I found a huge issue: it's not that the trend is wrong; it's that I can't hold on. Back in October last year, I shorted at 4400 with an order of $ETH and I have no clue how many times that would be now. The post is still up, but I couldn't hold on. A few days ago, I shorted at 2400 and exited at 2200, which was over 10x. Now, it's time to go long again, and unless something unexpected happens, I still can't hold.