From a macro perspective.. The conclusion has been reached in today's meeting.. This wave of new measures has been canceled, and various previous pauses have been lifted..
But why did gold rise and crypto fall after the conclusion was reached.. I don't understand how the market thinks..
The interest rate cut in December can be understood as prices following the expectation of the December rate cut.. After Powell's speech yesterday, expectations dropped to the range of 50%~60%.. Now it has risen to 70%.. However, compared to the previous expectation of 90+, it is a decline, so prices are also following the narrative downward.
At this point, my personal view remains unchanged.. The U.S. job market cannot turn around that quickly.. Once the standstill ends, when the first wave of data comes out, if the employment data is poor, the probability of a December rate cut will continue to soar back, and hopefully, prices will rebound..
At least Trump is on the side of rate cuts.. So even if the narrative of decreasing rate cut probabilities leads to lower prices.. It still maintains the expectation that rate cut probabilities will rebound later, and prices will follow suit.
So in terms of operations, prices will still slowly move down, gradually preparing for a medium to long-term long position, slowly adding to the rhythm of 10.11 needle tip..
Previously, not fully committing at 1050 has always left the possibility of returning to the 10.11 needle tip expectation..
#BTC $BTC
But why did gold rise and crypto fall after the conclusion was reached.. I don't understand how the market thinks..
The interest rate cut in December can be understood as prices following the expectation of the December rate cut.. After Powell's speech yesterday, expectations dropped to the range of 50%~60%.. Now it has risen to 70%.. However, compared to the previous expectation of 90+, it is a decline, so prices are also following the narrative downward.
At this point, my personal view remains unchanged.. The U.S. job market cannot turn around that quickly.. Once the standstill ends, when the first wave of data comes out, if the employment data is poor, the probability of a December rate cut will continue to soar back, and hopefully, prices will rebound..
At least Trump is on the side of rate cuts.. So even if the narrative of decreasing rate cut probabilities leads to lower prices.. It still maintains the expectation that rate cut probabilities will rebound later, and prices will follow suit.
So in terms of operations, prices will still slowly move down, gradually preparing for a medium to long-term long position, slowly adding to the rhythm of 10.11 needle tip..
Previously, not fully committing at 1050 has always left the possibility of returning to the 10.11 needle tip expectation..
#BTC $BTC