1. Trend Determination
1. EMA Structure: 12 < 21 < 73 and all three lines are synchronously declining, a typical bearish arrangement.
2. ADX 43 → Trend strength is high (>25), direction is down.
3. The price has fallen for 10 consecutive 4H candles, with a recent 5-period decline of -5%, momentum has not exhausted.
Conclusion: Main trend = Bearish, bottom structure has not yet appeared.
2. Should we open a position? Direction?
"Only follow the main trend" principle:
- It is not recommended to blindly catch a falling knife;
- Wait for a small level (4H-1H) rebound exhaustion after breaking down, then short.
→ Strategy: Wait for a rebound to the "short zone" before shorting, rather than chasing the price down.
3. Specific Entry Plan
1. Short Zone: 92,800 – 93,600 $ (≈ between EMA12 and EMA21, also the small level support turned resistance area on November 27).
2. Trigger Conditions: After the 4H close returns above 92,800 $, if a 1H level RSI divergence or MACD death cross appears, it is the entry signal.
3. Position Size: Within 10% of the principal, 2× leverage is sufficient, no need for high multiples.
4. Risk Control and Profit/Loss Ratio
1. Stop Loss: 96,000 $ (= EMA21 + 1×ATR, risk ≈ 3.3%).
2. First Take Profit: 87,600 $ (= previous low on November 25, RR 1:1.6).
3. Second Take Profit: 83,000 $ (= 0.382 retracement level + 2.6×ATR, RR 1:2.8).
4. Moving Stop Loss: For every downward breakthrough of 1,500 $, the stop loss moves down 1,500 $, locking in profits.
5. Main Risk Factors
1. Macroeconomic: Non-farm payrolls on December 6 + FOMC on December 18, fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. bond yields may trigger violent rebounds.
2. On-chain: ETF funds have net inflows for 3 consecutive days, if a single day >500 M$, it can quickly reverse sentiment.
3. Derivatives: Perpetual funding rates have turned negative at -0.012%, shorts are excessively crowded, ready to trigger a short squeeze of 3,000-4,000 $.
4. Technical Failure: If the 4H closing price stands above 97,300 $ (EMA73 + 1×ATR), the bearish structure is destroyed, must exit unconditionally.
6. Execution Checklist (Order conditions can be placed directly)
- Limit Short: 93,200 $
- Stop Loss: 96,000 $ (GTC)
- Staged Take Profit: 87,600 $ (close 50%), 83,000 $ (close remaining 50%)
- Time Filter: If 92,800 $ is not reached within 48 hours, all pending orders will be canceled to prevent exhausting margin during prolonged sideways movement.
$BTC
1. EMA Structure: 12 < 21 < 73 and all three lines are synchronously declining, a typical bearish arrangement.
2. ADX 43 → Trend strength is high (>25), direction is down.
3. The price has fallen for 10 consecutive 4H candles, with a recent 5-period decline of -5%, momentum has not exhausted.
Conclusion: Main trend = Bearish, bottom structure has not yet appeared.
2. Should we open a position? Direction?
"Only follow the main trend" principle:
- It is not recommended to blindly catch a falling knife;
- Wait for a small level (4H-1H) rebound exhaustion after breaking down, then short.
→ Strategy: Wait for a rebound to the "short zone" before shorting, rather than chasing the price down.
3. Specific Entry Plan
1. Short Zone: 92,800 – 93,600 $ (≈ between EMA12 and EMA21, also the small level support turned resistance area on November 27).
2. Trigger Conditions: After the 4H close returns above 92,800 $, if a 1H level RSI divergence or MACD death cross appears, it is the entry signal.
3. Position Size: Within 10% of the principal, 2× leverage is sufficient, no need for high multiples.
4. Risk Control and Profit/Loss Ratio
1. Stop Loss: 96,000 $ (= EMA21 + 1×ATR, risk ≈ 3.3%).
2. First Take Profit: 87,600 $ (= previous low on November 25, RR 1:1.6).
3. Second Take Profit: 83,000 $ (= 0.382 retracement level + 2.6×ATR, RR 1:2.8).
4. Moving Stop Loss: For every downward breakthrough of 1,500 $, the stop loss moves down 1,500 $, locking in profits.
5. Main Risk Factors
1. Macroeconomic: Non-farm payrolls on December 6 + FOMC on December 18, fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. bond yields may trigger violent rebounds.
2. On-chain: ETF funds have net inflows for 3 consecutive days, if a single day >500 M$, it can quickly reverse sentiment.
3. Derivatives: Perpetual funding rates have turned negative at -0.012%, shorts are excessively crowded, ready to trigger a short squeeze of 3,000-4,000 $.
4. Technical Failure: If the 4H closing price stands above 97,300 $ (EMA73 + 1×ATR), the bearish structure is destroyed, must exit unconditionally.
6. Execution Checklist (Order conditions can be placed directly)
- Limit Short: 93,200 $
- Stop Loss: 96,000 $ (GTC)
- Staged Take Profit: 87,600 $ (close 50%), 83,000 $ (close remaining 50%)
- Time Filter: If 92,800 $ is not reached within 48 hours, all pending orders will be canceled to prevent exhausting margin during prolonged sideways movement.
$BTC