1. December 1: The United States officially ends QT (Quantitative Tightening)

This marks one of the most critical liquidity turning points in this economic cycle. It signifies the official end of the liquidity withdrawal era that began in 2022. The market will shift from a "reduced volume game" to a "stock (or even incremental) game." This is extremely bullish for risk assets, especially Crypto and growth stocks.

The pause in QT means that "implicit easing" arrives early.

2. The Federal Reserve enters a quiet period

Once in the quiet period, all officials' speeches are completely suspended.

The market can only continue to speculate on whether there will be a rate cut in December through the three speeches + data this week.

After next Wednesday, it equates to a "rate cut expectation pricing freeze."

3. December 2, 09:00 Powell speaks

This is the most critical event of the week. Although the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period, Powell's every word and action are still closely watched by the market.

Considering that QT has just stopped, the market is extremely eager to know how he defines the upcoming monetary policy—whether it is a continuation of preemptive rate cuts or a wait-and-see approach regarding potential inflationary pressures.

If Powell intentionally releases hawkish statements ("suppressing rate cut expectations") to balance the benefits of the QT halt, the market may experience a sharp short-term drop.

4. December 2, 23:00 The most hawkish governor, Bowman, testifies in the House of Representatives

Her concession is worth more than five times that of an ordinary dove. If even she acknowledges that employment and inflationary pressures are easing, it indicates that the hawks within the Federal Reserve have been pierced by reality.

5. December 3: ADP data (November)

In the absence of major non-farm data, the importance of small non-farm data has increased compared to before and is the only window to observe U.S. employment.

If it is significantly weaker than expected = rate cut expectations are strengthened.

If stronger than expected = the market may reflexively interpret it as "data distortion, actually weaker."

6. December 5: September PCE

Although it was released two months late, it serves as an indicator of trends.

If the data is weaker than expected, it will enhance rate cut expectations. However, if this delayed September PCE shows signs of rising inflation at that time, although it is old data, it may be used by hawks as evidence that inflation could reignite due to fiscal stimulus, thereby interfering with the market's confidence in a rate cut in December.