Tonight's data #美国就业超预期比特币下跌 shows a significant deviation, which could greatly reduce the likelihood of rate cuts this year, and even suggest rate hikes. The market, $BTC $ETH , is still in for a tough ride.
But let's dive deeper, starting with this guy Waller. He's loaded, got connections, and his wife is the granddaughter of the founder of Estée Lauder. Personal net worth? A cool $200 million. His father-in-law is a buddy of Trump and was also a previous backer. Waller is known to be quite principled, not afraid of the powerful. His main goal seems to be to cut down inflation and reduce debt. He has consistently argued that the Fed's approach over the past decade or so was wrong, advocating for balance sheet reduction (which basically means tightening up the dollar supply to prevent debt from snowballing due to leverage). However, he’s also pushing for rate cuts, which is a bit of a mixed message. Generally, hawkish types focus on rate hikes, but he’s advocating for a “rate cut + balance sheet reduction” combo. That's pretty contradictory. Typically, rate hikes plus balance sheet reduction effectively curb inflation and debt, but his approach seems to be a bit loose and tight at the same time. I’m a bit confused. Looking ahead to this rate meeting, a rate hike is possible, but not highly likely. We can't starve people just to control inflation, right? The chance of a rate cut also seems low. If a cut happens, it will likely come with balance sheet reduction. Speaking of balance sheet reduction, that's the most probable outcome. We might see rate hikes with balance sheet reduction, rate cuts with balance sheet reduction, or pure balance sheet reduction, and he’s all for it. That’s not exactly a good sign, likely leaning bearish.
In summary, just going by gut feeling, here’s a probability estimate:
Rate hike 30%
Rate cut 5%
Balance sheet reduction 65%
The combo play isn’t looking too promising. What’s your take?