Silver is currently in a unique environment where industrial demand and financial hedging are intertwined. The supply and demand are persistently tight, with macro policies and geopolitical sentiments creating volatility. On the industrial side, demand for silver is growing rigidly in fields like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and electronics. We've seen a global supply deficit for six consecutive years, and exchange inventories are continuously depleting, leading to tighter physical liquidity. On the financial front, expectations around Fed policy, the strength of the dollar, and geopolitical risk sentiment are dominating capital flows. Silver's volatility is noticeably higher than gold, making it prone to sharp spikes and drops. In terms of price, after a massive surge in 2025, we expect silver to oscillate widely between $70 and $90 in 2026, with clear divergences between bulls and bears.
In the short term (1–3 months), silver is likely to maintain a high volatility range, trending bullish but with wild swings. Resistance is concentrated in the $85–90 range, while support is around $70–75. The expectation of Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and solid physical demand provide upward momentum. However, high prices are curbing industrial purchases, profit-taking from speculative funds, and overbought technicals are creating pullback pressure, resulting in a 'quick rise, sharp fall' volatility characteristic overall.
Looking at the long term (6–18 months), silver is clearly in a structural bull market trend, with price centers continually moving up. The main driver here is the global energy transition fueling long-term expansion in industrial silver demand, while supply is constrained due to its by-product nature, making it hard to ramp up quickly. There's a persistent supply-demand gap. Additionally, with weakened dollar confidence and increasing gold purchases by global central banks alongside heightened demand for safe-haven assets, silver—being both an industrial and financial asset—has ample room for valuation recovery. As the gold-silver ratio reverts to its historical mean, silver is likely to outperform gold, with a good chance of breaking previous highs and pushing into the $100+ range, albeit with significant corrections along the way, which won’t alter the overall upward trajectory.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.