🏛️ Daddy (Federal Reserve) is easing

The rate cut channel opens, liquidity expectations warm up, theoretically benefiting all risk assets.

But this time the rate cut is not a 'crisis mode', but a 'preventive easing', the effect of the medicine may be mild.

🇯🇵 Eldest son (Japan) draws water

Historic turning point! Ending negative interest rates, the last cheap pool of global funds is closing.

The pressure of capital inflow from Japan increases, and global assets (including US stocks and cryptocurrency) that were previously supported by arbitrage trading (Carry Trade) face selling pressure.

⚔️ Extreme tug-of-war, who will win?

In the short term, the impact of Japan's interest rate hike is more direct and sudden, easily triggering risk aversion and cross-market fund adjustments.

The Federal Reserve's rate cut is a 'chronic drug', while Japan's interest rate hike is an 'acute needle'.

📉 How will the market move? My deduction:

1️⃣ First pullback oscillation: Japan's interest rate hike triggers arbitrage liquidation + profit-taking, the market pulls back to support, creating panic.

2️⃣ Main force covers position change: during the decline, large funds withdraw while buying, adjusting positions and changing coins, shaking off weak bulls.

3️⃣ Federal Reserve expectations support: with rate cuts approaching, the liquidity narrative continues, the possibility of a deep drop is low, and key support levels will be fiercely contested.

4️⃣ Choose a direction after oscillation: wait for the market to digest the impact of Japan's first interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve's rate cut to be officially implemented, and only then will the new trend become clear.

🛡️ Is there really 'bull support' below?

Yes, but it's not an iron bottom.

The key points are:

· BTC $58,000–$60,000 institutional cost range

· ETH $3,000–$3,200 ecosystem pledge psychological threshold

🍬 Does Japan want to eat the Federal Reserve's 'sugar'?

More like tightening your own money bag before Dad gives out candy.

Short-term will suppress market sentiment, but in the medium to long term, it cannot reverse the trend of global liquidity shift.

❄️ What to do if you're shivering?

· If your position is heavy, you can reduce some positions when rebounding to resistance levels, keeping cash for a pullback.

· If you are lightly positioned or short, place orders in batches at support levels, don't go all in at once.

· Pay attention to the $ETH ecosystem pledge rate, BTC miner positions, data is more reliable than feelings.

💎 Remember:

When macro conflicts occur, the market loves to shake out weak hands.

Maintain your mindset, don't give away your cheap chips during the oscillation.

👇 Where are you located? Let's huddle in the comments!

$ETH $BTC #FederalReserveRateCut #JapanInterestRateHike #MacroGame #OscillatingMarket