diagonal support level, which is essentially a bullish structure. This is a slow and steady bull market cycle, but this structure has not yet been broken.
On a longer time frame, there is also an ascending parallel channel on a logarithmic scale, with diagonal support dating back to 2013. The structure is technically still intact, and we have just tested its lower edge.
There is also another diagonal line that has acted as a resistance level in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke through it at the end of 2024 and tested it as support in early 2025, and now we are testing it again as support, which may just be another confirmation of resistance turning into support.
Momentum and oversold indicators
The weekly RSI has never been this low since the FDX collapse. The only previous times the weekly RSI was at such low levels were during the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID bottom, and the mid-2022 3AC/Luna crash. We are currently roughly at the level seen during the COVID period, but this is essentially the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. If you match these weekly RSI levels with charts, you will find that they typically correlate with bottoms at the end of bear markets or sharp declines like the COVID crash.
The daily RSI is at its lowest point in two and a half years, the last time it was at this level was in the summer of 2023. Statistical data shows that when the BTC daily RSI drops below 21, future expected returns look favorable.
Another indicator is the distance to the power law, which is currently at a 'buy zone' level.
If you connect the bottoms of all retracements in this cycle, you will find that this is a perfect diagonal support. Someone had predicted a bottom at around 84,000 when it was at 95,000, and we eventually stopped falling around 80,500.
BTC's MACD on the daily, two-day, and three-day charts is at historical lows.
In the past three instances when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, it was a good buying opportunity within this cycle. Historically, more than 60% of the time, this situation leads to positive returns.
Interestingly, if you look at all previous instances where Bitcoin's trading price was more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, the only times this occurred were during the bear market bottom in November 2018 and the COVID crash in March 2020.
If we look at situations four standard deviations low, this had only occurred once during the COVID crash. We touched similar levels on November 21, and the probability of this occurring is less than 1%, indicating an extremely unusual and sharp decline, suggesting that the market is in a state of extreme fear.
The LeaC indicator has issued its first buy signal on the three-day chart since the FTX collapse, which typically only occurs during bear markets or at bottoms.
The total cryptocurrency market cap is currently at the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
The total cryptocurrency market cap is currently at both horizontal and diagonal support levels.
On-chain analysis and signs of capitulation
Most of the recent selling has not primarily come from long-term holders and/or miners, but rather from traders and short-term holders.
The percentage of short-term holders in profit is at its lowest level in five years, never having been this low since 2019.
The supply of short-term holders is at a historical low.
Short-term holders have realized profit to loss ratio, which is also at the lowest level in five years, indicating that the market is experiencing a complete capitulation, especially from the perspective of short-term holders and traders.
The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of short-term holders is beginning to enter the buy signal zone.
Realized losses are at their highest since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, which is another signal of market capitulation.
The Puell multiple is at a discount level (the current ratio of miner revenue to the average over the past 365 days), which is typically associated with medium-term bottoms.
Recent on-chain data shows that we have experienced the largest outflow of funds from exchanges in history. Looking back at the past four similar events, such fund flows typically mark the start of a bull market or the end of a bear market. In the following weeks or even months, the market often sees significant bullish trends.
Additionally, the on-chain 'Realized Net Profit and Loss' indicator has dropped to its lowest level since the FDX collapse, suggesting that market sentiment may have bottomed out, creating conditions for a potential rebound.
The SOPR is preparing for an accumulation breakout. So far, it has not reached levels associated with a global top during this cycle.
The SOPR remains within the structure of a bull market cycle. Since 2023, this indicator has never entered the typical bear market zone, consistently rebounding around the level of 1.
Stablecoins and derivatives market
The stablecoin market is in a super cycle, and its scale has been continuously expanding over the past three years. This trend is a bullish signal for the market, as the increase in stablecoins means more funds are available for investors to buy Bitcoin and ETH on dips.
The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) is currently at its largest gap since 2022, further demonstrating the market's potential buying power.
The stablecoin SSR oscillation indicator has hit its lowest level since 2017.
Observing Bitcoin's positions, Bitfinex BTCUSD long positions are currently in the buying range, consistent with the states observed during several medium-term bottoms in this cycle. Whales on Bitfinex are often viewed as 'smart money', and historical data shows they tend to accurately predict market trends.
The market dominance of stablecoins is currently at a level that coincides with Bitcoin's bottom in this cycle. The market shares of USDT and USDC have surged, typically reflecting investors' fear. Historical data shows that when the dominance of USDT and USDC reaches this level, the market is usually at a local medium-term bottom.
In recent weeks, the market has experienced the largest long liquidation since the FTX collapse. This phenomenon is typically seen as a 'capitulation signal', indicating that leveraged positions in the market have been significantly cleaned out.
In terms of liquidation distribution, the amount of liquidations on the upside (short direction) is significantly greater than on the downside (long direction).
According to CoinGlass data, the current number of short positions in the market exceeds that of long positions.
The long/short indicator reading is 0.93, indicating that market sentiment is in a state of heightened panic.
Whale dynamics and institutional behavior
Rumors suggest that an 'OG' whale who sold $1.2 billion in BTC over the past few weeks has finally sold out.
Recent rumors suggest that Tether sent $1 billion directly from the treasury to a Bitfinex address, possibly for purchasing BTC.
Some funds suffered significant losses on October 10. If they are forced to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum now, such selling is more likely to be forced rather than voluntary.
The Bgeometrics demand index is in the buy zone (the Bgeometrics demand index is an analytical tool mainly used to measure the demand level for Bitcoin), the last time a similar situation occurred was in September 2024 when the market was also at a medium-term bottom.
Additionally, on-chain indicators Dynamic NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and NVTS (NVT Signal) currently show severe oversold conditions, which historically are usually associated with medium-term bottoms.
The Bitcoin sentiment indicator, 'Fear and Greed Index', has currently reached a level of 10/100, the lowest in this cycle, indicating that the market is in a state of extreme fear.
Sentiment on social media is also showing extreme pessimism, with many KOLs sharing a large number of very pessimistic Bitcoin price charts on CT (CryptoTwitter).
There are also many bearish market videos on YouTube.
A large number of bearish tweets, articles, and blog posts are emerging.
Observing traditional cycle top signals for Bitcoin, currently none of the 30 signals have been triggered, indicating that the market has not yet reached the top area.
Price patterns and ETF flows
Last week, the gap of CME Bitcoin futures at $91,000 has been successfully filled.
The gap of CME Ethereum futures at $2,800 has also been filled.
From a technical analysis perspective, there is a pattern known as 'Domed House and Three Peaks', which is typically seen as a corrective pattern, often accompanied by new bullish waves thereafter.
There is also a viewpoint that the market trend in 2025, including current price fluctuations, may just be a range-bound stage that lays the foundation for the next rise. Another pattern worth noting is 'Four Bases and a Parabola', and the current market might be in the middle of the fourth base stage. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could experience parabolic growth in the future, reaching highs of $150,000 to $200,000.
The Bitcoin to stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance is currently at its historical lowest level, which is seen as a strong bullish signal.
Looking back at historical data, Bitcoin bottomed within four days after the U.S. government shutdown ended in 2019. This year, the government shutdown ended in mid-November, and if $80,500 on November 21 was the bottom, this bottoming timeframe is very similar to the case of reopening the government on the 9th day.
In the Bitcoin options market, the buying volume of put options dominates.
At the same time, the Put Skew indicator continues to rise, reflecting extreme fear in the market. The implied volatility of put options (Put IV) is significantly higher than that of call options (Call IV).
It is noteworthy that this week is also a record-breaking week for put option trading volume of IBIT (the world's largest Bitcoin ETF).
The maximum pain prices for Bitcoin options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, respectively, far above the current market price.
The maximum pain price for ETH options is $4,300 in June next year.
November 21 was the historical highest trading volume day for IBIT, further corroborating the view of market capitulation. Historical data shows that market capitulation typically comes with extremely high trading volume, which is a process of rebalancing the forces between buyers and sellers.
In fact, not only did IBIT's trading volume reach a historical peak, if we account for the total trading volume of all BTC ETFs, this day is also the highest in history.
Bitcoin prices are bottoming out near the ETF cost basis range (approximately $79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with the realized price of the ETF.
Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered the true market average price for Bitcoin. Multiple price indicators overlap in the range of $79,000 to $83,000, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This kind of price overlap is often seen as a support area.
If we further analyze Bitcoin's realized price distribution, we can find that the range of $83,000 to $85,000 is also a critical area for support and resistance conversion. Therefore, it is likely that Bitcoin will find a medium-term bottom in this price range.
November 21 was also the historical highest point for Hyperliquid BTC perpetual contract trading volume. This phenomenon echoes the surge in ETF trading volume, indicating that the market may have gone through a mid-term capitulation phase. Capitulation typically accompanies the exhaustion of selling pressure, and it may also signal the first rebound in market demand.
Currently, 98% of the assets under management (AUM) in ETFs are held by diamond hands, and these funds are mainly designed for long-term holding rather than short-term trading or speculation. Even with the recent 36% drop, 98% of ETF AUM remains unsold, indicating that ETF holders have very strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.
The proportion of Bitcoin supply held by ETFs is continuously rising. From data over the past two years, this proportion has increased from 3% to 7.1%, and may further climb to 15%, 20%, or even 25%. This trend indicates that the Bitcoin market is experiencing what is known as an 'IPO moment'. At this stage, early large holders (OGs) are gradually exiting, while passive inflows from ETFs continue to drive market accumulation. The money supply owned by the fiat currency system far exceeds the Bitcoin held by OGs. By definition, Bitcoin supply is limited, while the funds from fiat and ETF systems available for purchasing Bitcoin are almost limitless.
The situation with Ethereum (ETH) is similar. Over the past few years, the proportion of ETH held by ETFs has also been steadily increasing, regardless of market price fluctuations, reflecting institutional investors' long-term optimism for crypto assets.
Market indicators analysis
On November 21, the trading volumes of Binance and Coinbase even surpassed the levels seen on October 10, which was already an extremely active trading day. This indicates that the market may have gone through a complete capitulation phase.
On Binance and Coinbase, the order book for Bitcoin has shown bullish tendencies for the first time in weeks, at least in the short term, similar market conditions also appeared when Bitcoin bottomed in April 2025.
From the funding rate perspective, we have seen negative values for the first time in weeks, indicating that market sentiment is still filled with fear. Many investors have chosen to short, believing that prices will fall further.
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has been at a discount on Coinbase, which has put continuous pressure on prices. However, since November 21, market sentiment has begun to ease, and prices have gradually returned to normalization. Currently, the discount on Coinbase seems to have bottomed out and is recovering to neutral levels. This could be another signal indicating that Bitcoin prices are approaching a medium-term bottom.
Additionally, the RSI indicator of Bitcoin relative to gold has dropped to historical lows in bear markets. Historical data shows that similar situations between Bitcoin and gold occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the global market bottom in 2018, and during the collapses of 3AC, Luna, and FTX. If you believe that the gap between Bitcoin and gold will eventually be filled, then the current market may provide support for bullishness.
From the open interest (OI) data, we have just experienced the largest washout of this cycle, with OI dropping from $37 billion to $29 billion, the fastest adjustment since the FTX collapse.
From the open interest (OI) of altcoins, October 10 was a massive washout in the altcoin market, and the bubbles of most assets have been burst.
The mNav of DAT has fallen back below 1 or slightly above 1. I see this as a bullish signal because parts of the market that were previously seen as bubbles have been cleaned out.
Some extremely overvalued assets, such as the mNav of MSTR, have now fallen back to levels seen during the FTX collapse. Historically, these levels are often associated with medium-term bottoms in the market.
Similarly, the mNav of Metaplanet, which once reached 23, has now dropped to 0.95. This adjustment indicates that the market is returning to rationality. Nonetheless, Meta Planet is still borrowing funds through its Bitcoin position to buy more Bitcoin, showing that there is still some buying demand in the market.
Similarly, Ethereum's mNav has also undergone a significant downward adjustment, further proving that the market bubble has dissipated. Currently, an mNav below 1 cannot be used as a reason for a bearish market. While some believe this might prompt certain DATs to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum to repurchase stocks, from a game theory perspective, those DATs wishing to gain a leading position in the industry know that short-term trading behavior can harm their long-term reputation. They are more inclined to win market recognition through long-term holding.
The Bitcoin lending industry is still in its early stages, but it is gradually developing under the push of MSTR. I believe this trend will eventually show exponential growth, allowing MSTR to accumulate Bitcoin in a more sustainable manner.
The social risk indicator for Bitcoin is at zero, indicating that retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale. While some may think this is due to the lack of funds among retail investors, I believe this is precisely why Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have not yet experienced parabolic rises. Historically, this phenomenon is usually triggered by a large influx of retail investors into the market, and we have not seen this in this cycle, indicating that the current cycle is primarily driven by DATs and institutions. I believe retail investors will return to the market in larger numbers in the future, so it is wise to hold now.
Macroeconomic and political factors
From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve has begun to cut interest rates, although the current inflation rate is still above the target level of 2%. We need to recognize that the low volatility and slow dynamics of this cycle are largely due to the current macroeconomic environment being extremely tight, which is one of the most challenging macro backgrounds in Bitcoin's history and a major reason for the market's difficult performance. At the beginning of this cycle, the interest rate was 5.5%, and it still remains above 4%, showing that the current macroeconomic conditions are still relatively tight. In previous cryptocurrency cycles, interest rates typically ranged between 0% and 2.5%, with relatively loose conditions. Even in such a tight environment, Bitcoin rising from $15,000 to $125,000 is already a significant achievement.
The probability of a rate cut in December has risen sharply from 30% last week to 81%, which is generally good news for risk assets including Bitcoin.
The daily trading volume of the S&P 500 index reached its highest level since April last week. Historical data shows that similar surges in trading volume are usually associated with local or medium-term market bottoms. The reason for this attention is that if Bitcoin prices are to rise further, ideally, the stock market needs to maintain its upward momentum.
Likewise, the daily trading volume of the Nasdaq 100 index also reached its highest level since April. Multiple meetings on November 21 discussed the potential of this point in time as a potential market mid-term bottom, and such surges in trading volume are also associated with market bottoms.
The weekly trading volume of the S&P 500 index is the third highest since 2022.
The weekly trading volume of the Nasdaq 100 index is also the third highest since 2022.
The Nasdaq 100 index found support at the 100-day moving average and showed a bullish crossover signal with the MACD indicator.
The trading volume of put options for the S&P 500 has reached its second highest level in history. According to historical data, this situation will lead to positive price performance 100% of the time one month later.
Last week, the S&P 500 index gapped up more than 1%, but closed negative on the same day. Historical data shows that this situation leads to price increases 86% of the time three weeks to one month later.
The market is currently also in a unique environment. Over the past four weeks, the VIX index has been continuously rising, but the S&P 500 index remains within 5% of its historical highs. Historical data shows that when this situation occurs, the probability of price increases six months later is 80%, and a year later it rises to as high as 93%.
The RSI indicator for SPX has fallen below 35 for the first time in seven months. Historical data shows that in similar situations, the probability of price increases three months later is 93%, six months later is 85%, and one year later is 78%.
When the SPX first drops below the 50-day moving average, historical records show that the probability of price increases three months, six months, and nine months later is 71%.
For the Nasdaq, when the McClellan Oscillator drops below 62 (the McClellan Oscillator is a technical indicator used to analyze market breadth by calculating the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks and smoothing this difference to reflect the overall market momentum), historical data shows that in most cases, prices will increase one week to one month later.
The AAI bull-bear indicator is currently below -12, and historical data shows that the last three times this has occurred, prices increased 100% two months, three months, six months, nine months, and one year later.
On November 21, the trading volume of SPXU (3x short S&P 500 ETF) exceeded $1 billion. Historical data shows that each time this occurs, market prices increase one month later.
Last week, the proportion of oversold stocks saw a significant increase, which is typically associated with local or medium-term market bottoms.
The call/put options ratio for the S&P 500 has exceeded 0.7 for two consecutive days. Historical data shows that in this case, market prices increase 100% two months later.
The price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the growth of the global M2 money supply. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid rises in 2017 and 2021 were accompanied by parabolic growth in M2. In this cycle, Bitcoin's slow rise aligns with moderate trends in M2 growth. If M2 growth accelerates in the future, Bitcoin prices may usher in a new wave of rapid increases. From a broader historical perspective, the so-called 'market bubble' often lasts longer than people expect. If we compare the current market with the prosperity of the 1920s, the gold rush of the late 1970s, the Japanese asset price bubble, and the internet bubble, while overlaying the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index since October 2022, it can be seen that there is still considerable room for the market to rise.
The S&P 500 index has never peaked globally when the ISM manufacturing index is below 50. The current ISM index is about 48, leading many to speculate that the business cycle may enter an expansion phase, further driving up prices for stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin.
In terms of the Mega 7 indicator, the current market performance shows that resistance levels are turning into support. If we take the Mega 7 as a barometer of the market, it currently does not show any abnormal signals. In fact, since 2015, there have been multiple instances of retesting support within four months after breaking previous highs, and the current market is undergoing a similar pattern. Therefore, the market is not in an abnormal or bear market state; at least it is still maintaining a healthy operational trend.
There is a connection between the price of Bitcoin and the year-on-year growth of the global M2 money supply. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid rises in 2017 and 2021 were closely related to the parabolic growth of M2. In this cycle, Bitcoin's slow rise aligns with the stable growth of M2. If M2 growth accelerates in the future, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market may usher in a new wave of rapid rises. There are already signs that M2 growth is accumulating momentum, but to achieve parabolic price growth, accelerating M2 growth is key.
If the money supply continues to grow, Bitcoin prices may gradually catch up with this trend and rise further.
The Dollar Index (DXY) is an important factor influencing cryptocurrency prices, and it is currently at a key resistance level, which has acted as both resistance and support several times since 2015. Between 2015 and 2020, it primarily served as a resistance level; while between 2022 and 2024, it has repeatedly acted as a support level. In early 2025, the Dollar Index broke below this area and is now retesting this resistance level from below. Generally, when the Dollar Index is at a resistance level, it is an ideal time to buy risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December 2025, and this policy change is considered favorable for risk assets including Bitcoin. Although the policy will not take immediate effect, overall, quantitative easing (QE) typically helps cryptocurrency prices rise, while quantitative tightening can lead the market into a bear phase. Historical data shows that during the Federal Reserve's expansion of its balance sheet in 2013, the cryptocurrency market performed strongly; while during the balance sheet reduction in 2018, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines. The rapid expansion of the Fed's balance sheet during 2020 and 2021 coincided with the timing of the Bitcoin bull market. In 2022, the Fed began to reduce its balance sheet, during which time the stock and cryptocurrency markets entered bear phases.
Many market analysts predict that some form of quantitative easing (QE) or implicit QE may return in 2026, and the Federal Reserve may again expand its balance sheet. Although the scale of this expansion may not be as large as that after the pandemic, this policy is still considered to have a positive effect on the market. Looking back at history, the last time the Federal Reserve announced quantitative tightening, the market experienced what is known as the 'QT-QE inflection washout'. At that time, Bitcoin prices initially fell but eventually found support around $6,000 (not counting the pandemic-induced crash). With the pace of QT slowing and QE starting, Bitcoin prices subsequently experienced a surge.
There is a theory that the Federal Reserve's announcement of the end of quantitative tightening may lead to a similar 'QT-QE inflection washout'. During this period, the market may first go through a phase of volatility, but once some form of quantitative easing (QE) starts, Bitcoin prices could see strong performance again. This scenario may replay.
From a higher political and administrative perspective, the U.S. government is currently fully supporting the development of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, and stablecoins. This can be said to be one of the most supportive governments for cryptocurrencies in history, and this policy environment is expected to continue, providing long-term positive support for the cryptocurrency market.
The Trump administration aims to promote economic growth, advocating for reducing debt through economic growth and criticizing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as overly tight; overall, the Trump administration tends to pursue looser economic policies.
Additionally, the Trump administration has actively supported the development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, viewing it as a strategic national priority for the United States. For example, the U.S. has launched the Genesis mission, which is a plan aimed at further developing the AI industry, and its importance and urgency can be compared to the Manhattan Project (the development of nuclear weapons).
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has indicated in multiple interviews that there may be a relaxation of bank regulations to increase loans to key industries. This could not only prepare for future interest rate cuts, but also further increase the money supply. He emphasized the importance of relaxing bank regulations and lowering capital rules, similar claims have also been made by the comments of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) chairman.
The Trump administration is committed to lowering housing costs to release trillions of dollars in home equity into the economy and markets. This is currently one of the White House's key focus areas, aiming to turn this massive wealth into economic vitality.
The Trump family's interests are highly aligned with this policy goal. They have significant investments in the cryptocurrency space, including Trump meme coin and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects.
The Trump administration is also discussing issuing $2,000 stimulus checks to everyone, especially low- and middle-income individuals. Looking back to 2020, the $500 or $600 checks had a clear impact on asset prices. If this policy is implemented, the $2,000 stimulus checks would have a significant positive impact on asset prices, especially in the cryptocurrency market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that this could take the form of a tax refund, but regardless of the form, this would be very favorable for the market.
China is currently taking measures to end deflationary pressures that have affected its economy for years. Historically, when the Chinese economic pressure index reaches high levels, it is usually accompanied by some form of monetary easing.
Japan has announced an economic stimulus plan totaling $135 billion, which may further boost global market liquidity and asset prices.
Conclusion and risks
Despite many positive signals in the market, we also need to pay attention to potential risks. The four major risks currently facing the market include:
The Mega 7 AI bubble in the stock market may burst suddenly
Bitcoin whales may further increase selling pressure
A stronger dollar may put pressure on risk assets
The business cycle may reverse while liquidity may further deteriorate
I do not agree with the view that market cycles are only four years; I believe this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years and may last until 2026.