In a volatile crypto market, who is buying against the trend?

Author | jk, Odaily Planet Daily
Introduction: Who is laying the groundwork for the next bull market?
The crypto bull market from 2024 to 2025 is essentially an institutional narrative. What will push Bitcoin past $100,000 won’t be the retail FOMO but rather the ETF net inflows following BlackRock's IBIT launch and the ongoing bond financing for crypto purchases. The underlying logic of that bull run hinges on the accumulation quietly completed by institutions during the bear market of 2022 to 2023.
History seems to be repeating itself, but the details are entirely different. In Q1 2026, Bitcoin pulled back over 25% from its peak, with Ethereum suffering even deeper losses, and market sentiment turned cold again. However, against this backdrop, a group of institutions is moving in the opposite direction of price trends: corporate treasuries are stacking up, sovereign wealth funds are increasing their positions, bank ETFs are launching, and traditional European financial institutions are entering the stablecoin space. All of this points to one question: if the next big market move will still be driven by institutional funds, who is buying during this bear market accumulation phase?
Odaily reporters conducted an in-depth study of capital inflows in the crypto market for Q1.
To conclude: even though the market experienced a brutal correction in Q1, institutional capital continued to flow into the crypto market. Bitcoin dropped over 25% from about $88,000 to the mid-$60,000s, while Ethereum fell even deeper by 35%. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings by over $10 billion, and institutions like the sovereign wealth fund Mubadala also seized the opportunity to add to their positions. At the same time, about 26 single-asset crypto ETFs completed issuance or submitted applications under the new general listing rules of the SEC in the US.
In Q1 2026, funds deployed for purchases showed a clear divide: some hedge funds significantly reduced their holdings (Brevan Howard cut its IBIT holdings by 85%), while corporate treasuries, university funds, ETF issuers, and the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund seized the opportunity to bottom fish. In venture capital, despite the number of transactions plummeting by 49%, quarterly financing totals remained around $5 billion to $6.8 billion, with three transactions (BVNK, Kalshi, Polymarket) accounting for half of the total. Regarding external factors, the SEC's new rules in September 2025 compressed the ETF approval cycle from 240 days to 75 days; on March 17, 2026, the SEC and CFTC jointly announced that staking rewards would be classified as non-securities, thus initiating a wave of intense ETF issuances.
Part One: Active Institutional Buyers and Capital Deployment
New crypto ETFs launched (January to April 2026)
A high volume of new crypto ETF products was launched this quarter. Bitwise launched the Chainlink ETF (CLNK) on January 14 on the NYSE Arca, with seed funding of $2.5 million. Canary Capital launched two products on January 13: a Litecoin spot ETF (LTCC, with cumulative AUM of about $9.7 million, being the first spot LTC product in the US) and an HBAR ETF (the first spot Hedera product in the US); the company later introduced a staking SUI ETF in February. Grayscale also launched a SUI staking ETF in February. 21Shares launched a SUI ETF (TSUI, with AUM of about $12.5 million) on NASDAQ on February 24 and launched a Polkadot ETF (TDOT, with a fee of 0.30%, being the first spot DOT product in the US, with about $11 million AUM in the first week) on March 6.
Old money has also rolled out some ETFs. BlackRock launched the iShares Ethereum Staking Trust (ETHB) on March 12, becoming the first mainstream institutional ETH staking ETF, with about 82% of staking rewards directly distributed to holders. Morgan Stanley introduced the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) on April 8, marking the first bank-affiliated spot BTC ETF in the US, with a fee of 0.14%, attracting $34 million on its first day and reaching a total size of $133 million eight days after launch. Additionally, ProShares launched the CoinDesk 20 Crypto Index ETF (KRYP) between January and February, listed on the NYSE Arca; NEOS launched the Enhanced Bitcoin High Yield ETF (XBCI) around January 29; Bitwise introduced the Proficio Currency Depreciation ETF (BPRO, a BTC and precious metals combo); Nomura/Laser Digital launched the Bitcoin Diversified Yield Fund (BDYF, a tokenized yield product) on January 22; 21Shares launched a BTC-backed Strategy Yield ETP (STRC) in Zurich on February 25; and Hashdex expanded the NCIQ in Q1 to cover BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and XLM.
Overall, new money, meaning ETFs for smaller market cap coins, is being launched, but more seasoned old money ETFs are still concentrated on high market cap legacy coins.
Noteworthy ETF applications (still pending approval as of April 23)
Morgan Stanley submitted an S-1 application for spot BTC (MSBT, which was listed in April), Solana, and ETH trusts in early January. Goldman submitted a Bitcoin premium yield/option strategy ETF application on April 14. Hyperliquid (HYPE) attracted four institutions competing to apply: Grayscale (GHYP, March 20), Bitwise (BHYP, April 10), 21Shares (THYP, April 14), and VanEck (VHYP), which have yet to be approved for listing. Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary all submitted applications for ADA spot ETFs, with CME's ADA futures contracts also launched on February 9. Truth Social (Yorkville) submitted applications for a BTC+ETH combo ETF and Cronos yield-enhanced ETF on February 13. Bitwise submitted applications for 11 crypto strategy ETFs (covering AAVE, UNI, ZEC, TAO, etc.). REX-Osprey/Defiance submitted applications for 27 crypto ETFs, including staking products and 3x leveraged products.
Currently, Hyperliquid's ETF is still the most anticipated.
ETF Fund Flow Situation (Q1 2026)
Spot BTC ETF fund flows have shown significant fluctuations: in January, there was a net outflow of approximately $1.6 billion (crypto.com data shows this marked the third consecutive month of net outflows), but with the buying pressure returning in March and April, the quarter eventually narrowed to a net positive value. BlackRock's IBIT remains the flagship product, with a net inflow of about $8.4 billion in Q1, but due to falling prices, AUM shrank from about $78 billion to approximately $54 billion. The Ethereum ETF set a record for 19 consecutive days of positive inflows at the beginning of January. The XRP ETF saw a net inflow of $1.07 billion for the quarter, with 43 consecutive days of positive inflows, significantly outperforming BTC-related products during the same period. The combined AUM of Solana ETFs (BSOL, FSOL) surpassed $1 billion in April, and Goldman Sachs disclosed a $108 million SOL ETF position.
The net inflow for the entire quarter was positive
Public Company Bitcoin Treasury Purchase Records
Strategy (MSTR) continued its intense accumulation this quarter. As of April 20, 2026, Strategy held a total of 815,061 BTC at an average price of $75,527, with a cost basis of about $61.6 billion. The Japanese listed company Metaplanet (3350.T) disclosed on January 1, 2026, that during this period, it purchased 4,279 BTC at an average price of $104,638, totaling over $380 million; in the entire first quarter, it accumulated 5,075 BTC, disclosing a total holding of 40,177 BTC by April 2, with a quarter purchase cost of about $400 million.
Strive (ASST) purchased 123 BTC on January 13 at an average price of $91,561, totaling $1.13 million; subsequently completed a full stock merger with Semler Scientific, after which the two companies held a total of 12,798 BTC, ranking 11th among corporate treasuries, with the merger completed on January 16. By mid-March, Strive had accumulated about 13,628 BTC through PIPE and the Semler merger.
BSTR Holdings (led by Adam Back and operated by Cantor SPAC) announced it would advance its listing with 30,021 BTC (valued at $2.14 billion). Twenty One Capital (XXI) held 43,514 BTC (valued over $3.1 billion) as of April 2, making it the second-largest Bitcoin holder among public companies. Hyperscale Data (GPUS) held 663 BTC as of April 21, entering with $50.3 million, targeting a treasury scale of $100 million.
Ethereum and staking-related corporate treasuries
BitMine Immersion (BMNR) is currently the largest Ethereum corporate treasury, having staked 74,880 ETH (approximately $219 million) through the MAVAN platform in Q1; in the week of April 20, 2026, it purchased 101,627 ETH (over $230 million), marking its largest single-week purchase of 2026 to date. As of April 20, this company holds approximately 5 million ETH, of which about 3.33 million have been staked, with an AUM of approximately $12.9 billion. SharpLink Gaming (SBET) is the second-largest Ethereum treasury, holding about 867,000 ETH (valued between $1.7 billion and $2.3 billion), nearly 100% staked, as disclosed on March 10.
Major sellers
Bitcoin mining companies were overall net sellers in Q1. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC for $1.1 billion between March 4 and 25 to repurchase convertible notes; Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC for $290 million; Nakamoto Holdings sold 284 BTC; Genius Group liquidated its entire position of 84 BTC on April 1. The Kingdom of Bhutan (Druk Holdings) has gradually transferred about $42 million in BTC this year in small amounts. Strategy alone accounted for 94% of the net increase in BTC for all listed companies in March.
Movement of Banks and Asset Management Institutions
Morgan Stanley not only submitted ETF applications but also applied for a national charter for a digital trust bank from the OCC in February 2026, announcing that it would open BTC/ETH/SOL trading to retail clients through E*Trade/Zerohash.
UBS announced on January 23 that it would offer BTC/ETH trading services to its Swiss private banking clients, covering its $7 trillion wealth management business.
Citigroup announced on February 26 at the Strategy World Conference the launch of institutional-grade BTC custody infrastructure. Standard Chartered began offering institutional BTC/ETH custody services in Hong Kong in January and is reportedly in talks to acquire full ownership of Zodia Custody (April 8).
BBVA has advised high-net-worth clients to allocate 3-7% of their assets to crypto.
Twelve European banks (BBVA, BNP Paribas, ING, UBS, KBC, Danske Bank, Swedbank, Catalunya Caixa, DZ Bank, DekaBank, LBBW, Banca Sella) have formed the Qivalis Euro Stablecoin Consortium based on the Fireblocks platform, compliant with the MiCA regulatory framework (April 21).
Vanguard opened third-party crypto ETFs to its 50 million brokerage clients on its $11 trillion platform. Fidelity reportedly attracted about $800 million in funds by offering a 1% BTC allocation option in its 401(k) pension plan.
Nomura Securities, Daiwa Securities, and SMBC Nikko Securities have all announced plans to launch cryptocurrency exchanges in Japan by the end of 2026.
13F disclosures (Q4 2025 positions, disclosed in February 2026)
Goldman's crypto ETF holdings totaled approximately $2.36 billion, covering BTC ($1.06 billion), ETH ($1 billion), XRP ($152 million), and SOL ($109 million), but BTC and ETH positions were reduced by 39% and 27%, respectively, quarter-on-quarter.
Mubadala (Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund) increased its IBIT holdings by 46% to 12.7 million shares (approximately $631 million), increasing its Bitcoin holdings by about 2,300 BTC during the market downturn.
Al Warda Investments (under the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) increased its IBIT holdings to 8.2 million shares (approx. $437 million), pushing the total crypto exposure of Abu Dhabi's sovereign capital to surpass $1 billion.
Millennium increased its IBIT holdings by about 67% (an increase of about 8,100 BTC, making it the largest holder overall).
Jane Street increased its IBIT holdings by over 50% to 20 million shares.
Harvard University reduced its IBIT holdings by 21.5% but established an ETH position for the first time (3.87 million shares of ETHA, valued at $86.8 million). Dartmouth College became the fourth Ivy League school to enter the market.
On the selling side: Brevan Howard significantly reduced its IBIT holdings by 85% (from 37.5 million shares to 5.5 million shares, equivalent to a reduction of about 17,700 BTC); Farallon reduced by 70% (approximately 2,800 BTC); Tudor sold about 1,300 BTC; the D.E. Shaw hedge fund halved its IBIT holdings; Sculptor nearly liquidated FBTC (reducing by about 90%).
Sovereign wealth funds and national governments
Aside from Mubadala and Al Warda, the Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund FSIL maintains a 1% Bitcoin allocation (about €8.5 million), becoming the first Eurozone sovereign wealth fund with BTC. El Salvador continues its "daily purchase of 1 BTC" strategy (currently holding 7,547 BTC, totaling about $635 million) and increased its gold reserves by $50 million on January 29. The Czech National Bank (which bought in November 2025, continuing into 2026) remains the only central bank globally to hold Bitcoin.
The US strategic Bitcoin reserve has seen no increases to date. CoinDesk confirmed on March 6 that the Trump administration's "progress has been slow"; the reserve still holds only about 328,372 seized BTC. Patrick Witt, a member of the White House Digital Assets Council, reiterated commitments, but no actual purchase actions have occurred to date. Among US states, only Texas injected $5 million into IBIT in November 2025 (another $5 million remains unused). New Hampshire and Arizona have relevant legislation but have not deployed funds. There have been ongoing reports about CalPERS planning to allocate 1% (about $500 million) to BTC, but CalPERS has not officially confirmed this.
Family Offices
Two surveys revealed starkly contrasting trends: JPMorgan Private Bank's 2026 Family Office Report indicated that among 333 surveyed institutions (average net worth of $1.6 billion), 89% reported having no Bitcoin allocations, with AI investments as their primary focus. Conversely, a survey by BNY Mellon Wealth/NOIA revealed that 74% of ultra-high-net-worth family offices are investing in or exploring crypto assets (a significant increase from 53% the previous year), with typical allocation ratios of 2-5%, about 5% for Asian institutions, and 2-4% for US and European institutions.
Part Two: Summary of Crypto Venture Capital Financing in Q1 2026
Q1 2026 saw a paradox in crypto VC financing: while total capital levels seemed robust (down 8% to 16% year-on-year), the number of transactions plummeted by 49%. The most comprehensive statistics come from Crypto-Fundraising.info (April 1), which recorded a total of 222 transactions including mergers and acquisitions, with total financing of $6.81 billion; excluding mergers, pure VC investment was 183 transactions, totaling $4.77 billion. DefiLlama/DL News (April 4, only tracking VCs) tracked 53 transactions over $10 million, totaling about $5 billion. JPMorgan estimates that total inflows into digital assets in Q1 were about $11 billion, roughly one-third of the same period in 2025. Galaxy Research's regularly released quarterly crypto VC report had not been published as of April 23, but its benchmark data from Q4 2025 ($8.5 billion/425 transactions) can serve for quarter-on-quarter reference.
Core Data
Compared to Q1 2025 (VC financing of $5.37 billion, 358 transactions) and Q4 2025 ($8.5 billion, 425 transactions), Q1 2026 saw total VC financing of approximately $4.77 billion, down 11% year-on-year and 44% quarter-on-quarter; the number of transactions was 183, a drastic drop of 49% year-on-year and 57% quarter-on-quarter. Notably, the average single VC financing amount surged by 76% year-on-year to $35.9 million (median $8 million), reflecting significant polarization: seed rounds were the most active by transaction count (37 transactions, totaling $252 million), while the average scale of four C-round financings reached as high as $108.8 million. Pre-Seed stage averages only $1.75 million, with the mid-tier market nearly shrinking.
Three trades swallowed half a quarter
This quarter's financing exhibited extreme concentration and significant delays. A total of $4.43 billion was raised in March alone (65% of the entire quarter), while February ended poorly with only $686 million.
Only the following three transactions totaled $3.4 billion, accounting for about half of the total disclosed financing for the quarter: the payment sector M&A target BVNK ($1.8 billion, March 17), the prediction market platform Kalshi (growth round led by Coatue, valued at $22 billion, $1 billion, March 19), and the strategic stake in Polymarket by the Intercontinental Exchange ($600 million, March 27).
The competition for leadership in prediction markets has already heated up in the financing sector.
Other noteworthy large financings include: Rain ($250 million C round, stablecoin payment sector, led by Iconiq/Dragonfly/Galaxy, valued at about $1.95 billion, January 9); BitGo completed its IPO on the NYSE, raising $213 million (January 22); XBTO strategic financing of $217 million (March 25); Flying Tulip token issuance of $206 million (FDV $1 billion); Whop received a $200 million investment from Tether (February 25); BlackOpal Latin America RWA financing of $200 million (January 8); Kraken/Payward completed a $200 million secondary market transaction led by Deutsche Börse, valued at $13.3 billion; LMAX Group received a $150 million investment from Ripple (January 15); Alpaca completed a $150 million D round; Bluesky received a $100 million B round led by Bain Capital Crypto (March 19); Anchorage Digital received a $100 million investment from Tether, valued at over $4 billion (February).
Sector Distribution: Payments and Prediction Markets outshine DeFi
The star sectors of the 2021 bull market cycle—gaming, NFTs, and L1 infrastructure—have almost vanished from the financing leaderboard.
The payments/stablecoin sector leads with $2.39 billion (35%, 17 transactions);
The prediction market follows closely with $1.72 billion (25.2%, 11 transactions);
Finance/CeFi ranks third with $835 million (12.2%, 25 transactions).
RWA (real-world assets) financing totaled $284 million (4.2%, 7 transactions)
Trading markets/platforms received $255 million (3.7%, 2 transactions)
Infrastructure/L1-L2 financing reached $184 million (2.7%, 12 transactions)
DeFi garnered only $89 million (1.3%, 5 transactions)
NFTs/gaming/metaverse are almost negligible.
The top three sectors accounted for 72% of the total disclosed funding for the quarter.
Active Investment Institutions
Coinbase Ventures led the number of institutional investor participation with 12 transactions, ahead of the second place by more than double. The following are: Tether (8 transactions), Animoca Brands (7 transactions), CMT Digital (6 transactions), and a16z crypto, Castle Island, Big Brain, Galaxy Digital (each with 5 transactions) in a tie.
The most active funds in March
Traditional financial institutions are entering the infrastructure sector with rare strength: Franklin Templeton participated in 4 deals, Intercontinental Exchange invested in Polymarket, Deutsche Börse took a stake in Kraken, and Castle Securities, Bain Capital, Sequoia Capital, and Alibaba also participated in relevant financing rounds in Q1. Geographically, the three largest financings (BVNK, Kalshi, Polymarket) and the BitGo IPO all originated from the US, indicating that US capital's share in crypto VC has continued at about 55% level from Q4 2025.
Conclusion: Institutional capital shows a barbell structure
At the beginning of 2026, the institutional crypto investment landscape is undergoing a dual polarization.
On the buy side, institutions with long-term holding beliefs, such as Strategy, BitMine, Metaplanet, Mubadala, and BlackRock's ETF system, are taking advantage of the market downturn to increase their positions, while tactical hedge funds (Brevan Howard, Tudor, Farallon) and most Bitcoin mining companies have shifted to net sellers. Only Strategy's Bitcoin purchases in Q1 nearly exceeded the total of all other listed companies combined, with its buying volume from April 13 to 19 setting a record for the third-largest weekly purchase in history.
On the venture capital side, a similar polarizing pattern is emerging: massive financings in payments and prediction markets continue to expand, while small and medium-sized projects are generally facing a funding drought. The shifting leadership in sectors—from DeFi/NFT/gaming to stablecoins, prediction markets, and compliant CeFi infrastructure—indicates that the industry's growth engine is gradually transitioning from speculative crypto-native narratives to trading models closer to regulated fintech.
The greatest current uncertainty comes from the US strategic Bitcoin reserve: despite high-profile declarations from the administration for over a year, actual capital deployment remains at zero. If funding pathways are opened in the second half of 2026 (through the Defense Authorization Act), it would fundamentally reshape market demand patterns. Until then, the true buyers are corporate treasuries and sovereign wealth funds, not Washington.