$BTC 🧭 What is more likely to happen now?
Given the above, these would be my estimated probabilities for the upcoming periods (hours to days) under the assumption that no major news changes everything:
Most likely scenario: moderate bearish
• Since the technical signal indicates weakness, it is more likely that the price will drop further before it rebounds significantly.
• It could test the nearby support (in USD frame) ~105,000 USD or ~104,000 as the next more reasonable "floor" before a significant rebound.
• If that support fails, it could drop further towards lower levels that are not yet well defined.
Alternative scenario: technical rebound
• As the RSI is in the "low" zone and the KDJ very low, a relief rebound (a correction of the drop) could occur in the short term.
• But for that rebound to be strong or lasting, it would need signs of strength: buying volume, breaking a local resistance, and a change in the downward slope.
My conclusion:
Most likely: additional drop before a strong rebound.
Less likely (but possible): immediate and strong rebound without a new drop.
(This is my own analysis, it is not any type of signal, remember to do your own research, good luck)
Given the above, these would be my estimated probabilities for the upcoming periods (hours to days) under the assumption that no major news changes everything:
Most likely scenario: moderate bearish
• Since the technical signal indicates weakness, it is more likely that the price will drop further before it rebounds significantly.
• It could test the nearby support (in USD frame) ~105,000 USD or ~104,000 as the next more reasonable "floor" before a significant rebound.
• If that support fails, it could drop further towards lower levels that are not yet well defined.
Alternative scenario: technical rebound
• As the RSI is in the "low" zone and the KDJ very low, a relief rebound (a correction of the drop) could occur in the short term.
• But for that rebound to be strong or lasting, it would need signs of strength: buying volume, breaking a local resistance, and a change in the downward slope.
My conclusion:
Most likely: additional drop before a strong rebound.
Less likely (but possible): immediate and strong rebound without a new drop.
(This is my own analysis, it is not any type of signal, remember to do your own research, good luck)