Currently, BTC is around $76,200 to $76,300, with an intraday high of $78,221 and a low of $76,138. So, it's not that there was no rebound; rather, it faced selling pressure as it approached the $78K to $80K resistance zone.

First off, BTC spot ETF funds are starting to get conservative.

The reason BTC was able to hold high for a while was largely due to the continuous inflow from ETFs providing capital support. But the latest news shows a net outflow of about $263 million from the US spot BTC ETF, interrupting the previous streak of inflows. This kind of capital shift will make short-term traders pull back.

Secondly, the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting results.

The Fed's official calendar shows the FOMC meeting will be from 4/28～4/29. Before such major events, funds usually don’t want to max out their leverage, especially with BTC near the pressure zone; a drop here could easily be amplified.

Thirdly, 80K has always been a psychological resistance zone.

When BTC nears 78K～80K, short-term capital tends to take profits easily. It doesn’t mean the bulls are done; this level just isn’t suitable for mindless buying.

So, right now, I see BTC as:

The news has made funds cautious, and technically, we hit resistance just right; the combination of both led to this pullback.

Next, I’ll be watching three levels:

76,000～76,200
This is the short-term support we're currently testing. As long as we hold here, BTC still has a chance to bounce back to 76,800～77,200.

75,500～75,800
If 76K doesn't hold, this area will be the next line of defense. If we break below here, we can't treat it as just a regular pullback anymore.

77,800～78,200
For BTC to regain strength, it needs to reclaim at least this range. Otherwise, any bounce could easily turn into a weak one, getting sold off again.

So, I won't chase trades blindly right now.

If I want to long, I’ll wait for a sign of a bottom near 75,800～76,100, or I’ll look to see BTC reclaim 76,800～77,000 first.

If I want to short, I won't chase it around 76K; instead, I’ll wait for a bounce to 77,200～77,800 that can’t hold before looking for shorting opportunities.

To put it simply, BTC isn't crashing directly now; it feels like the market is waiting for news to settle.

If 76K holds, there’s a chance for a bounce.

If it breaks below 75,500, the pullback will deepen.

Only if we reclaim 78,200 can we think about challenging 80K again.

In this market, the worst thing is to short at the first dip and long at the first bounce, ending up getting tossed around by the market.

Right now, it's not about who can click faster, but who can hold their position.