Retreat or Buy the Dip? How is the U.S. Treasury Grabbing Crypto by the Throat? #美国结束政府停摆

Stocks and gold are soaring, while BTC and altcoins are struggling this year. What are the reasons for the market's lethargy?

1. The liquidity contraction caused by the U.S. government shutdown has led to the expansion of the Treasury General Account (TGA). We can understand this as the U.S. Treasury being in a state of only receiving funds and not disbursing them, and the shutdown has paused government spending, which acts as a form of hidden interest rate hike, indirectly leading to higher financing costs in the market and thus weakening liquidity. The government will eventually reopen, and the money lying idle will have to be spent; a "revenge buying" wave will come.

2. On the other hand, the government shutdown has created a dangerous regulatory vacuum. Key legislation, especially the Clarity Act aimed at regulating the market structure of digital assets, has completely stalled. If the market structure bill is not passed this year, related discussions may be delayed until the politically charged mid-term elections of 2026, which will increase market volatility.

3. The divergence of BTC from traditional market trends is a "quiet takeover." This is not driven by panic but rather a fundamental shift in BTC ownership from early pioneers to a new generation of institutional investors.

4. Additionally, Binance's CEFFU has collaborated with BlackRock, which means institutional clients can use U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral. This also signifies progress in on-chain treasury funds and expectations of liquidity replenishment.

I will not retreat.