1. Trend determination
1. EMA structure: EMA12＜EMA21＜EMA73 and all three lines are synchronously declining, a typical bearish arrangement.
2. ADX 43＞25: Strong trend, non-oscillatory.
3. RSI 39.8: Just out of the 30 oversold zone, but still below 50, belonging to the 'weak rebound' range.
Conclusion: Main trend = bearish, secondary rebound has not yet reversed structure.
2. Whether to open a position
Direction: Short (following strong trend)
Reason:
- Price is below all short and medium-term EMAs, rebound lacking volume;
- ADX high, momentum not exhausted;
- Last week's high point around 108,900 nearly coincides with EMA73, forming a 'dynamic resistance.'
Risk: If 4H closes back above 108,200 (EMA73), the short structure fails, decisive cutting of positions is required.
III. Entry range (in batches)
1. Aggressive: 103,900～104,400 (current small-level rebound zone, 1/3 position)
2. Standard: 105,600～106,200 (EMA21 and last week's low pressure, 1/3 position)
3. Conservative: 107,500～108,200 (EMA73 + previous high supply zone, 1/3 position)
Total leverage ≤ 3×, for spot equal positions, fully use spot borrowing to short.
IV. Stop loss and take profit (based on 4H-ATR 1,634$, 1.5×ATR≈2,450$)
Stop loss: uniformly 108,950 (beyond EMA73 and above last week's high point, triggered by 4H closing price)
Risk ≈ 2,450～5,000$, corresponding position 3× leverage with principal 5%～8%, in line with fund management.
Take profit:
- T1: 100,300 (previous low liquidity zone, reduce position by 40%)
- T2: 97,000 (June VPOC low point, reduce position by another 30%)
- T3: 92,800 (weekly level 0.382 retracement, leave 30% tail position, move stop loss to cost)
RR is approximately 1 : 2.3 (based on an average cost of 106,000)
V. Key risk control
1. Macroeconomic events: US CPI / FOMC, massive single-day inflow into spot ETF, sudden regulatory negative news.
2. On-chain monitoring:
- Exchange net inflow > 15k BTC/24h, high probability of accelerated decline;
- Stablecoin minting volume (USDT+USDC) daily net increase > 1B$, beware of short covering.
3. Technical indicator failure signal:
- 4H closes above 108,200 + trading volume > 4-week average 1.5 times;
- RSI 4H breaks 55 and shows a bottom divergence.
Any occurrence triggers manual stop loss/reverse.
VI. Execution checklist (can be directly attached)
- Limit short: 103,900, 105,800, 107,600 each 1/3, GTC
- Stop loss: 108,950 market price all flat, OCO single
- Take profit: 100,300 (40%), 97,000 (30%), 92,800 (30%), trailing stop loss 1,200$
- Daily at 16:00 UTC, review ADX and EMA arrangement, if ADX drops below 25, consider exiting early.
