#BTC #crypto2023 #ETH #Binance #Web3
Author: Spot holder Weibo: BeingLam Twitter: lam_being
Preface: This article is very important to you. It may be a prediction for you to make a lot of money in the next bull market. Please read it patiently. You will come back and thank me in 2 years.
Recently, the price of BTC has been breaking new highs. On March 18 (Beijing time), it rose to US$27,700, and the price hit a new high in the past eight months. Other altcoins also rose sharply. The rise in cryptocurrency market prices not only broke the silence of the market, but also attracted people to pay attention to the cryptocurrency market again.
Recently, many fans have asked me in private messages: Is the bear market over? Will BTC continue to fall? Can I buy spot now? When does the bull market probably start? Next time, what will be the highest price of BTC and ETH in the bull market? Will the next bull market be a super bull market? What altcoins are recommended to buy? Waiting for various questions.
Below I will take out the questions raised by fans one by one and express my own thoughts. I believe it will be of great help to everyone, especially those who like the spot, so be sure to read it carefully.
First of all, it is clear that the bear market is ending and now is the best time to buy spot. We need to know a concept: a bear market is a cycle, not a specific time, so if you buy cryptocurrency spot during this cycle, it will be very cheap. You can never buy when the price is the lowest, and even the main force cannot buy when the price is the lowest.
Why is it said that the bear market is ending now? Let’s analyze it from many aspects:
1: From a macro perspective, the end of the global epidemic, especially China's full opening up, and the restart and acceleration of the global economy will have a major positive role in promoting the global financial market.
2: The Federal Reserve is the big brother of the global financial market and has an unshakable influence on the global stock, gold, foreign exchange and cryptocurrency markets. According to the Federal Reserve's statement, the United States will stop raising interest rates from the second half of 2023 to early 2024. This is undoubtedly a huge benefit to the stock market and the cryptocurrency market. Many funds will return to the cryptocurrency market, which will push the price of Bitcoin up.
3: Judging from the halving time of various cryptocurrencies, starting from the second half of this year, various important cryptocurrencies will begin to halve one after another. In particular, the BTC halving has a considerable boost to the price of the cryptocurrency market. The main force usually buys in advance before the halving, because the price often rises after the halving, and the maximum profit can be obtained by buying in advance. The main force can wait for half a year or even a year, but most retail investors cannot do it. In this regard, the bear market is indeed ending.
4: From the perspective of market sentiment, many cryptocurrency project parties have recently announced their project plans and progress, retail investor sentiment has reached a small climax, and the prices of many altcoins have fluctuated greatly recently. Compared with the low price some time ago, Bitcoin has also increased significantly. The sharp rise and fall in currency prices is the performance before the end of the bear market. Just like a sleeping dragon, it stretches and yawns when it just wakes up. Another important benefit is that Hong Kong opened legal trading of personal cryptocurrency in June. Many people are seriously disappointed by this benefit. Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency market sentiment is already very high. The next round of super bull market should be driven by Chinese funds. of.
5: At present, major external negative news has basically been digested by the market. Important negative news such as the collapse of Luna, the thunderstorm of FTX, the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital, and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank have been digested by the market. There will be a lot of bad news in the future, but it will have little impact on the market. You must know that there will always be bad news, whether it is a bull market or a bear market, so the subsequent bad news is just to wash the market. After the bad news has been digested by the market, it is the time for the main players to buy. Currently, there are more and more signs that the main players are accelerating the purchase of low-priced BTC and ETH, which reflects from the side that the bear market is about to end.
Based on the above reasons, there is no doubt that the bear market is ending, and now is a good time to deploy spot. My idea is that there are no high-priced cryptocurrencies in the bear market, only timid users.
Next, let’s talk about when the bull market starts. The end of the bear market is the beginning of the bull market. There is no doubt that the BTC price in 2023 will most likely fluctuate back and forth between 25,000-40,000 US dollars, through slow rises and sharp falls. As retail investors' funds continue to be purged, many retail investors will be eliminated. The elimination will be almost completed by the end of the year, and steady growth will begin in 2025.
Many retail investors simply cannot resist the washout tactics of slow rise and sudden fall. For example, an altcoin rose from US$5 to US$50 in 3 months, but fell back to US$8 within a week. Many people would not accept it. The contract would basically be liquidated and the spot would be sold. Then it went up from $8 to $80. This is extremely torture for retail investors. So if you ask me when the bull market will start, I just want to say that it will start in the second half of the year, but it will be a turbulent period. The beginning of next year will be a relatively stable rising period, but by that time the price will already be relatively high.
Next, I will predict the prices of BTC, ETH, ADA, and DOGE in the next bull market
Before predicting prices, let’s first take a look at the total market value of cryptocurrency in previous years. From the total market value of cryptocurrency in 2013 to about US$1.5 billion, in 2021 it will be a total market value of US$3 trillion, which is an explosive growth. But it can also be seen that the growth multiple is decreasing. In 2017, there was an increase of 533 times compared to 2013. The surge during this period was mainly due to the fact that people did not recognize cryptocurrency in the early stage and it was not of reference. What we can really refer to is that from 2017 to 2021, the market value increased by about 3.75 times. It is conservatively estimated that if the total market value of cryptocurrency in 2024 only increases by 1 times compared to the total market value in 2021, then the total market value of cryptocurrency in the next bull market will be approximately US$6 trillion.
Okay, now we can predict the next round of BTC prices. In normal times, BTC’s market capitalization ratio is between 37% and 44%. Taking into account that during the bull market, altcoins diluted more market value. In the next bull market, Bitcoin’s market value is calculated as 35%, then: 35% If billion is divided by 2100, then the price of the next round of Bitcoin will be approximately US$100,000. Then we compare the price of ETH. The total market value of BTC is about 2.4 times the total market value of ETH. Therefore, it can be concluded that the total market value of ETH is 840 billion, and the current circulation is about 120 million US dollars. It can be roughly calculated that the price of the next bull market is about 7,000 US dollars. Taking into account the ETH audience problem, the final price is about 10,000 US dollars.
There are several ways to extrapolate the price of the next bull market:
BTC: $100,000
ETH: 8,000-12,000 USD, compromise: 10,000 USD
ADA: USD 5-6
BNB: 2000 USD
DOGE: 3-5 USD
SOL: USD 400-500
The above is just a very conservative prediction of mine, because the next round is a super bull market and the price may far exceed this estimate. Every time I estimate the price, someone always refutes me. For example, if Dogecoin rises to 3 US dollars and the market value is about 300 billion, he will say that it exceeds the market value of Ethereum, but he does not know that the market value of Ethereum will also If it rises, the overall market value will rise, not the rise of individual coins.
In every bull market, new coins will rise sharply, and these new coins will take away the market value of some old coins. This is an inevitable law of history.
Recommended currencies:
Large fund users: BNB, BTC, ETH
Small capital users: DOGE, CFX, SHIB, ADA, THETA, AGIX, ID
The above is for reference only
Well, let’s share it here today. If you are also a spot holder, you can like and share this article. Let us witness the next round of bull market and get rich together. Welcome to follow me!
