XRP has fallen to its lowest level since February, with total withdrawals exceeding 66%, but spot ETF inflows reached $131 million this month, highlighting a contrast between strong fundamentals and weak technicals. If the key support at $1.20 is lost, we could see a dip to $1.00; it will take a reclaim of $1.40 to potentially restart the bull run. Regulatory victories and a $50 billion valuation offer long-term support, but short-term momentum remains bearish.

XRP is currently in the red. The token is trading between $1.21 and $1.24, down 2% today, with a worse performance on the weekly chart, dropping 7%.

Since earlier this week, the sell-off has accelerated, continuing the downtrend that started when XRP peaked at $1.55 in mid-May. Since that high, the token has broken through a key support zone, hitting its lowest price since February.

All of the above factors mean cumulative outflows are more than 66% higher than last year’s historical peak. However, this decline is broad-based: the total crypto market cap has plunged from over $4 trillion to just $2.4 trillion, because most altcoins fell in double digits alongside XRP.

But this seems unusual for XRP. Just in May, the spot XRP ETF saw gains of more than $131 million—its strongest monthly performance this year—while Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin asset size is now over $1.8 billion, with a 30-day trading volume of $22 billion. Strong fundamentals, weak price.

Can XRP’s price rebound to $1.50? The reality is that it can.

XRP has broken below support and still hasn’t recovered it. The key focus is the $1.20 range, which acted as consolidation support for most of the first quarter. If the daily close confirms a breakdown below this level, it will open the path to the $1.00–$1.05 market; the last time this range was tested was at the end of 2024.

On the upside, the former support level near $1.40–$1.45 has turned into resistance; reclaiming that level is the minimum requirement for any credible bull case.

There are three possible short-term paths. If ETF inflows accelerate, sentiment flips, and XRP recovers $1.40 within two weeks, XRP’s price may ultimately rebound. Or, as the market stabilizes, it could trade sideways between $1.20 and $1.35.

Now let’s talk about the bad scenario. If the $1.20 baseline cracks and momentum sellers flood in, the token could retest levels below $1.10. Right now, momentum indicators lean toward the bearish zone.

Ripple’s regulatory win, the approvals it has received in the UK, Australia, and the EU, and the company valuation of $50 billion provide a long-term floor for market sentiment. AI-driven pricing models remain bullish over the next 12 months, but short-term technical signals still call for caution.