XRP is hovering around $1.40 at the end of April 2026. Traders are eyeing a daily cup and handle pattern targeting $1.70. However, sharp warnings from on-chain analysis could halt the breakout. What's the latest price prediction for XRP in May 2026?

The token has been moving sideways since February 2026. However, declining volumes and a slow turn in the weekly MACD suggest a bigger move is approaching at the start of May.

The rising NVT ratio signals an overheated XRP network.

The NVT indicator for XRP jumped to 1,076 on April 29. This is the highest level since October 2025. Previous spikes during this period mostly did not exceed the 700 level.

It's worth noting that a high reading of the NVT indicator means that prices are rising faster than real network activity. Historically, such extremes have led to short-term price corrections, as the rise was not accompanied by adequate trading volume.

Meanwhile, exchange inflows and the number of whale transactions above $100,000 have remained stable since February 2026. No new spikes have appeared in Santiment data, reflecting the structural concerns outlined in the previous BeInCrypto publication.

For the bearish signal to disappear, the NVT indicator should drop below 300, and the daily trading volume must increase.

Despite warnings from on-chain analysis, the weekly chart for XRP/USDT shows that the token is defending the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $1.17. The price has stabilized in the range of $1.30–$1.45 since February, forming a consolidation zone.

The volume on the weekly candlestick chart is still shrinking. This is a classic sign of compression before an expansion move. However, the relative strength index is slowly rising, but remains below the sloping downtrend line from the peaks of December 2025.

At the same time, the MACD indicator on the weekly chart has appeared with three green bars and is approaching a bullish signal. A weekly close above $1.50 would open the way to the next key resistance. Such a breakout could drive the price towards the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.70.

Price forecast for XRP in May 2026: $1.70 is within reach.

The daily chart for XRP shows a classic cup and handle pattern. The target is set near $1.70, above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $1.61. The price is trading around $1.40, which is within the handle, with support at $1.30 and resistance at $1.50 – both levels have been significant since February.

Currently, the daily MACD and RSI indicators are close to neutral levels, and the volume continues to decline. Historically, such a situation has preceded a decisive breakout rather than further consolidation – reflecting the compression pattern from April's outlook.

If there is a clean daily close above $1.50, then the price could rise by about 16% towards $1.70. Conversely, a drop below $1.30 would invalidate the pattern and open the way to the next support at $1.17.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is holding a roundtable on the CLARITY Act on May 3. This could be a key macro factor that resolves the current impasse. Inflows into the XRP ETF reached $75 million in April.

May 2026 will decide whether XRP will start a new rally or retest the 0.786 Fibonacci level as support.