Raoul Pal, who led European hedge fund sales at Goldman Sachs before founding Real Vision, dismissed claims that money is flowing out of crypto and into tech stocks. He points out that the data tells a different story.
His response came as U.S. stocks were tanking at Wednesday's open, pressured by fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve and stalled negotiations between Iran and the United States.
Pal challenges the narrative that cryptocurrencies are done, rejecting the sentiment that capital now prefers AI and chip manufacturers.
To back up his claims, he measures returns from the liquidity cycle low in 2022, when the FTX collapse drove Bitcoin close to $15,700 in November.
From that low, Bitcoin has surged around 318%, trading near $65,800. The Nasdaq 100 has risen approximately 187% over the same period, hovering around $30,660.
This gap is central to his argument. Bitcoin has outperformed the tech index by a wide margin, even after a recent sharp correction.
Pal argues that liquidity cycles, not market narratives, are what drive prices. He has defended this stance since launching Global Macro Investor in 2005 and views the current weakness as a mid-cycle correction.
"The narrative that 'cryptocurrencies are dead, everything is going towards tech stocks' is appealing, but these are the actual results since the liquidity cycle low in 2022..." Pal wrote.
Other analysts also expect cryptocurrencies to outperform tech stocks.
Bitcoin is trading below its record while stocks wobble.
Despite the accumulated gains, Bitcoin has cooled off recently. The token traded around $65,800 this Wednesday, with an approximate decline of 2.7% in the last 24 hours. This is far below its all-time high of $126,080, although its market cap still exceeds $1.3 trillion.
Meanwhile, stocks opened weak. Over $500 billion was wiped off U.S. stocks in just 20 minutes after the open, according to analyst Bull Theory.
"U.S. equity indexes pulled back from their highs amid risks from a hawkish Federal Reserve and lack of progress between Iran and the U.S. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined, and the Dow lost 0.5%. ADP data showed the private sector added a net 122,000 jobs in May, above expectations, giving the Fed room to raise rates and fight inflation," wrote analysts from Trading Economics.
Pal's approach has both followers and critics. Supporters argue that the data confirms that global liquidity expansion favors high beta assets like Bitcoin.
Skeptics argue that he picked the exact bottom. Others say that AI has changed how capital flows towards stocks now.
Pal also asserts that Bitcoin is trading at a discount relative to liquidity conditions. His models point to a higher liquidity target once financial conditions ease again.
of course but its still surprising even to me after a 50% short in BTC and 80% in Others.
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) June 3, 2026
The leading cryptocurrency's correlation with the Nasdaq has strengthened over the past year. This relationship can be positive or negative, as Bitcoin tends to drop harder when stocks slide.