After that pile of data came out last night, to be honest, the information from September is basically no longer of reference value; it's mostly old information before the American shutdown, just take a casual look. It's worth highlighting the ADP non-farm employment data—it's simply outrageous. The previous value was revised from 42,000 to 47,000, and I thought it was relatively stable, but the latest data dropped directly to -32,000, a decline in employment rather than an increase, which reflects the current true employment situation in America.

As soon as the data was released, the market immediately caught the signal, and the probability of a rate cut in December displayed by CME skyrocketed to 89%. This is not just about poor employment; it’s so bad that it almost corners the Federal Reserve.

However, the current logic of the market is quite ruthless— the more serious the unemployment, the more assets rise. Because everyone has long been psychologically prepared for weak employment, some even consider it a bet on interest rate cuts. In other words, the Federal Reserve hasn't acted yet, and the market has already rebounded by itself.

As for the interest rate meeting in December, if a "hawkish rate cut" operation really occurs, it will definitely be accompanied by some hedging tricks. For example, Trump might replace the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, or release some labor and inflation data favorable for rate cuts in January after the meeting.

Also, regarding Japan, will there be a rate hike around December 18? As long as they don’t suddenly launch a surprise attack on the market, it should be fine. In fact, everyone has some expectations in mind, which shouldn’t lead to a sudden crash.

The real upward trend, I still see after January. By then, it's not just that the expectations for rate cuts continue; the SEC chairman will also come out and say that new exemptions will be provided to crypto companies in January, which is clearly adding fuel to the market.

Whether the trend can be formally established depends on that time. And from a technical perspective, the most critical point is that Bitcoin’s K-line must stabilize above 101000; if it can't go up, don’t talk about any trend reversal. $BTC $ETH