Global major events from May 25 to May 31 (Briefing)
💰[Binance Alpha Weekly Recap (Briefing)]
☀️Total airdrops issued in the past week: 3
⭐️2 advance announcements, 1 ad-hoc announcement
⭐️Highest and lowest thresholds: 241/211
⭐️Average airdrop value: 100 U
(QAIT recently skyrocketed, currently valued at 600 u, pretty wild)
✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦ ✦
☀️Simplified recap of major global financial and crypto events
🌍 Keywords: 'US-Iran peace tug-of-war', 'oil prices deep V', 'AI stocks hitting new highs', 'BTC ETF continuous outflows', 'HYPE defying the odds to hit new highs'
🏛【Macro and geopolitics: Peace narrative vs military reality in tug-of-war】
⭐️ 📅 5/25-26 US-Iran peace expectations rise, oil prices initially crash: Trump states that the US-Iran peace memorandum is 'basically finalized,' with the market betting on a 60-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading Brent and WTI to quickly retreat and risk assets briefly stabilize.
⭐️ 📅 5/27-28 Military conflicts interrupt peace pricing, crude oil performs a deep V: The US military continues to act in southern Iran and related areas of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran responding strongly, causing oil prices to rebound from a sharp drop, and the market re-pricing geopolitical risk premiums.
⭐️ 📅 5/28-29 US data releases signal 'stagflation': The Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6%, with April's core PCE rising to 3.3%, keeping inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve's target, and the 'higher for longer' expectation continues to suppress rate cut trades.
📅 Cross-asset divergence intensifies: Oil prices are pulled back and forth by narratives of peace and conflict, while US stocks continue to strengthen driven by AI chips and quantum computing concepts, showing a noticeable loosening of correlation between traditional safe-haven and risk assets.
💰【Major event in crypto: ETF stress testing and BTC key levels breached】
⭐️ 📅 BTC breaks below $75,000, testing key support: Bitcoin dipped within the $76,000-$77,000 range this week, reaching a low near $74,000, with a slight weekly decline, reflecting that the crypto market failed to follow the risk-on rhythm of the US stock market.
⭐️ 📅 Spot BTC ETF sees net outflows for multiple days, institutional buying slows: The US spot bitcoin ETF has experienced record levels of continuous outflows, with the largest single day outflow exceeding $700 million, including approximately $528 million from BlackRock IBIT, becoming a core variable suppressing BTC.
📅 ETH and mainstream altcoins face pressure: Ethereum, SOL, and other mainstream assets follow BTC in a downward trend, with market funds leaning towards defense, leveraged funds being passively reduced, and short-term rebounds lacking confirmation from the ETF side.
📅 Sentiment plunges into extreme fear: The Fear and Greed Index remains in the 23-28 range, indicating that while prices have not experienced a waterfall collapse, confidence in macro rates, ETF outflows, and geopolitical conflict is still weak.
🏢【Institutional movements and regulatory updates】
⭐️ 📅 SpaceX S-1 disclosure of 18,712 BTC: SpaceX's IPO filing shows it holds 18,712 bitcoins, far exceeding previous market on-chain tracking expectations, strengthening the narrative of 'tech giants holding crypto on their balance sheets.'
⭐️ 📅 Hyperliquid (HYPE) defies trends to hit all-time high: HYPE refreshed its peak driven by ETF inflows, institutional buying, and on-chain derivatives narratives, becoming one of the few strong assets this week, breaking away from BTC's weak structure.
📅 US quantum computing subsidies ignite tech stocks: The US Department of Commerce approved approximately $2.013 billion in incentives for 9 quantum computing companies under the CHIPS Act, with related stocks like Rigetti, D-Wave, and Infleqtion soaring, as tech risk appetite continues to spill over.
📅 Sui mainnet experiences three outages exposing L1 stability risks: Sui faced three mainnet outages from 5/28-29 due to a bug related to the v1.72 upgrade. Although the official statement claims user funds were unaffected, the incident undermines market trust in the stability of high-performance L1s.
📊【Market review: US stocks show strong divergence, crypto market sentiment remains at rock bottom】
US stocks outperform crypto market: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, with Micron soaring due to an AI memory shortage narrative and entering the trillion-dollar market cap range, as AI and quantum computing become the main themes in traditional markets.
Crypto funding structure remains weak: Continuous outflows from BTC ETFs, BTC breaking critical psychological levels, and mainstream coins struggling to rebound show that institutional funds are shifting from 'chasing rallies' to 'defensive retreats.'
Key observations for next week: Will the US-Iran memorandum materialize, will the Strait of Hormuz see a substantial recovery, will oil prices rally again, can BTC ETF stop the bleeding, and will high-performance public chains like Sui face valuation repricing due to stability issues?