Current situation (June 5, 2026):

Price: $1.607 (down -9.16% in the last 24 hours).

Short-term trend: strong bearish, with a break below MA60 (1.635).

Volume: relatively high in the red candlesticks → real sell-off.

Overall market: experiencing selling pressure (risk-off) affecting most altcoins.

Technical Analysis:

Key levels currently:

Immediate support: $1.59 – $1.55 (24-hour low + previous support zone).

Strong support: $1.50 – $1.45.

First resistance: 1.635 (MA60) → 1.70.

Key resistance: $1.80 – $1.90 – $2.00 (psychological and previous levels).

Indicators:

Price is below moving averages → bearish signal.

Volume rises on the decline → weak buying.

RSI and MACD (from the chart): they tend toward the oversold zone, which may help a near-term technical rebound.

Possible scenarios:

1. The bearish scenario (most likely right now - 55–60%):

Selling pressure continues if it breaks below 1.59.

Next target: 1.50 then 1.40–1.45.

Reason: Weak general market + strong selling volume.

2. The rebound scenario (Bullish Rebound - 35–40%):

If it holds above 1.59–1.60 and returns above 1.635.

First target: 1.70–1.80.

Second target: 1.90–2.00.

Helps: Oversold zone + positive news from Telegram or the TON Ecosystem (e.g., updates, VeVe, or a Gram rebrand).

3. The sideways scenario (Consolidation):

Chop between 1.55–1.70 for a few days before a clear direction is taken.

Fundamental analysis (Fundamentals):

TON positives: Strong link to Telegram (millions of users), growth in DeFi and GameFi, network updates (lower fees).

Downsides: Broad sell pressure, potential token unlock, and intense competition from Solana and others.

General 2026 outlook (from multiple sources): most analyses expect a range of $2.5–$4.5 by end of 2026 if the market improves, but the short term remains risky.

Practical advice:

Conservatives: Wait for stabilization above 1.635 before entering.

Professionals: You can buy partially at 1.55–1.59 with a stop-loss below 1.50.

Watch: trading volume, news from Pavel Durov/Telegram, and Bitcoin (BTC).

Summary: The short-term trend is bearish, but TON is close to support zones that could lead to a strong rebound if overall conditions improve. The market is very volatile—don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.

$TON