What kind of people can actually navigate Bitcoin in the crypto space?
There are only two types of people: those with vision and those with insight.
(1) People with vision can grasp the general direction of the future, and those with insight can seize the great opportunities of the present. In fact, it can be quite responsible.
I can only tell everyone: one can only rely on oneself, constantly trying and making mistakes, then taking various detours, and crossing the river by feeling the stones to get to where we are now.
(2) There are actually many ways to make money in the crypto space; some methods you may not agree with, but indeed some people can earn money. Yet, you have not seen.
His growth process was exactly the same as yours; without the solid foundation laid in the early years, he wouldn't have experienced that later period of explosive growth.
No success is ever accidental.
(3) If you want to make a stable profit, you must go through a bottleneck period of several years: half a year to learn the technology, a year to practice execution, and a year and a half to cultivate your mindset.
The most important thing is to minimize losses during periods of stagnation. If you're willing to invest time and effort, be good at summarizing, and have a good mentor, this will help.
With friends by your side, life in the cryptocurrency world becomes much simpler.
In the course of this process, I have distilled 10 golden rules, which are concise yet profound.
If you intend to work in the cryptocurrency industry long-term, this article will definitely benefit you greatly, and you may even feel enlightened after reading it!
1. The key to successful cryptocurrency trading lies in carefully selecting strong cryptocurrencies and following upward trends. We should ignore cryptocurrencies in a downward trend, as time is precious and it's unwise to fight against major players. If a cryptocurrency remains firmly above its trend line, patiently holding it is the best strategy. For example, during the AI boom at the beginning of the year, as long as it didn't break the 30-day moving average, we could hold our positions with peace of mind; once it did break below, we should exit decisively.
2. The main trend is the guiding principle. When the market is performing well, there will inevitably be a leading trend. If the main trend is weak or absent, it means that the risks outweigh the opportunities. At this time, it is advisable to observe the situation calmly and wait for the main trend to emerge, and avoid making any rash moves.
3. Diversify your investments, and this applies to cryptocurrency trading as well. Even if you are very bullish on a particular cryptocurrency, you should not bet all your money on it. Learn to diversify your portfolio, and you should not hold more than four different cryptocurrencies to mitigate risk.
4. Frequent trading is not only unhelpful but also financially detrimental. When trading cryptocurrencies, avoid being unable to resist the urge to trade, and don't become restless if you don't trade for a day. While frequent trading may bring temporary pleasure, it will ultimately lead to heavy losses, with the only beneficiary being the brokerage firm. If you lack the ability to trade quickly and frequently, do not attempt to become a market manipulator.
5. After a significant loss, a period of rest is necessary; after a significant gain, even greater caution is required. After a large loss, one's mindset is easily affected. It's crucial to understand the psychology behind retaliatory trading and avoid blindly trying to recoup losses—this is a gambler's mentality and should be avoided. After a large gain, emotions run high, making it easy to lose caution. Therefore, large gains are often followed by large losses; constant vigilance is essential.
6. Diversify your portfolio and prioritize stability. Even if you are very bullish on a particular cryptocurrency, never buy a large amount at once. Even if it proves correct later, do not act this way. Things are unpredictable, and no one can foresee tomorrow.
7. Don't focus too much on intraday charts. Retail investors should avoid staring at intraday charts all day long, as this is not only unhelpful but can also disrupt their trading mindset. Cryptocurrency trading also requires a balance between work and rest; one hour of reviewing the market each day is sufficient.
8. Careful pre-market deliberation is better than impulsive decisions during trading. In cryptocurrency trading, make bold assumptions, but carefully verify them. Through post-market review and pre-market planning, identify market hotspots and make predictions for trading. However, remember that prediction is not forecasting; blindly predicting is substituting subjective judgment for market selection, which is a major taboo in trading.
9. Missing an opportunity is better than incurring a loss. In trading, opportunities will always come again. Rationally analyze the situation, neutralize the problem, and focus on the potential for success, not the pressure.
10. Improving trading skills and keeping a trading log are crucial. Recording all relevant trading information and experience is essential; without a log, valuable experience will be lost, and repeating the same mistakes is inevitable. A trading log is a powerful tool for capital and risk management. Understanding trading problems is key to solving them. Therefore, making a trading log one of your goals is essential.
There's a very simple method for trading cryptocurrency that almost guarantees a 100% profit. I made over 20 million using this method!
Trend-following: Go with the major trend, go against the minor trend.
Identifying trends is paramount: use weekly and monthly charts to determine long-term trends (e.g., an upward-sloping 20-week moving average indicates a bull market, while a downward-sloping one indicates a bear market), and daily and 4-hour charts to determine medium-term trends. In range-bound markets (e.g., sideways consolidation), buy low and sell high; in trending markets (e.g., breaking through key resistance levels), aggressively buy on dips and sell on rallies. Livermore's famous quote, "The trend is your friend," emphasizes that once a trend is confirmed, ignore short-term fluctuations and hold your position until the trend reverses (e.g., a break below the 20-week moving average).
Breakout and Reversal Signals: A gap up/gap down after a long period of sideways trading (e.g., breaking through the previous high/low) is a strong trend signal, and you should decisively follow the trend (e.g., buy at the market price after the gap up). Conversely, do not short near the upper limit up or long near the lower limit down to avoid "catching a falling knife." For example, if a stock that has been sideways for half a year suddenly gaps up at the open, it often indicates the start of a major market move, and chasing the rise at this time has a very high success rate.
Money Management: Survival First, Compound Interest is King
Position control is crucial: each trade should not exceed 30% of your capital, and the loss on a single trade should be ≤3% (e.g., with a principal of 100,000, the stop-loss for a single trade should be ≤3,000). Keep at least 50% of your funds idle for adding to positions during key market movements (e.g., adding to positions after trend confirmation and floating profits). Tony suggests using only 1/10 of your spot capital for futures; for example, with 300,000 in spot trading, limit futures to a maximum of 30,000 to avoid the risk of liquidation.
Rollover strategy: Adding to winning positions to amplify profits: Use only in three situations:
① Breakout from a long period of sideways consolidation;
② Buy the dip during a bull market crash;
③ Breakthrough of weekly resistance level.
The method is "positive pyramid averaging," which means starting with a small position (e.g., 10%) and gradually increasing the position after making a profit (5%-10% each time), with each additional position having an independent stop loss (e.g., 2% below the cost price).
For example, if Bitcoin rises from 10,000 to 11,000, you can add 10% to your position and set a stop-loss at 10,800 to both protect your profits and maximize your gains.
These things seem simple, but 90% of people fail because of poor execution. If you can control your impulses, making money is just a matter of time. When I finally grasped this, my account balance skyrocketed. Now it's your turn.
Eight key words in the cryptocurrency world: The market is the best teacher. Nine key words in the cryptocurrency world: Rationality, knowing when to enter and exit, and strategy. Ten key words in the cryptocurrency world: Good mindset, decisiveness, and continuous learning. Adhere to these ten principles in cryptocurrency trading; you will surely reap great rewards.
The cryptocurrency world is not a shortcut to instant wealth, but a brutal arena where only a few survive.
First, understand the market: This is a world where uncertainty reigns supreme.
The essence of the market is not a technological game, but a highly complex game of probability.
You must accept that even the most sophisticated strategies cannot guarantee consistent profits in all environments. Any trading system claiming a "100% win rate" is a scam.
What we can do is not to beat the market, but to adapt to it and use discipline to combat uncertainty.
Profit and loss share the same origin: how you make money determines the depth of your losses. Heavy leverage (all-in): could double your money, or wipe you out. High leverage (trying to catch a rebound): you might get a small profit, but one wrong move can wipe you out. Average down (averaging down): sometimes you can recover, but in a one-sided trend, it's a slow suicide.
The traders who truly survive are those who systematically bet on their "probabilistic advantage"—making more money when they're right and losing less when they're wrong.
Second, recognize yourself again: You are not a genius, much less Liang Xi.
Most people in the market don't die from ignorance, but from overconfidence: obsession with prediction; trying to catch every top and bottom; technical obsession; piling on indicators while neglecting position sizing and risk management; blind faith in luck; attributing profits to themselves and blaming losses on the market; overconfidence; believing they are invincible after a few consecutive profitable trades.
Please remember: Discipline > Technique, Execution > Inspiration, Stability > Stimulation.
The most profitable trades are often the most boring.
III. The Underlying Logic of Ordinary People Making Money
You don't need to be a genius; you just need to build a trading system that can be replicated and maintained.
1) Money Management: Use only a small portion of your total capital for each position. Test the waters with a small position and add to your position only after confirming the trend. Don't go all in with a large position right away. Keep your total position size below 30% to allow for flexibility.
2) Suitable timeframes: Short-term trading: Suitable for those with strong market intuition and quick reflexes; Swing trading: Suitable for those who can withstand fluctuations and profit from trends; Long-term trading: Those who understand macroeconomics and fundamentals have a better chance of success.
3) The trading system should be simple, executable, and replicable. Trend strategy: Trade with the trend, don't add to positions against it. Range-bound strategy: Buy low and sell high, stop loss quickly. Arbitrage strategy: Cross-platform spread arbitrage, small fluctuation arbitrage, high win rate but...
4) Stop-loss and take-profit orders must be executed mechanically. The stop-loss line should be set before entering the market. When the stop-loss is reached, the position can be closed out in batches. Don't be greedy or timid; just focus on capturing the mid-range market movements.
5) Emotional management: Reduce screen time, avoid impulsive trading, accept losses, don't add to losses, don't get overconfident when you win, keep a trading log, and continuously review and optimize your system. IV. The key to truly surviving: mindset and compound interest.
The hardest thing to beat in the market isn't the market itself, but rather one's own greed and fear.
What you need to achieve is not "ten times the return in a year," but rather a stable annualized return + strict stop-loss + avoiding being wiped out of the market.
Don't underestimate the importance of "survival." Compound interest is the only way for retail investors to compete with institutional investors: a 30% annualized return is 20 times in 10 years; a 50% annualized return is 57 times in 10 years. Doubling your money in one year, only to be wiped out in the second year, results in zero.
And if you accidentally lose money--
Final advice: Don't become a "legend," become a "survivor."
In the cryptocurrency world, legendary stories belong to only a very few people. The vast majority of winners are ordinary people who can survive in the long market.
Make fewer mistakes, execute more, review frequently, and remain rational and patient.
The market is always changing, but the rules remain the same. Your only goal is to survive this fierce competition. If you feel lost, consider saving this article as the starting point for your trading journey. It's not about getting rich quick, but about staying active at the poker table.
1. If your coin only drops slightly during a market crash, it indicates that a major player is protecting the market and preventing further decline. Such coins are safe to hold, as they are likely to yield future profits.
2. For beginners buying and selling cryptocurrencies, there is a simple and direct method: for short-term trading, look at the 5-day moving average. As long as the price is above the 5-day moving average, hold the coin; if it falls below, sell. For medium-term trading, look at the 20-day moving average. If the price is above the 20-day moving average, hold the coin; if it falls below, sell.
The best method is the one that suits you best; the key is to stick to it.
3. If a major upward trend has formed in the cryptocurrency market and there is no significant increase in trading volume, then buy decisively. Continue holding if the price rises with increasing volume, and also hold if the price falls with decreasing volume but the trend remains intact; however, if the price falls with increasing volume and breaks the trend, then quickly reduce your position.
If the price of a coin doesn't move within three days after a short-term purchase, sell it if you can.
If the price of the coin drops after purchase, a stop-loss order will be placed unconditionally if the loss reaches 5%.
5. If a coin drops 50% from its high and continues to fall for 8 consecutive days, it indicates that it has entered an oversold state, and a rebound may occur at any time. You may consider following up.
6. When trading cryptocurrencies, choose leading coins because they rise the most sharply and are the most resilient when prices fall. Don't buy just because the price has dropped a lot, and don't refrain from buying just because the price has risen a lot. The most important thing when trading leading coins is to buy at a high price and sell at an even higher price.
7. Trade with the trend. The lowest possible price isn't always better; the more suitable the price, the better. Don't try to predict the bottom during a downtrend, and abandon underperforming coins. The trend is the most important factor.
8. Don't let temporary gains cloud your judgment; remember that sustained profits are key.
That's the hardest part. You need to carefully review your performance to see if your gains were due to luck or skill. Establishing a stable and suitable trading system is the key to sustained success.
9. Don't force trades without sufficient confidence. Holding cash is also a strategy, and learning to do so is crucial. When trading, the primary consideration should be preserving capital, not making a profit. Trading is not about frequency, but about success rate.
The Ironclad Rules of Cryptocurrency Trading:
First, never rush into situations that are complex and unclear to yourself. Always pick the easy targets; the same applies to cryptocurrency trading.
Secondly, never invest all your money in the same cryptocurrency at once, even if you are very bullish on it and you are proven right. Because market conditions can change rapidly, and no one knows what tomorrow will bring.
Third, if you mistakenly bought a cryptocurrency that is in a downward trend, you must sell it immediately to avoid further losses.
Fourth, if the cryptocurrency you bought hasn't lost money yet, but has already entered a downward trend, you should also exit the market and observe from the sidelines.
Fifth, it's advisable to pay less attention to cryptocurrencies that aren't on an upward trend. Regardless of their future performance, don't follow the big players as they accumulate positions. Retail investors don't have time to waste with them.
Sixth, don't fantasize about making money and constantly engage in short-term trading, buying and selling every day. Frequent trading might give you a thrill, but it will cause you to lose a lot of money. The only beneficiary is the exchange, and you don't have the skill level for that kind of trading.
You're not a market maker. Don't buy too many cryptocurrencies, preferably no more than 10; you don't have the energy to watch them all. It's like wanting to marry five wives—even if you're physically strong enough, you can't satisfy them all. The story of Wei Xiaobao only exists in novels.
Seventh, the fact that this coin is cheap and has dropped a lot is not a reason for you to buy it, never! It could become even cheaper!
Eighth, the fact that this is already very expensive and has risen significantly is not a reason for you to refuse to buy or sell. It could rise even higher!!
When you first enter the market, do you always feel that you can't make a profit and losses keep coming?
For beginners entering the cryptocurrency world, it might feel like profits are always out of reach, while losses seem to follow one after another.
Every experienced investor was once a novice investor, learning from their losses and growing stronger. The key is to learn from those losses and avoid repeating them. Today, I'll share my own profound reflections on losses, discussing the most common reasons for losses among novice users and offering practical solutions.
This directly addresses the three major pitfalls that cause losses for beginners:
1. Trading System + Lack of Discipline: Unable to control one's impulses, buying and selling indiscriminately, too many "temptations" outside the system. 2. Insufficient Stop-Loss Execution: Knowing that stop-loss orders should be placed, but always clinging to wishful thinking, ultimately turning small losses into large ones. 3. Emotional Trading: Unwilling to accept losses, engaging in revenge trading, resulting in even greater losses.
Many beginners will likely have experienced these three points firsthand. Next, I will analyze these points in more depth, drawing on my years of practical experience, and provide specific tips on avoiding common pitfalls.
Trading System Discipline: Don't make trades that are unpredictable.
Many newcomers to the cryptocurrency world wander aimlessly like headless flies. They rush in based on rumors of a stock about to skyrocket; they follow the trend out of envy when others make big money buying "Dogcoin"; and some even trade based on gut feeling or luck. This kind of "whimsical" trading style might bring short-term windfall gains, but in the long run, it's destined to result in more losses than gains.
Block out external noise and focus on opportunities within the system:
The cryptocurrency market is flooded with information, from various communities and KOLs. Newcomers are easily swayed by "insider information" and "get-rich-quick" stories, which can shake their trading systems. It's crucial to learn to filter out this noise and minimize unnecessary distractions. Focus your energy on researching and identifying opportunities that align with your trading system, and patiently wait for your "prey."
Stop-loss execution: A crucial "safety gauge"
In a highly volatile market like cryptocurrency, the importance of stop-loss orders cannot be overstated. A stop-loss order is like a car's airbag; you might not use it normally, but in the event of a collision (violent market fluctuations), it can save your life and prevent significant losses.
Many beginners still find it difficult to decisively cut losses in actual trading, mainly due to the following psychological barriers:
Reluctance to accept losses: Human nature naturally abhors losses. Stop-loss means admitting a misjudgment and accepting the loss, which is psychologically difficult to accept.
Wishful thinking: The constant belief that prices will rebound and that waiting a little longer might bring a recovery. This wishful thinking leads you to repeatedly delay cutting your losses, eventually turning small losses into large ones, or even causing your account to be wiped out.
Solution: Overcome psychological barriers and mechanically implement stop-loss orders!
1. Set a stop-loss level and clearly record it in the trading plan:
Stop-loss orders are not spur-of-the-moment decisions, but rather pre-set in the trading plan. Before opening a position, you should clearly set the stop-loss level based on your trading system and risk tolerance, and record it in your trading plan.
2. Execute stop-loss orders mechanically, like a robot, without letting emotions cloud your judgment:
Once the price hits the stop-loss level, execute the stop-loss without hesitation, like a robot. Don't make excuses, don't harbor any illusions, and don't interfere manually. Remember, the stop-loss is to protect your capital, avoid greater losses, and leave room for future profit opportunities.
3. Use tools to assist in stop-loss:
You can use the stop-loss function of the trading platform to set stop-loss orders in advance. Alternatively, you can set an alarm on your phone to remind you near key stop-loss levels.
4. Review stop-loss actions to positively reinforce stop-loss behavior:
After each stop-loss, don't be discouraged. Instead, review the situation and analyze whether the stop-loss was reasonable and whether it was executed properly. Summarize the lessons learned.
Emotional Management: Taming the "Wild Horse of Emotions"
The cryptocurrency market operates 24/7 with wildly fluctuating prices, making it easy for investors to experience emotional swings. This is especially true during periods of consecutive losses, which can easily lead to emotional reactions and irrational trading decisions. Many people know that revenge trading is wrong, but when emotions run high after losses, they still struggle to control themselves, resulting in even greater losses.
1. Don't get carried away with trending cryptocurrencies. Once you've made a certain amount of profit on an altcoin, you need to switch to another one. Trying to profit from the beginning to the end will inevitably lead to nothing. The reason is simple: altcoins can't rise forever. Once you've hyped them up, you need to switch, otherwise they'll fall back to their original point, and you'll have wasted your time. For example, FIL LUNA back then.
2. High-level consolidation followed by a surge: A new low after low-level consolidation often presents a good selling opportunity. When the price consolidates at a high level and then surges again, be wary of a potential bull trap; reduce your position or exit the market without hesitation. Conversely, when the price consolidates at a low level and then surges again before quickly recovering, it's likely the final shakeout by major players; remain steadfast in this situation.
3. When the market environment is unfavorable, if the price moves sideways against the trend, it will rise; a small rise against the trend will lead to a large rise. When the market environment is favorable, if the price moves sideways against the trend, it will fall slightly; a small fall against the trend will lead to a large fall.
4. Only add to winning positions, don't spread losses. This might break the minds of many investors. Our position should be increased when the price breaks through the previous high, not when it keeps falling. Adding to your position will only lead to more losses and eventually make you unable to move. You must cut your losses and let your profits run.
5. Once you've identified the bottom price, the price will generally rise in a pattern of two steps forward and one step back. Don't doubt it at this point; a big surprise is usually coming, especially when the trend is upward, as there will be periods of price increases followed by periods of consolidation. Don't sell your shares hastily.
6. Top-tier traders first look at the sector; second-tier traders only look at individual coins; third-tier traders look at indicators; and bottom-tier traders just gamble. This means that when buying a coin, you should first look at the sector. Only by focusing on trending sectors will you attract more attention and increase your chances of winning. Secondly, you should look at the token itself. Those who only look at indicators are beginners; those who look at everything are gamblers.
7. Indicators change with volume and price, so volume and price are the foundation of indicators. Relying on indicators without considering volume and price will lead to trouble in cryptocurrency trading. Indicators are calculated based on coin price and trading volume, so true technical analysis requires looking at both volume and price. Price increases require significant capital inflows.
8. In an uptrend, watch for support levels; in a downtrend, watch for resistance levels. When the price is rising, trading near support lines has a high success rate, offering opportunities to buy on dips. Conversely, in a downtrend, trading near resistance lines has a high success rate, providing opportunities to short or exit positions.
