Is it a choppy rebound or a second bottom? Analysis of the bull-bear divergence on the hourly chart for BTC, ETH, and SOL
Introduction Summary
- Core Conclusion: BTC, ETH, and SOL have shown short-term rebound signals on the hourly chart after significant declines, but mid-term structures remain under pressure, and the market is in a state of 'bull-bear divergence.' The sustainability and height of the rebound depend on whether trading volume can increase and if critical resistance levels can be broken.
- BTC: Price has bounced back to around $62,500, nearing the short-term resistance level of $62,942. The short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, but there's significant pressure from the mid-term moving averages, and volume is shrinking, casting doubt on the rebound's strength. There's news indicating 'extreme oversold' conditions and 'potential short-squeeze' signals, but macro selling pressure and institutional sell-offs are bearish.
- ETH: Rebounded to $1,633, also facing $1,648 resistance. Technical structure is similar to BTC, but ADX shows slightly higher trend strength. News is impacted by dual bearish influences from 'Zcash vulnerability' and 'BTC decline,' with relatively weaker performance. Support at $1,542 is critical.
- SOL: Rebounded to $65.16, nearing $66.07 resistance. Technical indicators are highly synchronized with BTC and ETH, but volatility is higher. News is impacted by bearish sentiment from 'Forward Industries selling SOL,' weakening market confidence.
Technical analysis
BTCUSDT: The rebound approaches resistance, but insufficient volume is a concern.
- Trend and structure: On the 1-hour chart, BTC price rebounded from a recent low of $60,353 and is now above MA7 ($62,145) and MA25 ($61,180), forming a short-term bullish arrangement. However, MA25 remains below MA99 ($62,747), indicating that the mid-term moving average structure is under pressure, suggesting the rebound has not yet reversed the mid-term downtrend. Prices are currently near the upper Bollinger Band ($62,722), in a strong region.
- Support and resistance: Short-term key resistance is at $62,942.40 (recent 20-candle high). If effectively broken, the next target looks to MA99 ($62,747) and the upper Bollinger Band. Support below is at $60,353.40 (recent 20-candle low); if breached, it may test the lower Bollinger Band ($59,821).
- Indicator resonance and divergence:
- Bullish signal: The MACD histogram is positive (212.75), and the DIF line is above the DEA line, showing bullish momentum remains. RSI(14) is at 64.84, in a neutral to strong area, not yet in overbought territory.
- Bearish signal: The stochastic indicator's K value (83.36) is below the D value (92.66), forming a death cross, suggesting short-term pullback pressure. The trading volume (volume ratio 0.76) is below the average of the last 20 candles, indicating a lack of capital support for the rebound, with upward momentum potentially insufficient. OBV (-516310) remains negative, showing strong outflow pressure.
- Neutral observation: ADX(14) is at 22.52, below 25, indicating the current market is more inclined towards consolidation rather than a one-sided trend. RSI(6) is at 72.15, close to overbought territory, requiring caution for a short-term pullback.
ETHUSDT: Following the rebound, but weaker characteristics are more pronounced.
- Trend and structure: ETH's 1-hour chart structure is similar to BTC's, with prices above MA7 ($1,613) and MA25 ($1,576). However, MA25 is significantly below MA99 ($1,687), indicating a more pronounced mid-term bearish arrangement. Prices are hovering near the upper Bollinger Band ($1,635), with volatility (0.97%) higher than BTC.
- Support and resistance: Short-term resistance is at $1,648.00, and if broken, it may challenge MA99. Support below is at $1,542.72, which is the starting point of the recent rebound and a key battleground for bulls and bears.
- Indicator resonance and divergence:
- Bullish signal: The MACD histogram is positive (9.61), and the DIF line is above the DEA line, indicating continued bullish momentum. RSI(14) is at 66.74, showing a neutral to strong bias.
- Bearish signal: The stochastic indicator's K value (85.55) is below the D value (90.70), forming a death cross as well, with a high risk of short-term pullback. Although ADX(27.30) is above 25, indicating some strength in the current trend, this is the strength of the rebound trend, not a reversal trend.
- Neutral observation: Trading volume (volume ratio 1.11) is close to normal, with no extreme spikes in volume, making the certainty of a rebound low. OBV (-22437180) continues to show significant outflows, indicating strong capital exit willingness.
SOLUSDT: Following rebound under high volatility
- Trend and structure: SOL's 1-hour chart is highly synchronized with BTC and ETH, with prices above MA7 ($64.68) and MA25 ($62.91), but MA25 is below MA99 ($66.98). Prices are near the upper Bollinger Band ($65.78), with volatility (1.28%) being the highest among the three.
- Support and resistance: Short-term resistance is at $66.07, and once broken, look to MA99. Support below is at $61.26.
- Indicator resonance and divergence:
- Bullish signal: The MACD histogram is positive (0.42), and the DIF line is above the DEA line. RSI(14) is at 61.92, showing a neutral to strong bias.
- Bearish signal: The stochastic indicator's K value (80.88) is below the D value (92.64), forming a death cross. ADX(23.94) is below 25, indicating insufficient strength for a rebound trend, leaning more towards consolidation. Trading volume (volume ratio 0.94) is below the average, indicating a rebound lacking volume support.
- Neutral observation: OBV (-38,015,416) continues to show outflows, indicating significant pressure on capital.
News analysis
BTCUSDT: Bullish and bearish forces intertwined, oversold signals coexist with macro pressures.
- Bullish factors:
- Extreme oversold signal: Cointelegraph reports that Bitcoin's RSI has dropped to the lowest level since the 2020 crash. Historically, similar situations (2020, February 2026) led to BTC rebounds of 50% and 30%, respectively. This provides historical backing for a technical rebound.
- Potential short squeeze risk: Another Cointelegraph report noted that as BTC's price dropped to $60,000, shorts accumulated heavily, forming about $2.6 billion in short-term leveraged positions. If the price rebounds, it could trigger short covering, leading to a 'short squeeze' and accelerating upward movement.
- Bearish factors:
- Institutional reduction: MicroStrategy's (now Strategy) sale of Bitcoin challenges the 'never sell' narrative, potentially shaking market confidence in institutional holdings.
- Macro and policy pressures: JPMorgan's attack on the CLARITY Act and regulatory uncertainties are adding extra pressure to the market. Overall market sentiment remains cautious.
ETHUSDT: Bearish dominance, weak following.
- Bearish factors:
- Zcash vulnerability and BTC drag: ETH price has plummeted to a 13-month low, primarily due to security concerns triggered by the Zcash vulnerability and the overall market panic from BTC dropping below $60,000. As the 'king of altcoins,' ETH often suffers greater losses during systemic downturns.
- Lack of independent bullish signals: Compared to BTC, ETH lacks clear bullish narratives like 'oversold rebounds' or 'short squeezes.' The news of Visa testing stablecoin settlements is neutral long-term, with limited short-term impact.
SOLUSDT: Significant bearish pressure, market confidence weakened.
- Bearish factors:
- Institutional sell-off: Forward Industries transferred $31.9 million worth of SOL to Coinbase Prime, with its Solana investment showing over 70% loss. This action directly increased market selling pressure and undermined investor confidence in SOL.
- Following the downturn: SOL is also dragged down by BTC and ETH declines, and due to its high volatility, it performs more drastically in the downward trend.
Market projection
Short-term projection (1-2 days ahead)
- Scenario one: Volume breakout above resistance, rebound continues (probability 40%)
- Trigger conditions: BTC breaks and holds above $62,942, ETH breaks above $1,648, SOL breaks above $66.07, with significant volume increase (volume ratio > 1.5).
- Target levels: BTC looks to MA99 ($62,747) and the $64,000 integer level; ETH looks to MA99 ($1,687) and $1,700; SOL looks to MA99 ($66.98) and $68.
- Core logic: Short covering (squeeze) and oversold rebounds resonate, driving short-term market sentiment warming.
- Scenario two: Resistance levels face rejection, consolidation or pullback (probability 60%)
- Trigger conditions: BTC encounters resistance and pulls back near $62,942, with volume failing to expand, confirming the stochastic death cross.
- Target levels: BTC retracing to MA7 ($62,145) or MA25 ($61,180); ETH retracing to MA7 ($1,613) or MA25 ($1,576); SOL retracing to MA7 ($64.68) or MA25 ($62.91).
- Core logic: Rebound momentum is fading, mid-term bearish trend suppresses, and the market opts for consolidation to digest selling pressure.
Medium-term projection (1-2 weeks ahead)
- Scenario one: Double bottom test (probability 50%)
- Trigger conditions: If the short-term rebound fails and prices drop below recent lows (BTC $60,353, ETH $1,542, SOL $61.26).
- Target levels: BTC may test the $58,000-$59,000 range; ETH may test $1,500 or even lower; SOL may test the $58-$60 range.
- Core logic: The rebound is just a continuation in the downtrend; the market continues to seek a bottom in the absence of clear bullish signals and incremental capital.
- Scenario two: Bottom consolidation (probability 30%)
- Trigger conditions: Prices oscillating between support and resistance levels with gradually shrinking volume and indicators gradually repairing.
- Target levels: BTC ranges between $60,000-$63,000; ETH ranges between $1,550-$1,650; SOL ranges between $61-$66.
- Core logic: Market forces are balanced, waiting for new catalysts (e.g., macro data, regulatory policies, technological upgrades) to choose a direction.
- Scenario three: Trend reversal upward (probability 20%)
- Trigger conditions: A clear macro-positive signal (e.g., Fed turning dovish), a major industry positive (e.g., ETF approvals), or BTC breaking through $65,000 with increased volume is needed.
- Target levels: BTC eyes $70,000; ETH eyes $1,800; SOL eyes $75.
- Core logic: Market sentiment has completely reversed, with significant capital inflows.
Risk warning
- Invalid conditions: All above projections are based on the current 1-hour technical patterns and known news. Should an unexpected black swan event occur (e.g., exchange hacks, regulatory bans, or rapid escalation of geopolitical conflicts), all technical analysis may instantly fail.
- Data to watch:
1. Trading volume: Whether the rebound can sustain hinges on whether trading volume can continue to expand. A volume-decreasing rebound is a dangerous signal.
2. BTC's $62,942 resistance level: This is a short-term battleground for bulls and bears; breaking through will determine the short-term direction.
3. ETH's $1,542 support level: If this level is breached, ETH may accelerate its decline and drag down the entire market.
4. News: Focus on follow-up reports from mainstream media like Cointelegraph regarding 'short squeezes' and 'oversold' conditions, as well as any new macro policies or industry news emerging.
5. Position data: Monitor changes in BTC and ETH futures open interest on exchanges. If short positions continue to decrease, it may indicate a short squeeze is occurring.
Summary: The current market is in a technical rebound phase after a major drop, but the mid-term bearish trend has not yet reversed. Investors should remain cautious, avoid chasing highs, and wait for confirmation of a breakout at key resistance levels or effective testing of support levels before making decisions. The strength of the rebound will ultimately be determined by trading volume.