For those who think it's too wordy, just skip to the end.
The most brutal and core essence of the crypto market - information asymmetry.
However, in the current Bitcoin market, there is no longer a single 'absolute whale'. With Bitcoin's market cap soaring into the trillions, no single entity can whimsically control its macro bull and bear trends. Today's Bitcoin market resembles a 'dark forest' made up of multiple superpowers, all vying against and harvesting from each other.
Exchanges are definitely one of the top predators in this forest with a 'God's eye view'. We can break down the current market forces behind Bitcoin into several major factions:
1. Exchanges and market makers: Short-term harvesting machines with the 'God's eye view'.
Exchanges and their core market makers (like Wintermute, Jump Crypto, etc.) hold an absolute data advantage. They may not be able to dictate Bitcoin's long-term trend over the years, but they are definitely the 'manufacturers' of short-term volatility and extreme market swings.
The 'God's eye view' with all cards on the table: Retail investors' stop-loss orders and the concentration of long and short liquidation prices are crystal clear from the exchange's backend.
'Targeted liquidations (pinning)': When the market's long leverage is too high, exchanges or large market makers have the capacity to crash the spot market instantly or 'pull the plug' and 'maliciously pin' in the futures market. Their goal isn't to short for the long term but to breach retail liquidation lines. Once retail investors are liquidated, they'll be forced to close their positions at market price (long liquidation is equivalent to selling passively), triggering a chain reaction. Exchanges not only earn hefty liquidation fees but can also buy back bloodied chips at lower prices.
The lesson from FTX: The now-bankrupt FTX exchange and its Alameda Research is the most typical example. They not only peeked at users' hole cards but also misappropriated users' funds to play against them. In the unregulated world of crypto, exchanges exploiting their information advantage is an open secret.
2. Wall Street Giants (ETF issuers): The 'new kings' of macro trends.
Since the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved in the U.S., real macro pricing power has begun to shift to Wall Street.
BlackRock, Fidelity, and other giants have become the largest legal 'accumulation machines' in the current market. They represent the biggest traditional pensions, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds globally.
These Wall Street giants don't play the short-term 'pinning' game; they focus on asset allocation and macro cycles. They determine Bitcoin's long-term 'water level' through massive inflows and outflows of fiat currency. When Wall Street's funding engine revs up, even exchanges can't stop this rolling macro trend.
3. Stablecoin issuers (Tether): The 'Federal Reserve' of the crypto world.
This is a super whale that many people easily overlook. Tether, the issuer of USDT, controls the lifeblood of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.
Almost all trades need to go through stablecoins. Tether is like the 'chip exchange' at a casino; they not only made billions by issuing USDT (mainly by buying U.S. bonds for interest), but they also announced they would regularly use 15% of their net profits to directly purchase and hold Bitcoin.
When Tether massively issues USDT during a liquidity crunch in the market, it's often a signal that a new bull run is about to kick off. They're the true 'whales' holding the faucet.
4. The 'Sleeping Giants': The U.S. government and early OGs.
There are several undercurrents in the market that could trigger an earthquake at any moment:
The U.S. Government: Through multiple seizures (like the Silk Road case), the U.S. government holds over 200,000 Bitcoins, making it the largest single holder in the world. Every time they transfer or liquidate these seized assets, it triggers massive panic selling in the market.
Early miners and OGs: Including Satoshi's founding wallet (over 1 million BTC, untouched but like a Damocles sword hanging overhead) and early low-cost coin hoarders, these super geeks occasionally waking up and shifting assets can have a major psychological impact on the market.
Summary
If you see Bitcoin as a poker table:
Exchanges are like that dealer who can see your hole cards and occasionally pulls tricks during the shuffle. They squeeze short-term profits by earning fees and harvesting your leverage.
Wall Street and stablecoin firms are like 'super whales' sitting in VIP lounges. The huge capital they bring determines the pot limit at this table.
Companies like MicroStrategy are the 'crazy gamblers' yelling and borrowing everywhere, buying but never selling, using emotion to drive the atmosphere.
So in today's Bitcoin market, the biggest danger for retail investors doesn't come from some elusive 'puppet master', but from blindly using high leverage to gamble on short-term directions while the exchanges hold information privileges. In this game dominated by bullish whales, not using leverage, buying spot, and holding is the only way for the average person to avoid being 'harvested' from the 'God's eye view'.