The airdrop of Arbitrum’s native token ARB is about to be released. How to value it?

Author | Decrypt Nivesh Rustgi
Compiled | PANews
On March 16, the Arbitrum Foundation announced that the native token ARB will be airdropped to eligible community member wallets on March 23. As the token airdrop time approaches, how to evaluate the value of ARB tokens has also become a focus of community attention.
Analysts believe that since both Optimism and Arbitrum have similar Layer 2 network technology stacks (Optimism uses OptimisticRollups and launched its native token in April 2022), the OP valuation of Optimism’s native token can be used as a reference.
 Estimate ARB price
1. Valuation of token circulation supply
According to Coingecko data, the market value of Optimism as of March 20 was approximately US$839 million, the OP token was priced at approximately US$2.63, and the circulating supply was US$314.8 million. In comparison, after the airdrop is completed on Thursday, 1.275 billion ARB tokens will flow into the market. Since the total supply of ARB tokens is 10 billion, it means that the market circulation accounts for approximately 12.75% of the total supply.
Token Circulating Supply Market Cap How many tokens will be traded on the market, excluding tokens locked for allocation, and token market cap is calculated by multiplying the token price by the circulating supply. If the ARB token valuation is similar to the OP token, you can divide the current OP token market cap (approximately $839 million) by the ARB token circulating supply ($1.275 billion), and then arrive at the potential price of ARB at approximately $0.65. .
2. Fully diluted valuation
In addition to estimating based on the circulating supply of tokens, there is another method of fully diluted valuation (FDV). Taking Optimism as an example, the current total supply of OP tokens is approximately 4.29 billion, and the fully diluted valuation of OP tokens is approximately US$11.45 billion (valuation based on the total supply of tokens).
A fully diluted valuation of a token is calculated by multiplying the market price of the token by the total supply. Since this method takes into account the tokens unlocked at a future date, this valuation method is better than estimating the market cap based on the circulating supply. More forward-looking. If the fully diluted value of the ARB token is similar to Optimism, then the estimated ARB token price would be around $1.15 - take the fully diluted value of the OP token ($11.45 billion) divided by the total supply of ARB tokens The amount (10 billion pieces) is obtained.
 DeFi lock-up amount of second-layer protocol
Given that Arbitrum will play an important role in the DeFi field, using the total locked position (TotalValueLocked) can also provide more information. The total amount of funds deposited in the token DeFi protocol network is an assessment of the liquidity of the DeFi ecosystem. index of.
According to DeFiLlama data, Arbitrum is the chain with the fourth largest locked position, currently approximately US$1.77 billion. In terms of lock-up volume in other blockchains, Ethereum ranked first with a scale of US$29.1 billion, Tron and BSC ranked second and third with US$5.3 billion and US$4.79 billion respectively, and Optimism’s lock-up volume was approximately 982.4 million US dollars. Dollar.
Based on the locked amount, we can value the ARB token through a metric called "TVL ratio". The TVL ratio is calculated by dividing the locked amount by two projects (such as Arbitrum and Optimism) to measure the two The relative strength of liquidity in an ecosystem.
According to the calculation rules, the "TVL ratio" value of Arbitrum and Optimism is 1.8 (17.7/9.8). If this number is multiplied by the above-mentioned token price based on circulation valuation and fully diluted valuation, ARB can be obtained respectively The tokens are valued at approximately $1.16 and $2.07.
 How much can you earn from ARB airdrop?
Overall, based on the above valuation analysis, ARB tokens are likely to trade between $0.64 and $2.07, and most early Arbitrum users will be allocated 625 ARB tokens, which is equivalent to the airdrop ARB tokens they can get Value ranges from approximately $400 to $1,250.
In addition, the maximum airdrop number of ARB tokens that some Arbitrum users can receive is 10,250, which means that approximately 4,400 wallets can receive ARB tokens worth between $6,500 and $20,600.