1. Trend Determination
1. Moving Average Structure:
‑ EMA12 104 549 > EMA21 103 955, but EMA73 105 607 is still in between, not forming a 'bullish arrangement' (12>21>73), and not forming a bearish arrangement, belonging to the initial stage of an 'entangled convergence' breakout.
2. Momentum: RSI 64.8 is in the bullish control zone, but has not entered overbought (>70).
3. Trend Strength: ADX 27.7 has stood above 25 for 6 consecutive candles, confirming that the trend has 'just started' rather than being at the end.
Conclusion: Direction = early bullish, Strength = moderately strong, Pattern = pullback confirmation phase after a convergence breakout.
2. Should an order be placed
It is recommended to go long on 'pullbacks', do not chase shorts; no short signals currently.
Reason:
- The price has surpassed all three EMAs, but is only 1.5% away from EMA12 (≈1.2×ATR), and has not yet overheated;
- The rising ADX indicates that the bulls have entered, waiting for a technical pullback to achieve a better risk-reward ratio.
3. Entry Range
Ideal Pullback Zone: 105,350 – 105,750
- Upper limit 105,750 ≈ EMA73 + $150 (previous resistance turned support)
- Lower limit 105,350 ≈ EMA12 – $200 (4H previous small breakout level)
Pending Order Strategy:
① Limit order at 105,650 for the first batch of 30% position
② Limit order at 105,350 for the second batch of 40% position
③ If it effectively breaks below 104,900 (EMA21), cancel the remaining orders and observe.
4. Risk Control and Profit-Loss Ratio
1. Stop Loss: 104,200 (≈ 1.1×ATR below the average entry price, coinciding with the December 15 low and EMA73).
Based on an average entry price of 105,500, the stop loss range is -1.2% (−$1,300).
2. Take Profit:
First target 109,800 (previous high 12-17 upper shadow + 0.5×ATR projection), reduce position by 50%;
Second target 113,500 (1:1 pole height measurement + daily chart R1 pivot), push remaining position to protection.
Overall R:R ≈ 1 : 2.3 (first target) ~ 1 : 3.8 (second target).
3. Position: Single trade risk ≤ 1.5% of account equity; leverage ≤ 3× (perpetual contract). Equivalent USDT for spot trading is sufficient.
5. Major Risk Factors
1. Macroeconomic: Next Wednesday (12-25) the US market will be closed, liquidity will drop sharply, and if the dot plot/core PCE exceeds expectations, it may trigger a dollar pulse.
2. On-chain: BTC exchange reserves have increased by +9.2k BTC in the past week, showing 'inflows' rather than 'outflows'; if it continues >15k/day, be wary of selling pressure.
3. Derivatives: The perpetual funding rate has risen to +0.045%/8h (annualized at 50%), excessive bullishness may trigger a bull squeeze.
4. Technical Divergence: If the 4H RSI again spikes above 70 and the price does not make a new high, it will form a top divergence; stop loss should be tightened to 105,000 in advance.
6. Execution Checklist
- Limit order at 105,650 for 30%, add 40% at 105,350, totaling 70% planned position
- Stop loss at 104,200, manually close all at market price after triggering, do not add positions
- Automatically close 50% at 109,800, move the remaining stop loss to 107,000
