In May 2026, Google's quantum AI team pointed out in a white paper that the optimized Shor algorithm could reduce the quantum resources required to crack Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography (ECC-256) by 20 times, theoretically needing only about 500,000 physical qubits to derive a private key from a public key in just 9 minutes. This time frame aligns with the average confirmation time of #比特币 $BTC transactions (around 10 minutes), pushing the theoretical attack possibilities to unprecedented real-world heights. This report directly sparked betting activity on the on-chain prediction market Polymarket regarding 'the possibility of quantum computers cracking Bitcoin private keys by 2027.' Although the specific amounts and ratios of the bets on this contract have not been disclosed, it quickly became an important window for observing the market's expectations around quantum threats.