Odaily Planet Daily reports that crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that despite Bitcoin bouncing back from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend still falls under a 'recovery after a drop' and has yet to confirm the start of a new bull market cycle.

He pointed out that from on-chain data, several key metrics have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom zones, including the 'loss supply ratio' and the 90-day UTXO related indicators, which still do not display sufficient cyclical bottom structures. Additionally, the 'Long-Term Holders Realized Supply' has not shown the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.

Additionally, the spot selling pressure indicator has not shown any clear signs of a 'capitulation sell-off', meaning that during this downtrend, typical market clearing has not yet occurred. Axel Adler Jr believes that before the on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressures improve in sync, the current rise is more likely a technical bounce rather than a trend reversal.

From a macro perspective, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has driven Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, inflationary pressures are rising again; consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain elevated, and real interest rates are rising in sync with inflation expectations, further suppressing valuations of risk assets.

He also mentioned that the leadership of the Federal Reserve is approaching a potential turnover phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even started to factor in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards 'higher rates for longer'. In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.

Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signals of recovery on the demand side. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market.