On November 1, 2025, I published an article on my WeChat public account, 3 O'Clock Blockchain, titled "When Will the Once-in-Four-Year Bitcoin Bull Market End?", and concluded with a bold statement: "This is the end of the crypto market's euphoria, and altcoins only have a few days left."
This is no joke; the underlying logic of making money in a bear market is kicking in. Too many people treat bear markets as a "disaster," forgetting the ironclad rule of the crypto world: bull markets are wealth bubbles, while bear markets are value filters and, more importantly, a "cash cow" for contrarian investors.
Drawing on my 12 years of practical experience in crypto investing, and the core logic behind my precise market top timing, I've broken down bear market strategies for different risk levels into this guide—whether you're a newcomer or a seasoned investor with millions, you can find your own survival strategy. After all, in the crypto market, making money during a bear market is the true skill for navigating cycles. Welcome to listen to our podcast 🔽
Three key signals for accurately identifying market tops: How can I pinpoint the end of a bull market in advance?
The most frequently asked question lately is: "What makes you so sure that November 1st was the peak?" The answer lies in three details that retail investors overlook—these signals and logic are not only applicable to this cycle, but can also become your "core tool" for judging future bull-bear market transitions.
1. Emotional contrarian indicator: Even those who understand finance the least are starting to leverage their investments.
Sentiment in the crypto market always precedes price movements—the market frenzy in late October reached a counterintuitive level, with three particularly striking signals:
The influx of newbies has reached extremes: Mr. Wang, the owner of the restaurant downstairs from me, who couldn't even read candlestick charts before, kept asking me every day, "Which altcoin can make you rich overnight?" In the end, he bought a "Dogecoin fork" that didn't even have a white paper; the community was full of posts about "students using borrowing money to buy more" and "stay-at-home moms selling their houses to buy in"—this scene is exactly the same as the peak of the bull markets in 2017 and 2021: when even the most conservative people start gambling, there's no new money to enter the market.
Media narratives have become utterly inflated: a leading crypto media outlet's headlines are filled with "XX coin will become the next Bitcoin" and "Hold these three coins, retire next year," but not a single article mentions "Has the project been launched?" or "Who is the team?" Even more outrageous, they created a "Altcoin Gainers List," packaging worthless coins with a market capitalization of just over a million as "potential rising stars"—this isn't helping you make money, it's helping the big players find suckers to take over their positions.
The Fear & Greed Index is flashing red: From October 28th to 31st, this index remained above 90 in the "extreme greed" range for four consecutive days, the first time this has happened since November 2021. I reviewed 10 years of data: an index above 85 followed by three consecutive days of gains has a 92% probability of a pullback within 15 days; the "extreme greed" level above 90 has only occurred twice before—in December 2017 and November 2021—both times being the peak of bull markets.
On November 1st, in a group of 10,000 people I frequent, someone shouted, "Bitcoin will definitely break 150,000 by the end of the year," and the group immediately gained over a thousand new members that day. With these three signals combined, I immediately concluded: the bull market was over.
2. Fund Flow: Smart money has already quietly slipped away.
Retail investors look at prices, while experts look at capital flows. Starting in mid-October, on-chain data revealed signs of "smart money" withdrawing, but nobody paid attention.
Whale address activity: From October 20th to 30th, "whales" holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins transferred a total of 23,000 BTC to exchanges, resulting in a net outflow of $1.3 billion. This is exactly the same operation as at the peak in 2021: whales never dump their holdings at the highest point, but rather quietly distribute their tokens to retail investors during periods of frenzy.
Stablecoin ammunition depleted: USDT and USDC are the "ammunition arsenal" of the crypto market. During bull markets, people deposit funds, increasing the issuance of stablecoins; at the peak, when the ammunition runs out, the issuance drops. In late October, the circulating supply of USDT decreased by 8% compared to the beginning of the month, and USDC by 12%—the market ran out of "ammunition," so prices naturally couldn't rise.
VCs Exiting Early: I specifically tracked the wallet addresses of several top VCs and discovered that a well-known Web3 fund transferred all 15 altcoins to exchanges and sold them between October 25th and 31st, including the then-popular "AI public chain" project. VCs are the people closest to the project; if they've all run away, I have no reason to stay.
3. Altcoin Bubble: The "Doomsday Frenzy" Before It Goes to Zero
The end of a bull market is inevitably the "doomsday frenzy" of altcoins. From mid to the end of October, a batch of "three-no altcoins" (no technology, no team, no application) began to surge: a certain "metaverse game coin" rose by 3000% in 7 days, and a certain "cross-chain coin" had a daily turnover rate of over 200%, which seemed even more attractive than Bitcoin.
I randomly selected five coins that had increased more than a thousandfold, and they were all using the same tricks: their white papers were copied from Ethereum, with only the keyword "AI" changed; the team members' photos were stolen from internet celebrities; their on-chain TVL (total value locked) was less than $100,000, but their market value was inflated to $500 million—all thanks to "group buying and promotion + spamming by online trolls."
The manipulation was more obvious: the price was driven up precisely at 10 a.m. every day to attract retail investors, then the price was dumped starting at 2 p.m., and a small price increase was made in the evening to stabilize investor sentiment. This is why I decisively shorted 10 altcoins, among which "XX AI Public Chain Coin" dropped from $0.5 to $0.003, and the return on this coin alone was 165 times.
The underlying logic of making money in a bear market: do the opposite, and you'll make big money.
I've experienced three major bear markets: 2014, 2018, and 2022. I've seen people lose their down payments and jump off buildings, and I've also seen people grow their initial investment of 50,000 yuan into 800,000 yuan. The difference between the two isn't the amount of initial capital, but whether they've thoroughly understood the profit-making logic of a bear market.
1. First, break the misconception that "bear markets always lead to losses".
Many people lose money because they are trapped by the idea that "bear market = losing money". But the crypto market allows for two-way trading, and there are actually more opportunities to make money in a bear market than in a bull market: in a bull market you can only buy low and sell high, while in a bear market you can short sell, buy the dip, and also take advantage of airdrops and arbitrage.
The data doesn't lie: In the 2018 bear market, shorting Bitcoin yielded an average return of 230%; in the 2022 bear market, those who relied on airdrops and arbitrage achieved annualized returns exceeding 80%. The core principle is to reverse the "buy high, sell low" strategy: while others panic and sell at a loss, you sift through value assets; while others avoid altcoins, you short-sell worthless coins; while others lie low and do nothing, you find arbitrage opportunities within the established rules.
2. Focus on the core contradiction: the differentiation between value and bubble.
In a bull market, worthless cryptocurrencies rise along with Bitcoin, making it difficult to distinguish which has value. In a bear market, the market uses the most ruthless methods to filter them: Bitcoin and Ethereum will stabilize once they reach their bottom, while worthless cryptocurrencies will plummet to zero. This "differentiation" is the most lucrative opportunity to make money.
During the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted from $20,000 to $3,200, a drop of 84%, but rebounded to $60,000 two years later. PulseCoin, the then-star coin, fell from $0.01 to $0.00001, essentially becoming worthless. In the 2022 bear market, Ethereum fell from $4,800 to $881, rebounding to $2,100 in 2023; while SHIB fell from $0.00008 to $0.000008 and has yet to recover.
The essence lies in the difference of "value support": Bitcoin and Ethereum have ecosystems, teams, and real-world applications; their declines are merely "emotional corrections." In contrast, worthless cryptocurrencies have no support; their rises are driven by "speculation," and the bubble bursts when funds withdraw during a bear market. Therefore, the first principle for making money in a bear market is: stay away from bubbles and embrace value; short the worthless and buy the dip in core assets—this is also the core logic of my current operation.
3. Replace "market anxiety" with cyclical thinking.
The bull and bear markets in the crypto market follow a unique pattern: since 2009, Bitcoin has completed four bull and bear cycles, each lasting approximately four years, with bear markets lasting twice as long as bull markets. Bear markets are not bottomless pits, but rather "phased adjustments," where declines are preparations for the next upward move.
Looking at historical data provides a clearer picture: In the 2014 bear market, BTC fell from $1,100 to $170 (a drop of 84%), lasting 14 months; in 2018, it fell from $20,000 to $3,200 (an 84% drop), lasting 18 months; and in 2022, it fell from $69,000 to $15,500 (a 78% drop), lasting 12 months. The decline in each bear market is narrowing, while the peak of the bull markets is rising—$20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021, and $59,800 in 2024.
My friend Tao Tao is a beneficiary of cyclical thinking: He invested in BTC during the mid-term of the 2018 bear market, with an initial cost of $6,000, and sold it for $60,000 in 2021, making a 10-fold profit; in 2022, he invested again for $18,000, and partially took profits at $55,000 in 2024. The two bear markets increased his assets 30 times. He said, "A bear market is like winter; no matter how cold it is, it will pass. The key is to stock up on enough food during winter."
Conservative strategy: For beginners/risk-averse individuals, a steady return of 10%-30%.
If you're new to the crypto space or don't want to take on high risks, this strategy is perfect for you. The returns aren't as high as short selling, but they're much more stable, offering 10%-30% annualized returns—far better than bank wealth management products—and helping you gain experience in the crypto market.
1. Bitcoin Dollar-Cost Averaging: The Simplest Way to Make Money in a Bear Market
The logic behind dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is remarkably simple: buy Bitcoin at fixed intervals and with a fixed amount each time. Buy more when prices fall and enjoy the gains when prices rise, navigating market fluctuations by "averaging down" your cost. This is a "magic weapon" for ordinary people to weather bear markets, and historical data has repeatedly validated its effectiveness.
From January 2018 to December 2020, investing $1,000 in BTC on the 1st of each month resulted in a total investment of $36,000 over three years. At its peak in November 2021, this investment grew to $360,000 – a 10-fold return. From January 2022 to October 2024, again investing $1,000 per month resulted in a total investment of $34,000. At its peak in October 2024, this investment was worth $102,000 – a 3-fold return.
Key practical advice, explained in 4 points:
Invest only in Bitcoin: BTC is the "stabilizing force" of the crypto market. Having weathered four bull and bear market cycles, it boasts unparalleled security and liquidity, making it more reliable than any altcoin.
Buy at a fixed time: For example, buy on the 1st of each month, regardless of whether the price goes up or down that day. In a bear market, prices generally trend downwards, and buying more as prices fall can actually lower your average cost, so there's no need to anxiously monitor the market.
Invest only with spare cash: Don't invest more than 10% of your monthly income – invest 1,000 if you earn 10,000 a month, and 5,000 if you earn 50,000. Absolutely avoid "rigid" expenses like mortgage payments and children's tuition.
Don't take profits in a bear market: wait for the bull market to sell! The signals are: BTC price increases exceeding 300%, or the Fear & Greed Index showing "Extreme Greed" for a week consecutively. Don't run away with small profits and waste the cyclical benefits.
2. Platform Investment: Earn returns even if you don't move your coins.
If you already own BTC or ETH and don't want to sell but are afraid of price drops, deposit them into mainstream platforms for investment – this provides stable returns while allowing you to hold your coins long-term, essentially "making money from money + making coins from coins." The returns on leading platforms are now transparent, so there's no need to guess.
platform
BTC Profits
ETH earnings
USDT earnings
Binance
Current account 5%-8%
Regular 30-day cycle, 10%-12%
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OKX
Flexible cash deposits: 4.5%-7%
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Regular 90-day cycle, 8%-10%
However, there are three pitfalls in platform-based wealth management; avoiding them is key to making a steady profit:
Choose only compliant, large platforms: Binance, OKX, Coinbase, and other top-tier platforms have strong financial backing and are compliant with regulations, unlike FTX which suddenly collapsed. In 2022, FTX collapsed; how many people lost their invested funds? Don't gamble on small platforms for a 1% higher return.
Avoid long-term products: Prices fluctuate greatly during a bear market; it's advisable to choose flexible deposits or short-term fixed deposits of 30 days or less. For example, if you buy a one-year ETH investment and ETH drops by 50% midway, you won't be able to sell and will be stuck with a loss.
Prioritize "crypto-based" products: If you are bullish on BTC and ETH in the long term, choose products where returns are settled in cryptocurrencies. For example, if you deposit 1 BTC with an annualized return of 6%, you will receive 1.06 BTC after one year. If BTC rises to 100,000 in the next bull market, your BTC will be worth 106,000, earning both investment returns and the price increase of the cryptocurrencies.
3. Take advantage of airdrops: Pick up "bear market bonuses" at zero cost
Airdrops are when project teams distribute tokens to users for free to attract new users—this is the only opportunity to "make money at zero cost" during a bear market. In the 2022 Arbitrum airdrop, some people received $100,000; in the 2023 Inscription airdrop, many people earned hundreds of thousands of dollars with zero cost.
My friend Lei Zi made 500,000 yuan during the 2022 bear market by participating in airdrops. His method was simple: spend two hours each day researching new DeFi projects, completing simple tasks like registration, wallet linking, and retweeting, and then wait to collect tokens. In 2022, he received 1,200 ARB tokens, worth $40,000 at the time; in 2023, he received another 300,000 yuan worth of tokens from the inscription airdrop.
The key to getting airdrops is "early participation and careful selection," which can be broken down into four steps:
Finding information: Keep a close eye on three channels—airdrop columns on leading crypto media outlets (3 Point Blockchain, TechFlow), airdrop aggregation platforms (Airdrop Alert, DappRadar), and project-specific Discord and Twitter accounts. Being early is crucial;
Screening projects: Prioritize those with "background" – Layer 2 projects invested in by Sequoia Capital and a16z, and supported by the Ethereum Foundation. The tokens of these projects are likely to have value and will not go to zero.
Complete tasks: Most tasks are simple, such as registering, linking your wallet, or retweeting. Some projects require a small investment (such as adding $100 in liquidity), and these airdrops often offer higher returns, so don't be afraid to spend a little money.
Sell promptly: Once the token is listed on an exchange, sell 50%-70% immediately after the opening to secure your initial investment (if you've already invested). Don't be greedy and try to sell at the highest point; in a bear market, it's common for airdropped tokens to drop in price immediately upon opening.
Aggressive Strategy: Experienced players earn over 10 times their initial investment through short selling and bottom-fishing.
This is suitable for investors with over 3 years of experience who can tolerate high risk. My seven-figure return this time was mainly achieved by shorting altcoins; experienced investors around me have also multiplied their money several times by buying the dip in mainstream coins. But remember: high returns always come with high risks, and discipline is more important than returns.
1. Shorting altcoins: My core money-making method
The logic for shorting is simple: the best thing to short in a bear market is worthless altcoins—they're hyped up in the bull market, and will inevitably crash in the bear market, even going to zero. This offers high returns with relatively controllable risk.
The key lies in "selecting the right target + controlling risk," with four practical steps:
Screening criteria: Use a "four-step screening method" to find altcoins that are bound to crash—fake team information, copied technology with no practical application, large-scale whale transfers of coins to exchanges, and hype in the community but with no real value. If it meets these four criteria, sell it blindly;
Tool selection: Prioritize shorting with perpetual contracts, as they have no expiration date and can be held long-term until the target price. Avoid contracts with delivery dates, as they require closing out upon expiration, and you might run into trouble if the target price isn't reached.
Control your leverage: Never use too much leverage! For cryptocurrencies with a high probability of going to zero, use 5-10x leverage; for those with some market capitalization but no real value, use 2-5x leverage. I know someone who used 50x leverage to short a certain altcoin, and was forced to liquidate when the price rose by 2%, losing 100,000 yuan in an instant.
Set stop-loss and take-profit levels: Set the take-profit point at "80%-90% drop," for example, if you shorted a coin at $0.5, close 50%-70% of your position when it drops to $0.1 to lock in profits; set a "trailing stop-loss" for the remaining position (e.g., automatically close the position when the price rebounds by 10%) to prevent profits from being given back. Set the stop-loss point at "20% increase," so you can cut your losses promptly if your judgment is wrong.
Tip: Open positions in batches. If you plan to short 10 coins, short 5 first, and then short the rest if the price drops; don't go all in, keep 30% of your funds as a reserve, so you can add to your position and lower your cost if the price rises in the short term.
2. Buying the dip in mainstream assets: the ultimate opportunity in a bear market.
Short selling offers "short-term windfall profits," while buying the dip in mainstream cryptocurrencies is the path to "long-term wealth." BTC and ETH at the bottom of a bear market are at rock-bottom prices, and they are bound to surge in the next bull market—history has proven that those who bought the dip in 2018 made 10 times their initial investment, and those who bought the dip in 2022 made 3.5 times their initial investment.
The key to bottom fishing is "finding the right bottom + buying in batches," and the strategy consists of four points:
Identifying bottom signals: The bottom has arrived when three signals appear simultaneously—BTC has fallen by more than 70% and its fluctuation is less than 10% for three consecutive months; the Fear & Greed Index has been below 10 for 20 consecutive days (extreme fear); mainstream media begins to predict a decline, with news reports claiming "Bitcoin will go to zero." In November 2022, all three signals were present, and BTC was at $15,500, which was the bottom.
Buy in batches, don't go all in: Divide your funds into 5-10 parts and buy at different price levels. For example, if BTC drops from 50,000 to 20,000, buy 10%; if it drops to 15,000, buy 20%; if it drops to 10,000, buy 30%; and wait for confirmation of the bottom before buying the rest. No one can buy at the absolute lowest point, so buying in batches helps to average down your cost.
Only invest in BTC and ETH: Allocate funds in a 7:3 ratio, with 70% in BTC (safe asset) and 30% in ETH (growth asset). Avoid altcoins; 90% of altcoins will go to zero in a bear market.
Long-term holding: After buying at the bottom, don't stare at the market every day for short-term trading; patiently hold until the next bull market. When to sell? When BTC rises by more than 300%, or when the market experiences another frenzy of "everyone trading crypto," then gradually take profits.
3. Buying Mining Machines at the Bottom: Long-Term Investment by Large Funds
If you have over a million in funds, buying mining rigs during a bear market is a good option. Mining rig prices are tied to Bitcoin (BTC). In a bear market, when BTC falls, mining rig prices also fall; in a bull market, when BTC rises, the demand for computing power is high, so mining rigs can both generate income through mining and be sold for profit.
During the 2018 bear market, the price of mining machines plummeted from 20,000 yuan to 2,000 yuan, a 90% drop; during the 2020 bull market, the price rose to 30,000 yuan, a 14-fold increase. During the 2022 bear market, the price of a mainstream mining machine plummeted from 15,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan, an 80% drop; during the 2024 bull market, the price rebounded to 12,000 yuan, a 3-fold increase.
The core is "cost calculation + ore beneficiation machine", specific suggestions:
Avoid these pitfalls: 90% of people lose money by falling into these 5 traps.
Bear markets offer more opportunities to make money, but they also have more traps. In 11 years, I've seen far too many people lose all their capital, and I've summarized five "death traps"—avoid these, and you'll beat 90% of people.
1. Trap One: Buying the dip in "plummeting worthless cryptocurrencies"
This is the most common pitfall: seeing a certain altcoin drop from $1 to $0.01, a 99% drop, one might think, "It's bottomed out, buy now and make a profit." But these worthless coins have no intrinsic value; after a 99% drop, they can drop another 99%, eventually going to zero.
In 2022, Luna plummeted from tens of dollars to $1, a drop of 98.5%. Some people bought at the bottom at $1, only to see it fall to $0.001, wiping out their entire investment. Similarly, Floki fell from $0.00003 to $0.000003 in 2022, a 90% drop; those who bought at the bottom haven't even broken even. Remember: low price ≠ value, and a large drop ≠ no further drops.
This year's hot stablecoins have made people forget that the decoupled stablecoins in the Luna coin portfolio are actually not stable either.
2. Trap Two: Using Excessive Leverage
Leverage is a "butcher's knife" in a bear market. Many people are eager to make money and add 20x or 50x leverage, only to be forced to liquidate their positions as soon as the price of the coin rebounds slightly, and their principal is wiped out instantly.
I know an investor who recently used 50x leverage to short a certain altcoin. After opening his position, the price rose by 2%, and he was immediately liquidated, losing his entire 100,000 yuan investment. This kind of thing happens every day—high leverage amplifies both returns and risks; if your judgment is wrong, there's no chance of recovery. My advice: Don't exceed 10x leverage in a bear market, and beginners shouldn't use it at all.
3. Trap Three: Believing in "insider information" and "trading recommendations"
In a bear market, people are anxious and easily fall for "experts." These "experts" often collude with market manipulators, calling for retail investors to buy in while they secretly unload their shares.
During the 2022 bear market, a self-proclaimed crypto guru touted a certain cryptocurrency in a social media group, claiming it would rebound tenfold. Thousands followed suit, only to see the price plummet by 90% instantly, and the "guru" had already sold off. This kind of tactic is rampant in bear markets. Remember: there are no insider tips in the crypto market; all these touts are designed to get you to buy at the top. Your decisions should be based solely on your own research.
4. Trap Four: Trading on Small Platforms
Small platforms are prone to "explosion" during bear markets—insufficient liquidity, broken capital chains, either preventing withdrawals or absconding with funds. How many people lost their money after FTX's collapse and bankruptcy in 2022? Before their collapse, these platforms all used "high-yield investments" and "low fees" to lure users.
Always trade only on top-tier, compliant platforms: Binance, OKX, and Coinbase. Don't go to smaller platforms for small savings; the safety of your principal is paramount.
5. Trap Five: Panic Selling at a Loss
The most terrifying thing about a bear market isn't the price drop itself, but the panic selling. Many people panic when they see BTC plummeting, selling at rock-bottom prices and missing out on the rebound.
The key to avoiding losses: invest with spare cash and build long-term awareness. Spare cash reduces stress, and long-term awareness lets you know that "the bear market will pass."
Mindset management: A more important "hidden competitive advantage" than strategy.
Finally, here's a harsh truth: in the crypto market, how much money you ultimately make doesn't depend on how many strategies you know, but on how stable your mindset is. In a bear market, fear, anxiety, and greed are amplified. Managing your mindset is key to survival and success.
1. Invest with spare money, don't gamble.
"Idle money" refers to money that you won't need for 3-5 years. Investing this kind of money means that even if prices fall, you won't be forced to sell at a loss because you have to pay rent or mortgages.
I've seen too many people borrow money to speculate on cryptocurrencies, even mortgaging their houses, only to collapse when prices plummet, ending up with nothing and debt. Investing with spare cash allows you to stay calm and make rational decisions during a bear market. Remember: the crypto market is high-risk; never gamble with your life savings.
2. Spend less time watching the market and more time improving yourself.
In a bear market, prices fall every day, and constantly monitoring the market can trap you in a cycle of "anxiety-panic-selling at a loss." Some people watch the market for 10 hours a day, panic when they see the price in the red, and end up losing everything through reckless trading.
My advice: For dollar-cost averaging, check the price once a week; for short selling and arbitrage, check it 2-3 times a day, for no more than 30 minutes each time. Use the time saved to learn about blockchain, research projects, spend time with family, or pursue a side hustle—a clear mind will help you identify opportunities more accurately.
Lao Liu only watches the stock market for 30 minutes each at 9 am, 3 pm, and 9 pm, and spends the rest of his time learning programming and raising fish. He said, "Watching the market frequently only makes me impulsive; keeping my distance allows me to be rational."
3. Establish trading discipline and reject wishful thinking.
My ironclad rules: ① Always set stop-loss and take-profit levels for every trade and never modify them; ② Never exceed 10% of your portfolio in a single instrument; ③ Never change your strategy on short notice; ④ Always review your trades after each trade. The lesson I learned in 2018—being stopped out by a large short position due to a market rally—has kept me disciplined ever since.
4. Reject the herd mentality and embrace solitude.
When BTC reached $18,000 in 2022, everyone around me was selling at a loss. I persisted with dollar-cost averaging based on signals from on-chain whale buying and a fear index of 8, ultimately achieving a 33% return. The method was: leave emotionally charged communities, establish my own judgment system, and make decisions based on data and logic.
The Bitcoin bear market may have just begun, while most altcoins are already heading into a deep bear market. Paying attention to#3Blockchain may not necessarily make you more money, but it can help you avoid pitfalls!