From a macro perspective, even though interest rate cuts haven't landed yet, the market is still in a balance sheet expansion phase, so liquidity isn't lacking, and US stocks along with other risk assets still have funding support. In comparison, rate cuts are more of a 'nice-to-have' rather than a decisive factor. As long as the tech sector maintains its growth, overall risk appetite won't significantly weaken, and we shouldn't be overly pessimistic about a mid-term rebound in the crypto space. As we enter May, the market rhythm is gradually shifting bullish; being bearish requires more caution. The closer we get to the second half of the year, the more we need to stay patient and rational, with the long-term direction still leaning towards the bulls.
From a technical perspective, BTC is still operating within an upward channel on the daily chart, but it hasn't completed a solid breakout yet, so there remains some short-term trading opportunities. Key resistance to watch above is around 81.6K; if it can break through with volume and hold above, we could see a one-sided upward phase, with ETH and altcoins catching up. Conversely, if it struggles to break through, we need to be cautious of a pullback, initially looking at 78K for support, and if that breaks, then 72K as a crucial buy zone. Right now, it's more suitable to patiently wait for a directional choice rather than chasing trades frequently.
ETH is slightly weaker than BTC overall, and its movement is more dependent on the broader market. If BTC breaks through smoothly, ETH could start a catch-up rally, initially targeting the 2500-2600 range, with a further chance to hit 2800-3200. However, if BTC faces resistance and pulls back, ETH will likely amplify the drop, with initial support at 2280-2320; the more critical buying zone remains around 2000-2100.
Right now, the market's short-term key is whether BTC can complete its breakout. I recommend focusing on observation, going with the flow, and avoiding excessive speculation when the direction is unclear.
The trading during this period is quite typical—lots of action, but the outcome stands firm.
SOL's recent long position hasn't been smooth, but the mid-term logic remains intact since the strategy was proposed at the end of April, and the price action is progressing as expected. The hardest part in such markets is not determining the direction but rather 'holding on'. The same issue has already arisen with DOGE, and this time, executing the strategy well is the key.
The logic here is clearer: US stocks in AI and storage have already strengthened significantly, while the crypto space is obviously lagging behind, so getting positioned in the storage sector is the way to go. Currently, AR is taking the lead, and the key will be whether it can hold its core position. Once it stabilizes, there’s a chance for a bigger market move; similarly, FIL and STORJ in the same sector can be monitored as well.
The AI sector is still a key focus. TAO has already had its run, and I’m currently more bullish on VIRTUAL as a follow-up target. Projects with narratives and expectation gaps are better suited for mid-term positioning rather than short-term speculation. The main storyline is likely to revolve around 'AI + Web3', with an emphasis on filtering for projects that truly have a team, technology, and long-term potential.
PENGU is one of the few coins that has recently shown independent movement, breaking out of a long period of consolidation with strong performance. Those who positioned at lower levels have already seen decent gains. The key with such assets is still to hold patiently, rather than switching frequently.
CRV currently has a good synergy between volume and price, and the trend seems sustainable, but be aware that if this upward movement reverses, the drop could also happen quickly. So while participating, it’s essential to have profit-taking and risk management strategies in place.
To sum it up, this is not a phase for 'blinded heavy investing', but rather a stage for selecting sectors, controlling positions, and holding patiently. Real profits often come from the few opportunities that are correctly identified and held onto.
The crypto market is volatile; proceed with caution. This is just my personal view, not advice, only for sharing.