This round of Bitcoin's rebound has ended, dropping back to 7w6. After hitting 8w2, I offloaded some bags. But I’m pretty concerned that this drop isn’t thorough enough. Here’s the kicker: as a high-risk asset, if Bitcoin doesn’t drop hard enough, it can’t rally.
Bitcoin's positioning is super awkward right now; it’s not even outperforming the US stock market, which is the biggest risk.
According to CaseBitcoin data, BTC is down about -27% over the past year, while gold is up +41% and the S&P 500 is up +25%. So, this year, forget about beating Nvidia or Apple; you can’t even outpace gold or the broader market.
If 60k is the bottom this round, hitting 120k means a double. If 40k is the bottom, the difference with holding US stocks isn’t that significant.
If it doesn’t drop enough, it can’t pump. But if we keep grinding around 70k, 80k, and 90k, Bitcoin will just become a stablecoin... liquidity will be completely drained.
Bitcoin's positioning is super awkward right now; it’s not even outperforming the US stock market, which is the biggest risk.
According to CaseBitcoin data, BTC is down about -27% over the past year, while gold is up +41% and the S&P 500 is up +25%. So, this year, forget about beating Nvidia or Apple; you can’t even outpace gold or the broader market.
If 60k is the bottom this round, hitting 120k means a double. If 40k is the bottom, the difference with holding US stocks isn’t that significant.
If it doesn’t drop enough, it can’t pump. But if we keep grinding around 70k, 80k, and 90k, Bitcoin will just become a stablecoin... liquidity will be completely drained.