At three o'clock in the morning, the trading volume of SOL perpetual contracts on Plasma suddenly surged—this is usually seen as a signal of smart money movement, making me sit up immediately from bed. I opened the market software and found that SOL was engaged in a silent battle around $138.
As a long-time observer of on-chain data, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: although SOL has been fluctuating on mainstream exchanges, the open interest of SOL futures on Plasma, known for its stability, has increased by 47% in the past 24 hours. This usually indicates that large funds are positioning themselves in this hidden battleground.
01 A signal most people overlook
When I analyzed the SOL trading data on Plasma in depth, I discovered three anomalies:
First, abnormal time distribution
Asian Session (0-6 AM): Trading volume accounts for 65%
European and American Sessions: Only accounts for 35%
This overturns traditional perceptions. Usually, SOL's trading peaks during European and American trading sessions, but this time the dominant force seems to come from Asia.
Second, abnormal order types
In the order book depth of Plasma:
Below $138, buy orders worth $120 million have accumulated
Above $140, there is a $85 million sell order pressuring
But the most interesting thing is: there are almost no orders in the narrow range of $138.50-$139.00
This forms a 'vacuum zone'—once the price breaks through this range, it may quickly move in one direction.
Third, cross-chain capital flow is abnormal
Via Plasma cross-chain bridge:
In the past 24 hours, 180,000 SOL flowed into the Ethereum ecosystem
At the same time, 95,000 SOL flowed out to the Cosmos ecosystem
Net inflow of 85,000 SOL, worth about $11.7 million
Funds are quietly laying out, but the direction is unclear.
02 Critical moment: Why is $138 so important?
In the trading history of Plasma, $138 has three special meanings for SOL:
Technical level
This is the midpoint of SOL's trading range on Plasma for three months
At this price level, the long-short ratio is close to a perfect balance of 1:1
In the past two weeks, options worth $430 million have been triggered at this price level
On-chain level
On Plasma, $138 is the maximum liquidation threshold concentration area
Above: $139.5 gathers $180 million in long liquidations
Below: $136.8 gathers $210 million in short liquidations
This means: whoever breaks $138.5 first may trigger a chain liquidation
Psychological level
In the Plasma community vote, $138 was selected by users as the 'psychological key level'
Over 60% of SOL holders have a cost price between $135-142
$138 is exactly the median of this cost range
03 Bull-bear confrontation: Two camps on Plasma
By analyzing Plasma's address data, I found two main forces:
Bull camp (represented by 'Whale A')
Accumulated a perpetual long position of SOL worth $42 million on Plasma
Average cost: $137.8
Using 2.5x leverage, set a trailing stop loss at $138.2
Also purchased call options with a strike price of $140 as a hedge
Bear camp (institutional market makers)
Continue to place sell orders in the $139-141 range through algorithms
At the same time, sell put options with a strike price between $135-138 on Plasma
Total risk exposure of about $28 million
Key third parties: Arbitrageurs
Utilizing the price difference between Plasma and other exchanges for triangular arbitrage
Currently stabilizing the SOL price between $138-139
They are an important force in maintaining the current balance
04 My trading plan: How to leverage Plasma's features
Based on the above analysis, I have developed this strategy on Plasma:
Phase One: Observe confirmation
Monitor changes in orders at the $138.5 price level on Plasma
Wait for at least $5 million worth of one-sided breakout
After confirming the breakout, check if the cross-chain capital flow is synchronized
Phase Two: Follow layout
If it breaks above $140:
Open a 2x leveraged long position on Plasma
Simultaneously buy call options with a strike price of $142
Set a stop loss 1% below the low point of the breakout candlestick
If it breaks down below $136.7:
Open a 1.5x leveraged short position
Sell put options with a strike price of $135 to collect premiums
Set a stop loss at $137.5
Phase Three: Risk management
No single trade exceeds 10% of total capital
Using Plasma's 'automatic partial liquidation' feature
Set price alerts: receive notifications every $0.5 fluctuation
05 The unique advantages Plasma offers me
Compared to traditional exchanges, Plasma provides three key advantages at this critical moment:
1. Cross-chain liquidity aggregation
I don't need to monitor multiple exchanges simultaneously—Plasma has aggregated liquidity from multiple ecosystems such as Ethereum, Solana, Cosmos, etc. This means:
Smaller slippage (average 0.05% vs CEX's 0.15%)
Deeper order book (especially at key price levels)
Fairer price discovery (no single market maker manipulation)
2. Transparent on-chain data
On Plasma, I can see:
Real buy orders at each price level (not phantom orders)
Real-time flow of large transactions
Exact position of liquidation thresholds
3. Flexible risk tools
I am able to:
Use any asset as collateral (not just stablecoins)
Set complex conditional orders (such as 'follow-up orders after breakout')
One-click cross-chain hedging
06 A warning: Errors most people will make
At this critical position of SOL, I observed three common mistakes:
Error One: Opening positions in the middle of the range
$138-139 is exactly the balance zone for bulls and bears
Opening positions here faces a 50% random volatility risk for both bulls and bears
Correct approach: Wait for boundary breakout before taking action
Error Two: Ignoring time value
Many people do not consider time decay when trading options on Plasma
The time value decay rate of SOL options is 1.5 times that of BTC
Correct approach: Short-term options (<7 days) should only be used as directional tools
Error Three: Over-reliance on technical indicators
On Plasma, on-chain data is more effective than technical indicators
For example: Order distribution > RSI; Capital flow > MACD
Correct approach: 70% weight on on-chain data, 30% on technical analysis
07 Final decision framework
Based on all analyses, my decision framework is as follows:
Entry signal (must satisfy all the following conditions):
The price of SOL on Plasma breaks above $139.8 or falls below $136.7
The trading volume during the breakout is more than three times the average of the previous five candlesticks
Cross-chain capital flow is consistent with the direction of the breakout
Main liquidation threshold has been triggered
Exit signal (satisfying any one of the conditions):
Reach target price (long 141.6/short 135.3)
Price returns below the breakout starting point
Holding time exceeds 48 hours without reaching target
Anomaly in the Plasma network (such as oracle delays)
Finally: Patience is the most precious quality at this moment
It is currently 4 AM Beijing time, and the price of SOL on Plasma is $138.42.
In the past 6 hours, this price level has been tested 17 times, but each time it was quickly pulled back. It's like two evenly matched boxers, probing each other in the final round, waiting for the other to show a flaw.
All my analyses and plans are in place. Now the only thing left to do is wait for the market to give that clear signal.
In this industry for ten years, I have learned the most important lesson:
True big trends often start when most people give up monitoring.
When SOL breaks through that critical price level on Plasma,
I hope I’m not the one who misses it because I fell asleep,
Nor the one who enters prematurely out of impatience.
But rather the one—prepared, waiting, and acting at the right moment.
