If the price **fails to effectively break through the resistance range of 4040-4080 USD**, and further **falls below the key support level of 3920 USD**, then a short-term downtrend may be confirmed.
- **Next target**: It may continue to probe towards **3820-3800 USD**.
- **Market dynamics**: In this case, the hourly technical indicators (such as MACD) show that bearish strength still dominates.
#### **Scenario Two: Stabilization and rebound (requires accompanying trading volume)**
If the price receives strong support and stabilizes above **3920 USD**, along with an increase in trading volume, it may attempt to challenge the aforementioned resistance levels.
- **Key signal**: It is crucial to closely monitor whether the price can **recover and stay above 4080 USD**. If successful, it may retest the high resistance levels of **4120 USD or even 4232 USD**.
- **Potential catalyst**: According to Coinglass data, if the price breaks above 4100 USD, it will trigger a large amount of short contract liquidations, which could serve as “fuel” to accelerate the price increase.
### 💡 Trader's Considerations
- **Contradictory technical indicators**: Currently, the daily MACD still shows signs of a bullish crossover, but the hourly MACD is leaning bearish, reflecting increased short-term volatility with an unclear direction.
- **Market sentiment**: The market fear and greed index has fallen from high levels into the fear zone, which usually indicates a return to rational market sentiment and can sometimes create conditions for a rebound.
- **Whale movements**: On-chain data shows that whale addresses have increased their holdings against the market trend during the recent decline, which can be seen as a potential positive signal.
- **Next target**: It may continue to probe towards **3820-3800 USD**.
- **Market dynamics**: In this case, the hourly technical indicators (such as MACD) show that bearish strength still dominates.
#### **Scenario Two: Stabilization and rebound (requires accompanying trading volume)**
If the price receives strong support and stabilizes above **3920 USD**, along with an increase in trading volume, it may attempt to challenge the aforementioned resistance levels.
- **Key signal**: It is crucial to closely monitor whether the price can **recover and stay above 4080 USD**. If successful, it may retest the high resistance levels of **4120 USD or even 4232 USD**.
- **Potential catalyst**: According to Coinglass data, if the price breaks above 4100 USD, it will trigger a large amount of short contract liquidations, which could serve as “fuel” to accelerate the price increase.
### 💡 Trader's Considerations
- **Contradictory technical indicators**: Currently, the daily MACD still shows signs of a bullish crossover, but the hourly MACD is leaning bearish, reflecting increased short-term volatility with an unclear direction.
- **Market sentiment**: The market fear and greed index has fallen from high levels into the fear zone, which usually indicates a return to rational market sentiment and can sometimes create conditions for a rebound.
- **Whale movements**: On-chain data shows that whale addresses have increased their holdings against the market trend during the recent decline, which can be seen as a potential positive signal.