So, friends, have we been on the rollercoaster ride? 🎢 Just on June 1st, we were celebrating $BTC at $73,300, and already within 10 days, we got a juicy 21% correction with a retest at $61,000. No panic! Let's break it down simply and see what 6 stones suddenly flew into our crypto town:
1️⃣ Geopolitics and oil. Instead of peace talks, the US and Iran are trading blows again, even hitting the airport in Kuwait. Because of this, oil prices are rising, inflation is climbing, and investors are fleeing from risky assets into safe havens.
2️⃣ “Sailor” betrayed? Since 2022, the Strategy company has sold… as much as 32 BTC for the first time. A trifle, but the market got so scared that the price dropped by 16% from the moment of the sale. Everyone is afraid that, due to big debts and their average purchase price of $75,699, they’ll have to sell more.
3️⃣ ETF crane flow back in. In one day, American spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled out a record $1.42 billion, with BlackRock (IBIT) leading the selling. Instead of acting like a “perpetual buyer,” the funds have started behaving like a regular risk asset.
4️⃣ Quantum horror stories. Rumors are flying that in 2–3 years quantum computers (enough to have just 10,000 qubits) will be able to break our beloved 256-bit cryptographic key for protection like it's just seeds. As a precaution, institutions are spooked.
5️⃣ Cascade of liquidations. In just a day, positions were wiped out totaling almost $1.2 billion, mostly longs. One forcibly closed long pushed the price down, triggering a chain reaction of the next liquidations. A classic crypto setup with big leverage.
6️⃣ The Fed is tightening the screws. Because of inflation and expensive oil, expectations for Fed rate cuts have simply been put on hold. And expensive money is always a bad backdrop for crypto.
🔮 Where to look for the bottom and what comes next?
$60,000 level — our strong support. Mining setups are already operating right at the edge of profitability here, and the sentiment indices have slipped into a zone of extreme panic and oversold.
$54,000 level — the deepest point (realized Bitcoin price). Below this, the average coin holder ends up in a loss that has historically become a zone of strong accumulation.
Scenarios for the coming weeks:
🚀 Bullish: If the U.S. and Iran reach a ceasefire, ETFs will stop bleeding, and the Fed will hint at rate cuts in the fall — they could very well recover to $75,000–80,000 by the end of summer.
🐻 Bearish: A new escalation in the war, panic selling from Strategy, and continued outflows from ETFs could force us to test the $55,000–58,000 level.
We’re waiting for positive catalysts—no panic and no going all-in with 100x leverage! Have you already bought up at these lows? 👇
