Introduction:

On November 14, Arete Capital partner McKenna released a major market outlook, giving a clear judgment on Bitcoin's trend: "short-term pressure, long-term bullish"—there is still significant room for a substantial short-term correction, with a maximum decline possibly reaching 31%; but looking at the long term, institutional accumulation and continuous capital inflow will drive prices to new highs in the coming years.

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Short-term risk warning:

Specifically looking at the short-term trend, McKenna pointed out the core risk signal—Bitcoin has fallen below the weekly 50-period moving average, and this technical breakdown may trigger further downward pressure. He further provided three major potential support ranges to offer clear references for investors:

  • $96,200: As a high transaction density area, market sentiment here is strongly supported; if it can hold, it is expected to alleviate short-term panic selling;

  • $93,300: It has both the attributes of "the opening price at the beginning of the year" and "the midpoint of the previous fluctuation range," making it a key support level from both technical and psychological perspectives;

  • The range of $86,000–$91,000: If the market experiences a complete downturn, reaching this range will correspond to a correction of about 31%, serving as a defensive line for extreme short-term market conditions.

Candlestick chart displaying Bitcoin price action over time with gray volume profile histogram on left, yellow line for 1W 50 SMA, multiple horizontal support and resistance lines in blue and red, point of control marked at 96.2K, range high at 108.4K, mid range at 93.3K, inefficiency zone between 91K and 86K, recent price breakdown below range high indicated by red arrow.

However, McKenna also mentioned that historical trends show Bitcoin has rebounded twice near $92,000, thus this price level is regarded as "a better entry point for phased investments," providing important reference for investors planning to layout positions.

A long-term bull market is to be expected:

Even with a short-term bearish outlook, McKenna still emphasizes that "a correction is an opportunity," clearly stating that he will view short-term adjustments as a window for increasing spot holdings. For the long-term market, he provided specific time and price targets:

  • 2025: It is highly likely that historical highs will not be refreshed, and the overall situation will be in a "power accumulation adjustment period";

  • The second half of 2026: Prices are expected to break through the $150,000 mark;

  • Before President Trump's term ends: a surge to the historical high of $200,000.

The three core driving forces supporting this long-term optimistic prediction are: first, the institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to rise, becoming a long-term capital "ballast"; second, the scale of Bitcoin ETF holdings is steadily increasing, bringing stable incremental capital to the market; third, 2026 will see a new round of cyclical capital inflows, further igniting market enthusiasm and pushing the market into an upward cycle.$BTC